but I want to quote the lead piece in Mike Allen's daily email for Political Playbook:
A TOP DEM'S VIEW OF LAST NIGHT: 'Speaker Boehner had a tough day yesterday. The right of his caucus bailed on his plan instantly and then CNN reported that S&P thinks his plan would lead to a downgrade, while Reid's wouldn't. So the right thinks it doesn't go far enough, and those looking for a solution that protects our credit rating have no reason to support. And his speech was an amazing tactical blunder. Who gives a speech designed to impress his caucus to the entire country? His base may think compromise is a dirty word, but they are the only ones. It ended up being the perfect contrast for the president. Boehner essentially validated everything the President said. It is very unclear whether he can cobble together the votes to pass it. Even if he can, the senate won't pass it, so the choice is his -- reasonable compromise or default. Hopefully he chooses helping the country over appealing to the far right of his caucus.'
My own reaction is like this
1. Boehner can pass nothing
2. Reid can pass his plan in Senate, although legally will have to do what they did on healthcare - take a bill passed by House, strip out everything and do as amendment by substitution. Send back to House
at that point, are there around 30-35 Republican who will break and vote for it IF BOEHNER ALLOWS A VOTE to avoid default. If Boehner caves and refuses a vote, Obama can and should go 14th Amendment to save economy - even if Courts did rule against him he would have support of both American people and the financial community. If Boehner allows a vote, if Republicans do not provide enough votes to pass, Obama still has 14th Amendment option. And if enough Repubs do vote for, Obama probably gets credit for being a grownup while Republicans take the hit.
Still not clear how this will play out, but if Boehner cannot even get his own plan through his caucus - and I was told by a Dem member of Financial Services yesterday that he does not think Boehner can pass anything without Democratic votes - the advantage swings back to Dems.
It will be an interesting few days.