Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/15-17, registered voters,
6/19-12 (PDF) in parens):
Barack Obama: 45 (47)
Mitt Romney: 45 (45)
Undecided: 10 (8)
Barack Obama: 48 (50)
Tim Pawlenty: 39 (39)
Undecided: 13 (11)
Barack Obama: 48 (48)
Herman Cain: 36 (38)
Undecided: 16 (14)
Barack Obama: 53 (52)
Sarah Palin: 37 (38)
Undecided: 9 (10)
Barack Obama: 48
Michele Bachmann: 41
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Tom Jensen headlined this poll by saying Obama is in "perilous" shape. I think Obama certainly isn't in very good shape, but I don't think I would go as far as saying things are "perilous." Just looking at the trendlines, very little has changed since last month, and Obama in fact improved two net points against two potential opponents while declining by two against two others.
Still, Tom makes a compelling case that things are very tough for the president right now:
Here's an important note on all of this early 2012 polling though: Obama's numbers are worse than they appear to be on the surface. The vast majority of the undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama's doing but aren't committing to a candidate yet while they wait to see how the Republican field shakes out. Here's an idea of where these various match ups might stand once all voters have made up their minds:
• In the Obama/Romney head to head 21% of undecideds approve of Obama and 61% disapprove. If you allocate them based on their approval/disapprove of Obama, Romney would lead 52-48.
But he notes:
If there's a silver lining for Obama it's this — he trailed Romney in our poll last July and then led him for each of the next 11 months. For whatever reason summer and particularly the month of July has not been friendly to Obama in the polls ever since he hit the national stage. So perhaps he'll see another recovery now as he has in the past. But for now he's in one of the weakest positions of his Presidency.
As in 2010, I think it's all going to come down to the economy and jobs. There is still time for things to change. In July of 2003, George Bush led John Kerry by double digits in the national polls, a race that wound up getting decided by only three. Of course, that only means that things could either get better or worse. Right now it's just impossible to say which—but if things don't change, then the president may indeed be in perilous territory.