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Senate:

FL-Sen: This is awfully thin, but could GOP Rep. Connie Mack be thinking about getting back into the Senate race, now that Mike Haridopolos is out? Actually, Mack was never in in the first place — he just pulled the plug on a widely-expected run at the last second. But the St. Pete Times notes that Mack was seen "meeting with political strategist Arthur Finkelstein" in DC the other day… and another tea-leaf is his vote against his own party's "Cut, Cap, and Balance" legislation. Mack was one of only nine Republicans to do so, and his stated reasons are clearly from the right. Is he hoping to position himself as a conservative standard-bearer? Why else stick his neck out there like this? (Hat-tip: Zornorph)

MA-Sen: Here's a cute one for ya: The Koch Industries PAC has now maxed out to Sen. Scott Brown, giving him $10K for his re-election (after giving him $5K before the Jan. 2010 special). Brown may have called this the people's seat... but he didn't say which people.

MI-Sen: I told you I thought Pete Hoekstra wasn't exactly fearsome. Just a day after he changed his mind and decided to run against Debbie Stabenow, it's looking likely that the Republican ex-congressman will face a serious primary challenge. That challenge comes in the form of Clark Durant, the founder of a company called Cornerstone Schools, which developed a network of Christian private schools in inner-city Detroit. Cameron Joseph of The Hill ads that Durant has a "deep donor network" that he cultivated to launch these schools. (And remember, also, that Hoekstra managed a cruddy 27% second-place finish in the gubernatorial primary last year, plus his fundraising was sucky, too — just $1.3 million.)

But don't get cocky. After posting a mediocre 41-43 job approval rating in EPIC-MRA's May poll, Stabenow now sinks to 38-51 in their newest survey (PDF). With numbers like these, Stabenow concerns me, even if her opposition is not top-shelf.

Gubernatorial:

LA-Gov: Lamar Parmentel offers some background on state Sen. Rob Marionneaux, whom we mentioned the other day as a possible Dem challenger to Gov. Bobby Jindal.

NJ-Gov: PPP also has a gubernatorial half to their Garden State poll (see our Senate writeup here), and they find Chris Christie's approvals predictably slipping, from 48-45 in January to 43-53 now. And though it's a long way away, they also see him trailing several Democrats, while also tying 2009 opponent Jon Corzine and, for kicks, The Boss — aka Bruce Springsteen, probably the best thing to ever come out of New Jersey.

OH-Gov, OH SB5: Another day, another bad poll for GOP Gov. John Kasich — and a good one for opponents of SB5, Ohio's new anti-collective bargaining law. Quinnipiac pegs Kasich's approvals at 35-50, down from 38-49 in mid-May. As for SB5, voters now want to repeal it by a 56-32 spread, up from 54-36.

WI-Gov: A couple of weeks ago, we mentioned that septuagenarian ex-Rep. David Obey refused to give a straight answer when asked if he'd run for governor in a potential Scott Walker recall. In a new interview with Politico, he's still refusing to rule it out, though Alex Isenstadt says that "Democrats familiar with Obey’s thinking" say he is "mostly interested in filling out the remainder of Walker’s four-year term and would likely forgo a longer stay in office."

House:

FL-25: State Rep. Luis Garcia really meant it when he said he'd formally announce his run against ethically troubled GOP freshman David Rivera before the end of the summer. The Democrat made his entry into the race official yesterday, and man does he have an awesome nickname: el bombero, the firefighter, thanks to his service as fire chief of Miami Beach.

IL-10: State Rep. Carol Sente, who said she was thinking about the race last week, said she won't join the Democratic field in the re-drawn 10th CD. Attorney Bob McKenzie is out as well. That leaves just two Dems: Activist Ilya Sheyman and consultant Brad Schneider. Sheyman raised about $108K in Q2, while Schneider pulled in $321K (all in the final month).

NC-07: Rep. Mike McIntyre says he'll run in the latest iteration of the 7th CD (his current district), even though his home in Robeson County was moved into fellow Dem Larry Kissell's district, and even though the district was made a good bit redder (it's now 58-42 McCain). Meanwhile, Ilario Pantano, McIntyre's 2010 challenger who was already staging a rematch bid, confirms that he, too, will still run in the 7th. Also on the GOP side, state Sen. David Rouzer says he plans to run in the re-drawn district. Rouzer previously worked for Sens. Jesse Helms and Liddy Dole, and also served in the Bush administration.

NV-0?: As expected, Dem ex-Rep. Dina Titus officially launched her comeback bid on Tuesday, but of course we still don't know exactly where she'll run. By my count, that makes her the sixth Democrat who lost in 2010 to do so. The others: Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Alan Grayson (FL-26, formerly held FL-08), Bill Foster (IL-11, formerly held IL-14), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23).

RI-01: This doesn't sound too good: Aaron Swartz, the co-founded of a PAC called Demand Progress, was just arrested for allegedly hacking into a subscription-only database of academic articles called JSTOR and downloading four million articles (nearly the entire catalog). Why am I writing about this here at Daily Kos Elections? Because Demand Progress's other founder is ex-state Rep. David Segal, a candidate for last year's RI-01 open seat Democratic primary who is weighing a second run for the seat (now held by Dem Rep. David Cicilline). Segal appears to be defending Swartz (who had access to JSTOR through his academic affiliations), saying the arrest “makes no sense,” and is equivalent to “trying to put someone in jail for allegedly checking too many books out of the library.”

Other Races:

Special Elections: A recap of Tuesday night's special elections in Georgia, from Johnny Longtorso:

• SD-26 will go to a runoff between Democrats Miriam Paris and David Lucas. Paris came in first with 45%, Lucas with 39%. Republican Bobby Gale was a distant third, with 16%.

• HD-113 was, as expected, a Republican victory: Charles Williams defeated Democrat Dan Matthews by a 62-38 margin.

• HD-139 was a D-on-D fight, and James Beverly was the victor, winning 65-35 over Anissa Jones.

Grab Bag:

Votes: Speaking of that "Cut, Cap and Balance" vote (see FL-Sen item above), five usual-suspect Democrats voted in favor: Dan Boren, Jim Matheson, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler, and Jim Cooper. I guess Cooper's a little less expected, but he's a flaming d-bag on so many things.

The GOP nays are a little harder to figure: Michele Bachmann, Paul Broun, Quico Canseco, Scott DesJarlais, Morgan Griffith, Walter Jones, Ron Paul, Dana Rohrabacher, and the aforementioned Connie Mack. I suspect most of these are straight up votes against from the right, though Jones and Paul are definitely members of the weirdo caucus. Not sure what Quico is thinking; he's the one guy on this list in a genuinely vulnerable district, but his statement sounds just like Mack's – i.e., also opposing the bill from the right.

Redistricting Roundup:

NC Redistricting: I guess the North Carolina GOP is trying to sow dissension among Democratic ranks, because they're "blaming" the new map on Dem Rep. G.K. Butterfield, who they say insisted that five Section 5-covered counties be returned to his district. That, they claim, forced all the other changes, like screwing Mike McIntyre even harder. Butterfield hotly denies this, but all of these Republican protest are nonsense, of course — it's like the redistricting equivalent of taunting your kid brother with "Why are you hitting yourself?"

WI Redistricting: Well, there you have it, folks. The state Assembly passed the Republican-drafted legislative and congressional plans almost strictly along party lines yesterday, with all Democrats voting against both sets of maps. The state Senate did the same thing a day earlier Now it all goes to Gov. Scott Walker for his signature.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Interesting tweet from Nate Silver (8+ / 0-)

    http://twitter.com/...

    Another wave coming? Just 30% say they'd vote to re-elect their member of Congress. Figures comparable to 1994, 2010. http://t.co/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 05:20:29 AM PDT

  •  2010 omen: Another bad jobs report.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://finance.yahoo.com/...=

    Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 418,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 410,000 from a previously reported 405,000.

    "We're just stuck in this trend between 410,000 and 430,000. Generally we're just really not seeing any improvement but also not much worsening," said Jeffrey Greenberg, an economist with Nomura Securities in New York.

    Stock index futures held earlier gains after the data, while the dollar extended losses against the euro.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 06:34:08 AM PDT

  •  McIntyre (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    melvynny, TheUnknown285, bear83, JGibson

    is a blue dog, he's never been a strong progressive..  I wish he could be primaried by a progressive candidate.

    "Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens." -Jimi Hendrix

    by Four of Nine on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 06:41:34 AM PDT

  •  pretty much sums up the entire GOP philosophy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    all of these Republican protest are nonsense, of course — it's like the redistricting equivalent of taunting your kid brother with "Why are you hitting yourself?"

    I am off my metas! Präsidentenelf-maßschach; Warning-Some Snark Above join the DAILY KOS UNIVERSITY "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03)

    by annieli on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 06:43:03 AM PDT

  •  McIntyre (4+ / 0-)

    NC-07: Rep. Mike McIntyre is a terrible Democrat--he actually ran ads last year blaming Nancy Pelosi for all our economic problems.  He should be primaried--even the threat of same might induce him to move somewhat away from his deserved DINO persona.

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 06:46:03 AM PDT

    •  Primarying McIntyre makes things easier for Rs (6+ / 0-)

      He's running in a district that's 5 points more R than before.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:07:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  McIntyre (8+ / 0-)

      While I agree with your point that Mike McIntyre has a miserable voting record, O'Goldy is correct here. This district is significantly redder after the 2nd round of redistricting than it once was and it is very very hard to see an traditional North Carolina Democrat holding this seat, much less a very conservative Democrat like Mike McIntyre.

      And the main alternative at this time to Mike McIntyre (the GOP primary seems likely to attract several more Republicans once the dust settles from redistricting).  But for now, the main alternative is the deceitful Illario Pantano and we really don't need a white version of Alan West from North Carolina in the House.

      I am all for Democrats primarying fallen Dems, but you have to do it intelligently, and target wise primary contests that do not generate more Republicans in the House.

      With the exception, perhaps, of the quixotic Walter Jones, just compare Miike McIntyre to Virgina Foxx, or Howard Coble, or Patrick McHenry or Sue Myrick and see if your opinion of McIntyre does not improve a bit compared to the average North Carolina Republican alternative.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:28:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it is not often i agree with you in a primary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        You are generally on the purity side. This is surprising.

        •  Purity? (6+ / 0-)

          From my prospective, I am on the side of getting the best set of Democrats possible into the Congress.

          You just have not followed me for very long I suspect.  

          I was a big promoter of Nancy Palmer Boyda of Kansas who was defeated by Lynn Jenkins.  Boyda  was hardly a liberal firebrand (we share a distant g-g-g-g-grandfather Frederick Woolford), and I took incoming fire from relentless progressives who were offended that Nancy Palmer Boyda voted for the Iraq war.

          I kept pointing out that Palmer's CD at the time contained THREE military bases within its boundaries, how in the hell could anyone expect Boyda to vote against the war?  For pointing that out I was down-rated as a "pro war" "troll" (which was in of itself ridiculous as I opposed Iraq from the very start and was one of those demanding evidence of WMD, which of course there wasn't any).

          So "purity" is in the eyes of the beholder.  I am a lot more realistic than you give me credit for,  we butted heads because you are seemingly always on the conservative side of competitive primaries that are not at risk of creating new House Republicans.

          Ask me about Duckworth-Krisnamoorthi, or the Wisconsin Senate race, and I guess I side with "purity".  But in NC-7 all I see is a choice between an awful Dem and an unacceptable Alan West type Republican, so go Mike McIntyre!

          "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

          by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 08:10:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Question: (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            How did Boyda vote for the Iraq war if she wasn't in Congress at the time? Are you talking about supplement stuff after she was elected in 2006?

            Anyway, I can only speak for myself here, but I've basically settled on the following mindset: if you are willing to run as a Democrat and give our legislation a fair hearing AND not actively hurt our party by attacking our leadership, I'll support you, at least rhetorically. What annoys me more than something like a vote against health care reform is the fact that some of these guys appear to go out of their way to attack the party and the leadership. I get why, of course: it's political, and in a tight race, politicians do all sorts of things short of selling their families into white slavery to win. But is that hard to say that you respect someone like Pelosi while having no problem voting against the agenda when you don't agree? Are the people that are obsessed with hating her ever going to consider voting for you? I doubt it. There's such a thing as having your side's back, having some faith and loyalty.

            •  HR 2237 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              is the bill in the 2006/7 Congress that generated all the controversy.  The debate was on affirming Bush's war policies, and Boyda, bowing to pressure from her constituents living in the 3 military bases in her CD voted with the Bush administration.

              "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

              by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 08:52:34 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  For the record... (0+ / 0-)

                I'm pretty sure there are only two active military bases in KS-02: Fort Riley & Fort Leavenworth.

                Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

                by arealmc on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 09:41:54 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  at the time there were three (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  thurst, MichaelNY

                  I know because it was a red hot comment war when anti-war extremists tried to take my scalp and were down rating me (falsely) as a pro-war troll for defending Nancy Boyda.  The other installation may not have been as large as the two Forts you name, it may have been another smaller type of military installation.  And in fact, one of the three ran the border of the CD so it may have been split between two congressional districts.

                  When I am down rated and called a troll for supporting an Iraq war I actually opposed, I tend to remember the insult and surrounding events rather well.  It was the one time I was truly and totaly offended here at DailyKos (DKE was still SSP at the time).

                  But really, you have TWO full fledged military Forts in the district and non-Kansas progressives expected Boyda to vote anti-war?  Really?  I disagreed with Boyda on those votes as well, I just refused to blame her for legitimately representing her constituents.

                  "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                  by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:12:22 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  you have never been otherwise offended at Kos? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I can't stand the main page. I come to the subside only because ssp moved. I never venture off of this subside because I would probably either get banned, or be HR'd by every quack out there that doesn't like to face certain facts.

                    •  not really (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I occasionally get irked for an hour or two, but as long as people are debating with facts, and not ridiculous labeling and name-calling, I have a mostly thick skin.  And like you, a huge percentage of my comments are in DKE diaries where less misbehavior occurs.  Remember, the Boyda incident played out on main page diaries, not SSP/DKE diaries, and it was 2006/7 when standards of conduct with down-ratings and rudeness were much more in flux than currently is the case.  Think of it as the wild west of progressivism, lol.

                      And my guess is my personal politics are closer to main stream DK Dem than yours appear to be.  So your opinions are more likely to attract the type of unreasonable negative attention than my opinions over a long period of time.

                      But the Boyda incident proves to me no one is immune to a lynching here excepting perhaps the editors and Kos, and the editors and Kos do not engage in the type of behavior we are talking about anyway, and at DKE David would likely have interceded had the Boyda comments been posted at SSP rather than DK.

                      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                      by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 11:26:05 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  Whether or not we like it, (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    that can be part of the game.

                    But there's also the possibility that she was voting how she felt she should vote, regardless of the district. I could easily be wrong here, so correct me if I am, but perhaps she just believed in how she was voting. I happen to think a lot of us, myself included, forget that politicians aren't always calculating how to get reelected.

                    •  Boyda (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Was not a true progressive.  I know her rather conservative father Sam Palmer from genealogy and Nancy never perceived herself as being a progressive champion.  Her background was from the Corporate world, her childhood was in a conservative Christian household, she is not noticeably ideological.

                      I would describe Boyda as a Democrat who wanted to make government better serve the needs of the people.  

                      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

                      by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 12:13:06 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Right, but she was a Democrat. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        It would have been a lot easier for her to run as a Republican, at least back then. She chose to run as a Democrat, as do a lot of these guys. That's definitely something to keep in mind, I think.

          •  ya know (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, MichaelNY

            I don't have a horse in either the Duckworth primary, nor the Wisconsin primary. I want to see polls on both before I back a candidate. My first choice for WI-sen is Feingold,as he polled best in the one poll we have, and he isn't exactly the conservative in the race. It's if he takes a pass that there is disagreement. I saw one single iteration of matchups for WI-SEN in that PPP poll where the democrat trailed (even within the MoE) and that matchup had Baldwin as the Democrat. That raises HUGE red flags for me. I also don't like a lot of the reasoning some people are backing her. I find it appalling that some people would either vote for or against a candidate, even in some small part, due to their sexuality. I find that sickening when either sides does it. If more polling comes out and shows Baldwin as the strongest candidate in the general election, I will cross the river to knock on doors for her, but I need to see that first.

            •  How is supporting underrepresented minorities (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

              for higher office "sickening," especially as a secondary consideration to things like ideology and effectiveness? I bet a lot of the people who are excited for Tammy because she's Lesbian would back Chris Murphy in Connecticut, even though he's a white guy running against an Asian man and a woman.

              •  I have to say I'm pretty offended by (0+ / 0-)

                OGGoldy's "sickening" comment. How is it sickening to want to make history? To finally have a member of the LGBT community in the Senate. I don't think it is, in the slightest. Not to mention the one poll of the GE showed her to have the overall strength when compared to Kagen and Kind. Oh and I'm one of those people that supports Chris Murphy. Although you might see me defending Susan Bysiewicz, from what I consider to be character assassination. I do full hardily support Murphy, but if Bysiewicz were to win, I don't think she would be the disaster many others think she is.

                19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 01:26:51 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I don't feel that certain things should matter (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack, MichaelNY

                I don't care who Baldwin has in bed at night. None of my business.

                I also don't buy the whole underrepresented minority argument. There are more nontheists than homosexuals in this country. I am a proud member of that community. However, the only such member of congress is Pete Stark, and I find his brand of politics to be abrasive and counterproductive to expanding the party. And I don't seek out politicians who share my religious beliefs because I feel we are under represented (even though mathematically, we are). I am also a Finn, and there are no Finnish-Americans in congress at all. I don't seek out politicians that have a copious amount vowels in their last name, or last names that end in -ala, or -nen. Americans of Finnish ancestry are as underrepresented as possible, yet I do not complain about it, because it really doesn't matter.

                The moral of the story is that you should not base your candidate selection on things like that. I find it as morally indefensible to vote FOR someone for being gay/black/Finnish/nontheist/whatever as it is to vote AGAINST them for the same reason. If you would be offended by someone say "I would never vote for a person who is blank" you really should think twice about saying the sentence "I will vote for someone because they are blank"

                I don't mean to offend anyone here, but ultimately this is a position I hold firm to, and will not be changing.

                •  I'm a straight white male. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ndrwmls10, tietack, MichaelNY

                  It's not identity politics when I vote for candidates I believe would bring more diversity to congress. I just think it's good for society. As it so happens, many of the nation's top universities happen to agree with me, and include potential to diversify their campus in their admissions process in addition to candidate quality.

                  I really just don't buy that there's a moral equivalence between thinking that all segments of American society should be well-represented in congress and thinking that certain segments of it should be excluded.

      •  Yep. (9+ / 0-)

        Primary people like Lipinski, Visclosky, and Lynch. All live in significantly bluer districts that would easily elect progressives, yet they vote like blue dogs.

        My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

        by drhoosierdem on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:39:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You want to concede this district??? (0+ / 0-)

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:28:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  retreads (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, MichaelNY

    That count if 6 is only ones that lost last year. There are others that left office before 2010 that are giving it a while too. Nick Lampson and Rick Nolan come to mind.

  •  I'll send money to any Dem whose ads say this (6+ / 0-)

    Hi, I'm X and I'm running against Y...but this ad isn't about me or Y, and this election isn't about us.  It's about you: what do you believe?  Do you really believe the solution to our country's economic problems is to tax the wealthy and large corporations as little as possible in the hope that they'll invest their savings here at home, when there's 30 years of evidence that they won't?  Do you really believe that the poor, the elderly, and the sick are responsible for our budget deficit, rather than endless tax breaks for the wealthy and endless spending on pointless wars?  Do you really believe that the change in our climate since you were a kid is just a fluke, or not even real?  Ask yourself those questions first, then answer them honestly, and then ask yourself: which candidate represents you?  

    I'll Rochambeau you for it.

    by Rich in PA on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:02:46 AM PDT

  •  The Boss is awesome..however... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

    Perhaps George Washington's victory at Trenton and Princeton might top him as the best thing to come out of Jersey !! :)

  •  Wi recalls - voter turnout figures so far (6+ / 0-)

    I posted this late last nite in the live thread but worth reposting here because I am sure the article will have a lot of interest among DKE readers and many were likely already in bed when I posted it the first time.

    I won't delve into the specifics of the article other than to observe that the feared decline in intensity of the reaction to the Walker agenda is not yet abating in Wisconsin, contrary to Republican hopes.  The Republicans let the genie of public outrage out of the bottle and now they have to live with the consequences.

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:36:04 AM PDT

  •  WI recalls - focus on Simac and Weitz (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, itskevin, MichaelNY

    This article explores some of the obstacles GOP recall nominees Kim Simac and Robert Weitz will face as they challenge incumbent Dem Senators Jim Holperin and Robert Wirch respectively.

    http://www.wisconsinreporter.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 07:38:12 AM PDT

    •  from a neighborly perspective (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Weitz does not seem like a huge thread considering it is a pretty balanced district. However, Simac is in a fairly Republican district, and her brand of politics may not be as toxic there as it would be elsewhere. I know north woods voters, Hell, I am a northwoodsman from next door, and the tea type cries tend to fall on deaf ears to these kind of people. But that being said, R+6 is still R+6

      •  Holperin - Simac (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, dc1000

        No doubt Jim Holperin faces the greatest challenge.  Scott Walker won Holperin's district, and David Prosser defeated Joanne Kloppenburg in 10 of the 11 counties within Senate district 12.  But remember, Prosser hailed from that neck of the woods (Appleton to the south) and Kloppenburg was unknown in northern Wisconsin.  It is one of the many reasons we need to take with a grain of salt Kloppenburg's defeat.  To some, it indicated the reaction to Walker was already petering out.  But non-partisan races are not partisan races no matter how badly activists like us want to make them partisan so the correlation is limited, not exact.

        I wonder how Simac's flavor of Tea will sell in Senate District 12?  She is very very aggressively running as a Christian Dominionist, crosses in all classes, Intelligent design in science classes, teacher led prayers in classrooms, banning Gay-Straight student alliance groups, etc.   Simac is Michele Bachmann on Christian Warrior steroids.

        The other albatross Simac carries is a failure to pay any state taxes (for 3 years?) despite owning 3 small business related to Horses/tourism and living in a very nice home.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 08:41:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  i do not understand that part if the state (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000

          It has had a Democrat in the senate for 20 years, bit at the state house level, it is represented by 3 Republicans, 2 of which have been around for a few cycles. The district lies within 2 Republican districts (that were Democratic districts last year). I am not getting a consistent give from the region. Being R+6 makes me nervous, but rural white "Republicans" in the woods are not the sane as rural white "Republican" farmers or ranchers. Completely different types of people.

          •  ethnic remnants (0+ / 0-)

            Not sure I can assign a percentage, but part of the reason has to do with the cultural heritage of Wisconsin.

            There is a strain of progressive Scandinavians that remains up north (and a rather large pcoket south of Madison as well, (Stoughton, der hey, lol) where Lutefisk Days are common.  

            Obey was quite the progressive, with the exception he usually sided with the NRA on gun legislation and much of his northern territory is similar to Holperins far north territory, just further west along the Canadian border.

            The north is more liberal on economic issues than social/cultural issues by and large, and Blue Dog Democrats are the flip of that, economically more Conservative and straying at times on social issues.  I would suggest this accounts for some of your lack of understanding of the area.  Northern Wisconsin generates a peculiar issue mix of Democrat that will support very progressive Dems, as long as they are pro-gun.  Gun Control liberals are the types of Democrats that do poorly in the far north.

            "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

            by walja on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:48:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  i get the gun thing (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dc1000

              I really do. You would never see someone like Oberstar, Walz, or Obey voting against guns. I feel that being seen as anti-gun is a big hindrance in states like that, where the rural areas aren't necessarily against the Democrats from the get go. But that is a bit off topic.

              The part I don't get is the R+6 aspect, and the monolithic Republican caucus as far as the state house goes. That simply wouldn't happen in the north woods to the west. I get the socially moderate, and fiscally more liberal qualities, and I expected that. But Republicans don't generally do well in places that have those preferences. Such as northern Minnesota, the U.P. Pittsburgh, West Virginia, etc.

              •  Industry, or lack thereof (0+ / 0-)

                Except for Superior, there is no Dulth in northern Wisconsin.  It's not at all like the Iron Range or west Virginia or near Pittsburgh.  Those all have heavy industry heritage and still nearby.

                Northern Wisconsin is fish and trees.

                http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

                by tommypaine on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 04:17:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Where are you getting the R+6 number from? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        My back of the hand guestimation is coming up with no worse that R+3ish. It's definitely on the republican side of median, but not R+6.

  •  RI-01 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, xcave, Xenocrypt, dc1000, MichaelNY

    I supported Segal in the primary, for what that's worth. . . Really I'd like to wait until the facts of the JSTOR thing become clearer. (That's why we don't convict based solely on arrests, right?) This isn't "hacking" or unlawful access; at most it's a violation of the JSTOR Terms of Service (which limit you to "personal use" of what you find there, and I don't believe limits the number of articles you can access). And why would that necessarily reflect badly on Segal, who is an ethical guy (and in RI that's saying something)?

    I'd also be very surprised if Segal really does primary Cicilline. The Congressman has some issues, but being too right-wing isn't one of them. Of the races to put Dem progressive time and money into, this doesn't seem high on the list.

    •  Agreed on the first point (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      As for the second, I think the concern over Cicilline is over his electability, thanks to a deteriorating image as the sorry state of Providence's finances have been in the news (gosh, that's an awkward sentence, but you get the idea).  Ordinarily I would consider it pretty unlikely, but there have been some scary polls, he has a legit-ish challenger, and Rhode Island's economic problems are severe enough that something extreme might happen.  I'm mostly just repeating what I've read, though.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 08:19:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Apparently (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It went beyond violating JSTOR's TOS, because there is no way you can download 4 million articles using their normal front-end interface. (And, FWIW, a friend told me she once got temporarily shut out of JSTOR for downloading too many articles at once... and I can't imagine we're talking more than a dozen or two in her instance.)

      I only mention it as an issue for Segal because he's decided to take the approach that Swartz did nothing wrong. If in fact Swartz is guilty of a serious transgression, I don't think it helps Segal to have defended the guy.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:49:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thus the question of intent (0+ / 0-)

        Is the JSTOR interface slow? I know other such interfaces in my industry (computer books) are awfully slow.

        In that case, it's conceivable that Swartz just wanted to download the database for faster personal access.

        If however, the intent was to copy to allow others to access the database without a subscription, then we're talking about theft.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 11:08:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm meh on Cicilline (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      he messed up prov pretty badly and while I love having a gay Jewish/Italian rep, I'm running out of non-identity politics-related reasons to support him. and I don't want to have to spend money to defend a D+13 seat. I'm probably going to be voting for a Cicilline primary challenger next fall.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sat Jul 23, 2011 at 07:34:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Springsteen! (0+ / 0-)

    They should have checked the numbers of Steve VanZandt while they were at it. He took out some years for The Sopranos. He might take a few years to run the state, too. He might even be persuadable.

    Miami Steve for Governor! (Global warming has gotten ridiculous.)

    http://www.danablankenhorn.com

    by Dana Blankenhorn on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 09:32:50 AM PDT

    •  It's so awful (0+ / 0-)

      I got an e-mail that says my university's air conditioning/cold water might be "pushed past the breaking point" or something.  As I said on FB it's turning into the most boring disaster movie ever.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:57:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Redistricting re: State Senate (0+ / 0-)

    In states like Wisconsin, where they have staggered 4 year terms... how does redistricting work? I mean people hold a seat and new lines are drawn and they still have 2 more years as the new class run in a redrawn seat. Are the Senators not up for re-election still representing their old seats or are they moved into the new seats?

    If a seat is moved from the north of the state to the south, do they represent this southern district ?

    More of a philosophical question, I guess...

    •  there is a 2 year period in these states (0+ / 0-)

      Every decade, there are simply no state senators representing certain parts if the state. That is why other states have 2 four-year terms, and 1 two-year term per decade. Neighboring Minnesota does this, for instance.

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