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So Ive finally finished my long and exhausting remap of the FL State House. Its late and Im tired so Ill provide more analysis later. This map created a very even playing field for the Democrats and Republicans in Florida, creating about 39 lean D seats, 40 lean R seats, and 21 true tossups. I drew this map without even looking at partisan numbers, only looking at major city boundries and county boundries. Obviously there were numbers calls I made that a court (which is where I believe a map will be decided) might otherwise decide. Im going to split this in 3 seperate diaries because there are way too many districts to write on.

Lets start with North Florida:

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Pensacola area:

District 1, 3 and 4 are Safe Republican

District 2: (Green) Believe it or not a tossup 52-48 McCain district can be made in Pensacola, just goes to show how Rep-friendly the maps are right now. Tossup

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Panhandle:

District 5: nothing to see here, more safe R rural territory

District 6: same as above

District 7: Rep Alan Williams' district isn't AA majority or VRA protected anyway, but it does become a tossup with it having to become compact, hes a team player though so I think hell take one for the team here. Tossup

District 8: Becomes a Tallahassee core district, its white majority but would probably elect talented young AA politicans like City Commissioner Andrew Gillum or County Comm. Nick Maddox. Safe Dem

District 9: Michelle Rehwinkle-Vasilinda wont like this district, it takes in alot of rural Tallahassee suburbs but I think her willingness to cross the aisle will help her hold on. Tossup

District 10: more Republican rural counties. Safe R

District 11: in between Tallahassee and Jacksonville, nothing else interesting here. Safe R

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District 12: (Cornflower blue) white Republican suburbs. Safe R

District 13: (Dark Salmon) less Republican, maybe suseptable to wave years but otherwise, Safe R

District 14: (Olive) Part of the Jacksonville inner-city, and heavily AA, core. Safe D

District 15: (Dark Orange) The rest of the inner city core, this may also be where Mayor-elect Alvin Brown lives as well. Safe D

District 16: (Lime) more Republican suburbs. Safe R

District 17: (yellow) alright, im repeating myself but what can you do. Safe R

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Gainesville area:

District 18: the eastern half of Alachua County, it contains about half of Gainesville. Safe D

District 19: the western half of Alachua plus some rural counties, its about 51-49 McCain. Tossup

Alright so far that brings us to 4 Safe Dems, 11 Safe Republicans, and 4 tossups. This is better than the current map as we only have 4 Safe Dems and no tossups in north florida. Next Ill post Tampa to Orlando, stay tuned

Poll

Would this map pass fair-redistricting standards ?

68%11 votes
31%5 votes

| 16 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Where in fort liquordale? (0+ / 0-)

    This comment may not be reproduced or excerpted on other sites without my express written permission.

    by psilocynic on Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 10:25:10 PM PDT

  •  Interesting. Will the GOP controlled..... (0+ / 0-)

    ...Florida Legislature give your plan a go?

    •  Might have no choice (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      I believe that something like my map is as close to compact as you can make it, if they do anything different itll probably throw the central fl districts into chaos and the courts would strike it down.

    •  Not a chance in hell (0+ / 0-)

      The R's have been in control so long their hubris has hubris.

      They will deliver the Federal seats first because there is aa gain of two seats.

      I believe their plan is to delay the Legislative redistricting plan presentation until the clock nearly runs out and there is too little to implement alternatives which forces redistricitng into the courts too late for 2012 elections.

      This could cause the old districts to remain for one more election which may be the R's best alternative, capitulate to a judicial redraw but gain another election with the old gerrymanders.

      I think this has happened in other states but do not claim to have researched that assertation and am relying on memory from the 1970's or 1980's.

      Florida's demographics allow for some very interesting redistricing with the Democratic dominant S Florida counties which are an amalgam of communities that grew together.

      Political affinity is self selected in these communities tied to waterfronts and golf courses.

      The requirement of "compact districts" is the only real element that prevents the gerrymandering the R's desire.

       

      "A functioning Democracy must defy economic interests of the elites on behalf of citizens" Christopher Hedges Econ 3.50&Soc. 5.79

      by wmc418 on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 05:18:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nope (0+ / 0-)

      They'll push the new remapping standards to the limit with another grotesque gerrymander.  What happens in court is anyone's guess.  Even with compact districts it's fairly easy for a GOP gerrymander given how clustered Florida Dems are in a few places.

  •  Admire your efforts (0+ / 0-)

    I signed up at the Florida Legislature's website to experiment with redistricting as they suggested.  When I received the link to establish a password, I began to actually think about how you establish these districts.  I was stopped dead in my tracks when I began to realize how complicated it would be to draw these lines.  So, I admire your efforts.  It looks like this could be a workable plan.  For my money, I would just like to see reasonably drawn lines that are as neutral as possible.  It does us no good to gerrymander on either side.  Thanks for investing the time and mental energy in preparing this new map.

  •  comments (0+ / 0-)

    LD3 shouldn't run all the way up to Alabama if it doesn't need to.  Put those precincts in the 1st, which will push the 2nd and 3rd a bit more north.

    Jacksonville must be drawn with 2 50% AA by VAP districts (which can easily be done).

    It seems like the western portion of the 10th should be put in the 9th to make both of those districts more regular looking.

    I don't think a 52% McCain district is exactly a tossup.  This is going to be an R+5 or R+6 district that will require a strong conservadem to hold.  Dems only hold a handful of congressional seats like this (think Altmire, McIntyre, Shuler, Mathseon, Boren).  Its obviously easier to get than a 60% McCain district, but its definitely an uphill battle.

  •  Nice work (0+ / 0-)

    And a lot of work!

    Daves Redistricting: 49 states w/ 2010 data. 22 states w/ election data.

    by dgb on Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 10:56:36 AM PDT

  •  Do you want 2submit your plan to the Legislature? (0+ / 0-)

    If you want to submit your State House plan to the Florida House of Representatives for consideration, send us the .txt or .doj file to mydistrictbuilder@myfloridahouse.gov

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