It looks like Boehner has finally thrown down the gauntlet, and it's for giving Obama an ultimatum: it's either the GOP bill or default. At least that's the reports from Boehner's GOP caucus conference call over twitter:
The following is a quote of tweets from Lisa Desjardins reporting on the conference call:
DEBT - GOP SUMMARY: Boehner, Cantor say no deal , GOP must stand ground. That Obama trying to set up GOP to raise debt w/no spending cuts.
DEBT - GOP more: sources conveying to @deirdrewalshcnn, @katebolduancnn a conf. call that sounds (to me) like anti-Obama, GOP Unite rally.
DEBT - READ THIS - Source says Boehner told GOP: path forward is NOT in agreement b/t him and Obama but in bill they pass that he must sign.
DEBT BOEHNER : Source: he said GOP strategy requires some member "to make sacrifices" but "if we stand together, our leverage maximized."
DEBT - BOEHNER in battle mode: In call said GOP must protct U.S. from "what...president is trying to orchestrate" and GOP must "stop him".
BOEHNER GOP CALL summary: He focused on GOP unity, demanding spending cuts. No talk of compromise, instead call for GOP to stick together.
So what does this say:
1) For all intents and purposes, if this is Boehner's actual position, negotiations are effectively over. They may still go forward, but chances of a deal appear to be effectively dead
2) So much for trying to reassure the markets. This will pretty much confirm to the markets that default probably has a better than 50/50 chance of occuring now
3) The one possible silver lining is that Boehner's call for unity may be betraying his fear that some GOP Congressmen may splinter off and vote for a plan more to Obama's liking, or even a clean increase, and Boehner is trying to stave off that possibility.
In any case, certainly not an encouraging development.
-----------------
Update:
In a relevant update, DOW Futures are already starting to dip, down almost 120 points already
Update 2:
Reports are that Boehner will present a new plan to his caucus by 2pm tomorrow and publicly reveal the plan later if they approve.
Initial reports is that the plan will increase the debt ceiling in 6 month increments, meaning instead of one vote now, we'll have votes now, then mostly likely around the start of the year, and then again next summer, smack in the middle of campaign season.
No word yet on the size of cuts in the plan or whether it will have any revenue increases (though I can't imagine it will)
Update 3:
Reid has apparently released the initial information about his plan: $2.7 trillion in cuts - dollar for dollar with debt ceiling increase, with no new revenues. Apparently most cuts come from savings by ending wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (which were already scheduled to happen) + other defense cuts and interest savings. Sounds like entitlements and most other discretionary spending are saved, though we're still waiting on the details.