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MA-Sen: I like this post from Dave Weigel on why attempts to "Coakley-ize" Elizabeth Warren won't work. I'd rather not try to sum it up, so I'll just encourage you to click through and read it (it's brief). It features some very sharp thinking that is vintage Weigel.

NE-Sen: Dem super PAC Patriot Majority USA is up with a $74K buy praising… yeah, Ben Nelson, for his fiscal stewardship or whatnot. You can watch the ad here. The voiceover strikes me as a little over-done, no?


KY-Gov: An RGA front group called "Bluegrass Prosperity" is out with a new spot featuring an eye-rollingly phony-sounding conversation between two supposed auto mechanics about how "tough" GOP nominee David Williams is. It sounds about as authentic as one of those ads where one woman is extolling the virtues of her laundry detergent to another. Sample dialog: "David Williams, huh? He's too tough to be governor." Uh, say what? You can watch it here.


AR-04: Talk Business has a roundup of possible candidates who might (or won't) seek to replace retiring Dem Rep. Mike Ross. On the GOP side, Army vet and consultant Tom Cotton, who briefly considered a run against Blanche Lincoln last year, says that he'll run. Ross's 2010 opponent, Beth Anne Rankin, says she's considering it, as is state Rep. Lane Jean. Other possible names include state Rep. Matthew Shepherd, Glenn Gallas (who ran in the primary against Rankin), and Will Rockefeller (son of the late Lt. Gov. Win Rockefeller).

As for the Democrats, state Rep. Bruce Maloch says he will not run, but the list of possibles is long. It includes prosecutor Robin Carroll; state Sens. Steve Harrelson, Gene Jeffress, and Larry Teague; ex-state Sen. Steve Faris; state Reps. Gregg Reep and Hank Wilkins; and ex-state Rep. Chris Thomason.

NV-0?: Jon Ralston says that Dem state Sen. John Lee will also run for Congress. Again, no telling what district.

NY-28: Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter, who turns 82 in August and is the oldest woman in Congress, says she will "absolutely" run for a 14th term next year. While there's never any telling whether a statement like this is final, a Slaughter retirement would have likely simplified the redistricting problems Democrats face upstate.

OR-01: Kari Chisholm has a helpful post looking at possible timelines for a special election if Rep. David Wu resigns. The most important detail is that unless he were to resign very close to election day next year, there would be a primary to select party nominees. There's a lot of confusion, however, over whether the election would be held under current lines (which are slightly more favorable to Dems) or under the new lines, which were signed into law on June 30. Click through to Kari's post for the full debate.

Other Races:

WI Recall: Greg Sargent reports that the Club for Growth has spent at least $1.5 million on the Wisconsin recalls so far. The thing is, we know that they and their allies have undoubtedly spent far, far more. The right-wing groups are operating as non-profits (shah), so they aren't subject to disclosure requirements. That means the only way Democrats can figure out how much their opponents are spending is by canvassing radio and TV stations — but that, as you would expect, is a time-consuming, tedious, and very imperfect science, and plenty will fall through the cracks. So view this figure from the CfG as an absolute floor. And remember that many other conservative organizations are involved, such as the DeVos-backed American Federation for Children, Citizens for a Strong America, Wisconsin Family Action, and Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (aka the WMC, one of David Prosser's chief bankrollers).

Grab Bag:

EMILY's List: EMILY just endorsed three new candidates: Val Demings (FL-08), Tammy Duckworth (IL-08), and Dina Titus (NV-0?).

Redistricting Roundup:

NC Redistricting: Not that they have any chance of serving as anything other than exhibits in the eventual court case, but Democrats in the legislature released their own redistricting maps today. There's a new Congressional plan and two plans for the state Senate (second one here).

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 26, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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