Well, Massachusetts has the distinction of being the largest state with a House delegation entirely made up of members of the same party (though not the largest state with a uniform congressional delegation thanks to Sen. Scott Brown, R-Did You Know He Drives a Pickup Truck?). It's also losing a congressional district next year. That means there's going to be some inevitable Dem-on-Dem violence as at least two Democratic incumbents are deathmatched, unless there's an unexpected retirement. In the not-too-distant past, the assumption was that at least one member of Congress would voluntarily retire to run against Brown, but the hands of representatives once thought to be likely challengers for Brown's Senate seat have turned to diamond from the pressure of those congressmen sitting on them.
The latest scuttlebutt is that members of the legislative redistricting committee have heard petitions from all ten U.S. representatives arguing for the continued integrity of their districts (no word on whether they were awarded points on the originality of their PowerPoint presentations), but Rep. John Tierney is considered the likeliest Democrat to lose this decennial round of musical chairs.
I decided to do what any self-respecting DKEnalyst would do if Tierney is to be eliminated and throw him in with Rep. Stephen Lynch, a Blue Dog from South Boston who is among the least popular Democrats on DKE, in a district frankly designed to elect someone else entirely.
This diary has been updated. Check out two new maps below.
Okay, so, let me be up-front in saying that as a native of a much less densely populated state and a legal resident of a state with far more intuitive parochial differences, I may need some help with the geopolitics of Massachusetts. If one or more of these districts looks like it might up and elect a Republican, let me know; I did my best to anchor all of them in cities I do know are quite liberal. But this would be a state where election data would be very useful to have (hint, hint).
With that disclaimer out of the way, let's go through the districts:
MA-01 (blue) - Rep. John Olver (D)
The septuagenarian Olver loses the southwestern corner of Massachusetts and absorbs some of the suburbs around Worcester. Since he has a D+14 now and over two decades' worth of seniority, I think he can take the hit.
MA-02 (green) - Rep. Richard Neal (D)
If I'm not mistaken, Neal's new territory in southwestern Massachusetts should boost the PVI of his D+9 district. Maybe that means Democrats could elect a more liberal congressman, but I think Neal is staying put for a while.
MA-03 (purple) - Rep. Jim McGovern (D)
McGovern's snaking district becomes slightly more compact, dropping Fall River and adding much more of Taunton and Foxboro. But McGovern also cedes much of the Worcester area to Olver. Not sure how that affects his D+9 PVI, but he shouldn't have much to worry about.
MA-04 (red) - Rep. Barney Frank (D)
This serpentine district shifts east but retains the same basic shape, awkwardly marrying white-collar Newton with the South Coast. Frank has a D+14 now and should be a heavy reelection favorite despite some of his ethical issues and propensity for attracting lots of out-of-state Republican dark money to his races.
MA-05 (yellow) - Rep. Niki Tsongas (D)
This is the biggest question mark for me, given Tsongas's lack of charisma and history of underperformance. The district remains anchored by Lowell, but it loses some of its western territory as well as Lawrence to pick up Framingham and Norwood, forming a semicircle surrounding the Greater Boston area. When all is said and done, though, it's still a variation on a D+8 district, and as such, I think Tsongas should be fine.
MA-06 (teal) - Rep. Edward Markey (D)
Markey, perhaps my favorite member of the Massachusetts delegation, moves from having a suburban Boston district to largely inheriting Rep. John Tierney's Maine-shaped northeastern district. But the addition of Markey's home base in Malden and the surrounding area should probably boost the PVI of this district from D+7 upward. Tierney doesn't live here anymore, but he may still try to run in it; I expect Markey's superior connections and Tierney's ethically challenged wife would give Markey the edge in a primary. Or Markey could run for Senate, which would be fine with me.
MA-07 (grey) - Rep. Michael Capuano (D)
Rather than going south into Natick and Framingham like the current MA-08, this district goes north to take in Pinehurst and its environs. Capuano's current district is a D+32, and the PVI shouldn't change drastically here.
MA-08 (slate blue) - Reps. John Tierney (D) and Stephen Lynch (D)
This is the centerpiece of the map, a coastal district stretching from Salem to South Boston, and it's a doozy. Tierney, stripped of virtually all of his old territory outside of Salem and Lynn, may try to primary Markey instead (or just retire), but Lynch hardly has an easy go of it either. This district is a minority-majority district in terms of overall population (46.6% white, 22.5% Latino, 20.1% black, 6.9% Asian) and just narrowly white-majority VAP (51.5% white, 19.3% Latino, 18.7% black, 7.2% Asian), and it includes the home base of Sonia Chang-Diaz, a telegenic and charismatic state senator seen as a rising star within the party. Ideally, Tierney and Lynch would split the white blue-collar vote to let Chang-Diaz through in a Democratic primary, but even if Tierney didn't run against Lynch, I think this district would do the trick for Chang-Diaz. I don't know what the PVI here would be, but it's got to be safe Democratic.
MA-09 (cyan) - Rep. William Keating (D)
Perhaps the district of least change, this district is virtually a replica of the current MA-10, a D+5. Keating had a difficult time winning election last year, but he was helped by weakly deflected allegations that his police officer opponent had a habit of standing around while his subordinates strip-searched teenage girls for the hell of it. Massachusetts is fond of its incumbents, and now that the hard part (winning in a light blue district amidst the worst election cycle for Democrats since the 1920s) is over, Keating should be fine for reelection unless there's something I'm overlooking.
Thoughts?
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Wed Jul 27, 2011 at 9:26 PM PT: I've redone the above map and created another "good government" map (which I don't see happening) as a special bonus. The original is preserved above for posterity's sake.
This map is, again, a probable 9-0. Just as the Democratic God, Charles Darwin, intended.
MA-01 (blue) - Rep. John Olver (D)
Olver's district looks a lot more like his current one under this map than the above. In fact, literally the only changes are the loss of Southwick, West Brookfield, and West Springfield. He should be happy with this.
MA-02 (green) - Rep. Richard Neal (D)
I spent a long time trying to get this district to within no more than triple digits' population deviation while fixing problems with town continuity. Neal's district sheds its northern arm into Olver's home base in the Amherst area from its present incarnation and twists around Worcester, home of Rep. Jim McGovern, and the arm linking it to the rest of MA-03. It ends up extending east as far as the Boston suburb of Framingham. Did I mention keeping population deviation down while maintaining town continuity is really hard?
MA-03 (purple) - Rep. Jim McGovern (D)
This district changes quite a bit from the previous map. It drapes around Rhode Island like a shawl, retaking Fall River and in fact continuing right on down to the South Coast as far east as New Bedford. Most of this new turf should be friendly to McGovern, and Rep. Barney Frank might be happy to have it taken off his hands.
MA-04 (red) - Rep. Barney Frank (D)
In ceding part of the South Coast to McGovern, Frank is free to pick up more of friendly Greater Boston for a relatively compacter district..."relatively" being the operative word. As with Neal's district, Frank's district took a lot of finessing to get it to respect town continuity while maintaining a small population deviance. In fact, by taking in Franklin, it nearly chokes off McGovern's arm from Worcester down to Bristol County. It also adds working-class Brockton and drops white-collar Wellesley in order to make population. If Frank were to retire under this incarnation of the district, the primary to replace him could be interesting.
MA-05 (yellow) - Rep. Niki Tsongas (D)
This district gets less compact, slimming down in central Massachusetts to travel up along the New Hampshire border all the way to the Atlantic Ocean. Tsongas should be fine here, though she could potentially face a primary challenge from displaced Rep. John Tierney; the district is still rooted in Lowell and other areas Tsongas is accustomed to representing.
MA-06 (teal) - Rep. Edward Markey (D)
Much more so than the previous map, Markey's new district is a marriage of parts of his current MA-07 and Tierney's current MA-06, though Tierney's hometown of Salem still isn't included. The district effectively neutralizes the scandal-tinged Tierney's potential leg up over Markey in questing for the Democratic nomination by excising much of Tierney's turf, slicing and dicing it along with Tsongas's district and the district in which Tierney finds himself along with Rep. Stephen Lynch on this map, and combining it with much of Markey's familiar North Boston as far west as Lexington, Lincoln, and Weston. Markey should win easily here no matter what.
MA-07 (grey) - Rep. Michael Capuano (D)
Another headache for me, but Capuano's district is now much better at respecting town boundaries outside of Boston proper. Its PVI is still D+lots, Capuano shouldn't face a primary from another incumbent representative, and this should be a really boring race once again.
MA-08 (orange) - Reps. John Tierney (D) and Stephen Lynch (D)
Little change from the above version, just a few more precincts in Lynn and Salem added for increased (though not perfect, due to population deviation restrictions) town continuity and a few precincts in Boston taken away. It still effectively screws Lynch and double-screws Tierney.
MA-09 (cyan) - Rep. William Keating (D)
Very few changes here. Keating should still be good to go, though Lynch could potentially jump in and primary him. Not sure how that would play out, but I think Keating would be favored because he's not seen as a South Boston type as much as Lynch is (and the district is mostly Cape Cod and the environs of Plymouth).
That wraps up my revision.
Here is the bonus map, which I am considering submitting to the CCMA Redistricting Olympics but which I do not think has a ghost of a chance at being adopted by the Democrat-rich redistricting committee:
Looks nice, yes? (I used an entirely different color scheme to avoid confusion with the other map, as this diary is getting crowded.) But there are a few problems with it from a logistical standpoint.
MA-01 (magenta) - Reps. John Olver (D) and Richard Neal (D)
This is the first big problem. Olver and Neal each enjoy over two decades' worth of seniority and considerable power on Capitol Hill. But it makes for a really, really compact district that would serve western Massachusetts' interests very well if they're drawn together. It would also be reliably Democratic, still.
MA-02 (dodger blue) - Rep. Jim McGovern (D)
This district includes both McGovern's hometown of Worcester and a lot of territory represented by Neal and Olver right now. McGovern may face a primary from one or the other in a district like this, and he might lose it. Should be a pretty solid Democratic district, if not as blue as MA-01.
MA-03 (indigo) - Rep. Niki Tsongas (D)
Tsongas actually sees relatively little change from her current district, though it drops into Shrewsbury and other Worcester satellite towns instead of going northeast into Lawrence and Methuen. Tsongas should be quite secure here. She would be pleased with this map, even if no other member were.
MA-04 (chartreuse) - Rep. Barney Frank (D)
This district becomes way more compact, but it also picks up Sen. Scott Brown's hometown of Wrentham and some other blue-collar areas on the outskirts of Greater Boston, exposing Frank to potentially a bit more grief in a general election. Not sure how bad the damage would be. Frank is an awfully high-profile target, and I don't think he'd love this drawing.
MA-05 (burgundy) - Reps. Michael Capuano (D) and Edward Markey (D)
This inner-to-North Boston district would deathmatch two very solid Democratic incumbents. It would also be one of the most Democratic districts in the country without a doubt. I'm guessing this map might prompt Capuano to rethink his apathy toward a Senate run, because Markey would be a tough primary opponent and he represents more of this district now than Capuano does.
MA-06 (spring green) - Rep. John Tierney (D)
Tierney lucks out under this map, with his district changing little and not bundling him with another incumbent. So that makes him and Tsongas who would be happy with this configuration.
MA-07 (navy) - Rep. Stephen Lynch (D)
Lynch gets another bogus draw with this map, as this district's demographic breakdown is remarkably close to that of the previous map. Chang-Diaz or another minority legislator could probably defeat him in a primary, perhaps prompting him to seek greener pastures.
MA-08 (olive) - OPEN
One avenue for Lynch's escape could be this open South Coast district, which also includes the heavily touristed islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Lynch already represents some of the northeast corner of this district, if I'm not mistaken, and he could run here if he wanted to avoid getting clobbered by the likes of Chang-Diaz in a Democratic primary. One wrinkle: he could end up facing McGovern, who might be a refugee from MA-02 if Neal or Olver decided to run there instead and he decided not to go toe-to-toe with the more senior congressman. McGovern currently represents much of the western part of this district and could be a formidable presence in the primary.
MA-09 (salmon) - Rep. William Keating (D)
Okay, so that makes three Democrats who would be totally satisfied with this map. Keating loses the islands but picks up blue-collar Brockton to keep his population deviation low enough to qualify for the Redistricting Olympics.
So, in sum, the good-government map ends up benefiting the three members of Congress who are probably least likely to have any favors done them by redistricting, namely the two weakest campaigners (Tierney and Tsongas) and the most junior representative in the delegation (Keating), and inconveniences four of the members who are most likely to have some pull in the process, namely the four most powerful and senior representatives (Olver, Neal, Markey, and Frank). It's a nice map, and it actually is a likely 9-0, but the wrong people are owed the biggest favors in order for it to be considered a plausible outcome of redistricting.
Thoughts?