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Next part of my series on what fair and compact redistricting could do to the Florida State House. This part looks at South Florida, where Republican gerrymandering has allowed them to have way more seats than what their county performances entitle them to.

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Broward County:

I wont waste too much time here, the shapes arent as clean as Id like because I had to keep District 93 and 94 50 % AA majority. The only important things to know here is that the Republican seat, District 91, now voted for Obama 51-47 as opposed to its current 52-48 McCain configuration and District 97 (the lime green one) is now solidly Democratic.

9 Safe Dems, 1 lean Dem

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Miami-Dade County:

District 102: 59-41 McCain. Safe Republican
District 103: 83-17 Obama, Safe Dem
District 104: 86-14 Obama, Safe Dem
District 106: 71-29 Obama, Safe Dem
District 107: 55-45 Obama, Safe Dem
District 108: 75-25 Obama, Safe Dem
District 109: 53-47 Obama, Tossup
District 110: 44-56 McCain, Safe Republican
District 111: 40-60 McCain, Safe Republican
District 112: 65-35 Obama, Safe Dem
District 113: 63-37 Obama, Safe Dem
District 114: 46-53 McCain, Tossup
District 115:49.5-50.5 McCain, Tossup
District 116: 58-42 Obama, Safe Dem
District 117: 45-55 McCain, Safe Republican
District 118: 49.6-50.4 McCain, Tossup

9 Safe Dems, 4 Safe Republicans, 4 tossups

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Palm Beach County:

District 78: 65-35 Obama, Safe Dem
District 82: 44-56 McCain, Safe Republican
District 83: 56-44 Obama, Safe Dem
District 84: 68-32 Obama, Safe Dem
District 85: 61-39 Obama, Safe Dem
District 86: 65-35 Obama, Safe Dem
District 87: 59-41 Obama, Safe Dem
District 88: 65-35 Obama, Safe Dem
District 90: 63-37 Obama, Safe Dem

8 Safe Dems, 1 Safe Republican

26 Safe Democrats, 5 Safe Republicans, 5 tossups

when added to the north florida districts, that makes 30 Safe Democrats, 16 Safe Republicans, 9 tossups. Next up, central florida.

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Comment Preferences

  •  good work (0+ / 0-)

    Seeing the districts drawn this way shows clearly there is no way when the congressional districts are drawn that Allen West has no chance to stay in office in this part of the state (unless he moves to Hialeah)

  •  can you turn county lines on? (0+ / 0-)

    It's hard to tell what I'm looking at with no frame of reference.

    •  also... (0+ / 0-)

      Can you identify the minority-majority districts?  By my count, there should be at least 12 Hispanic districts and 6-7 AA districts.

      •  There are (0+ / 0-)

        District 93, 94, 103, 104 are AA majority

        District 102, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 119, 120 are Hispanic majority

        So that makes 13 Hispanic districts and 4 AA districts, there are also 4 districts that are majority minority but have about even splits between the two groups.

    •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

      I dont know exactly how to do that, kinda new at this. But the easy way to tell is the Broward border with miami dade is the line extending from the border of the salmon and green districts on the west all the way across. The Broward border with Palm Beach is line seperating the salmon from light blueish district.

  •  VRA legal map (0+ / 0-)

    So you got me curious as to what a legal VRA-compliant map might look like.  Here's what I came up with:


    Palm Beach County

    85 (Jupiter/Juno Beach): 48% Obama, Lean R
    86 (Palm Beach Gardens/Riviera Beach/Cypress Lakes): 66% Obama, Safe D
    87 (Royal Palm Beach/Belle Glade): 60% Obama, Safe D
    88 (West Palm Beach): 67% Obama, Safe D
    89 (Lake Worth): 65% Obama, Safe D
    90 (Boynton Beach): 65% Obama, Safe D
    91 (Delray Beach): 69% Obama, Safe D
    92 (Boca Raton): 54% Obama, Tossup


    Broward County

    93 (splits Broward and WPB): 63% Obama, Safe D
    94 (Coral Springs): 61% Obama, Safe D
    95 (Margate, Tamarac): 72% Obama, Safe D
    96 (Sunrise/Plantation): 67% Obama, Safe D
    97 (Lauderdale Lakes): 89% Obama, Safe D, AA-majority
    98 (Fort Lauderdale to Deerfield Beach): 86% Obama, Safe D, AA-majority
    99 (Fort Lauderdale to Deerfield Beach): 50% Obama, Tossup
    100 (Danai/Hallandale Beach): 64% Obama, Safe D
    101 (Weston): 55% Obama, Lean D
    102 (Hollywood/Davie): 66% Obama, Safe D
    108 (Pembroke Pines): 63% Obama, Safe D, Hispanic majority


    Miami-Dade County

    103 (splits Miami and Broward): 88% Obama, Safe D, AA majority
    104 (North Miami Beach): 86% Obama, Safe D, AA majority
    105 (Golden Glades/Miami Shores): 89% Obama, Safe D, AA majority
    106 (Brownsville): 93% Obama, Safe D, AA majority
    107 (Aventura to Bayshore): 60% Obama, Safe D
    109 (Miami Lakes): 45% Obama, Safe R, Hispanic majority
    110 (Doral): 41% Obama, Safe R, Hispanic majority
    111 (Hialeah): 39% Obama, Safe R, Hispanic majority
    112 (Coral Gables): 39% Obama, Safe R, Hispanic majority
    113 (Fountainbleau/University Park): 35% Obama, Safe R, Hispanic majority
    114 (Miami): 54% Obama, Tossup, Hispanic majority
    115 (South Miami): 50% Obama, Tossup, Hispanic majority
    116 (Kendale Lakes): 41% Obama, Safe R, Hispanic majority
    117 (Palmetto Bay): 67% Obama, Safe D, Hispanic majority
    118 (The Hammocks): 49% Obama, Lean R, Hispanic majority
    119 (Homestead): 69% Obama, Safe D, Hispanic majority
    120 (Key West to Miami Beach): 56% Obama, Lean D

    6 AA majority
    12 Hispanic majority

    22 Safe D, 2 Lean D, 4 Tossup, 2 Lean R, 6 Safe R
    Districts ended up, for the most part, being pretty compact.

    •  I was under the impression (0+ / 0-)

      that only 4 AA seats are actually VRA protected, the other two were Dem vote sinks. I spoke with my State Rep yesterday and thats what I was told. 3 of my "coalition" seats were over 40 percent AA so Im sure I could bump them up

      •  in a nut shell (0+ / 0-)

        If you CAN draw a COMPACT 50%+ VAP seat, then you MUST draw a 50%+ VAP seat.  As you can see from my maps, my AA-majority districts are very compact.  There are only two reasons to draw 4 instead of 6 AA districts:

        1) You wanted to pack as many AAs as possible into the smallest number of districts possible (probably end up with 2 70%+ AA districts in Miami-Dade and 1 in Broward)

        OR

        2) You wanted to spread the black voters around to create more safe Dem seats.

        Based on your numbers, I'm going to guess you were trying to create as many safe Dem seats as possible.  In any event, taking 2 50% VAP AA seats and now drawing them with less than 50% VAP would be a no-no.

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