Hoboken, NJ
Public Policy Polling (7/15-18, New Jersey voters, 1/6-9 in parens):
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 44 (41)
Tom Kean, Jr. (R): 39 (39)
Undecided: 16 (19)
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 48 (45)
Kim Guadagno (R): 34 (30)
Undecided: 18 (24)
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 48
Mike Doherty (R): 35
Undecided: 17
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 48
Woody Johnson (R): 30
Undecided: 22
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 48
Joseph Kyrillos (R): 29
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Probably nine times out of ten, I agree with what Tom Jensen says. But on this occasion, I'm going to dissent. Tom says: "Robert Menendez might be the most vulnerable Democratic senator up for reelection next year that no one's talking about." There are good reasons why no one is talking about Menendez, though, and Tom in fact runs through several of them in his post. The fundamental problem for Republicans is this: If Menendez is at 48 (an improvement from his January numbers), how on earth are they supposed to prevent him from getting to 50%+1 in the state of New Jersey?
I'm not saying Menendez is a lock, I'm not saying he can't falter, and I'm not saying that the economy couldn't get so bad that it recreates the 2009 electorate which brought Chris Christie to power. All of this could happen, and the economic news has been sucking hard lately. But there's a difference between hoping for a path to victory and having a path to victory—and hope is not a plan.
Obviously Tom Kean, Jr. is a wrinkle here, but let's not forget that he lost to Menendez by nine points in 2006, when the latter had only been an appointed Senator for a brief time. I'm also convinced that a chunk of voters still keep confusing him with his much better-liked father, Tom Kean, Sr., the former governor and head of the 9/11 Commission. That'll be a tougher mistake to make come Nov. 2012 if Kean runs—but it's not clear to me whether he's even interested in a rematch. (Has anyone even gotten a quote from him this cycle?) I'm not saying it'll be an easy race or one that we can take for granted, but at the end of the day, I'm still mostly positive on Menendez's chances.