This is in response to Obama Impeachment Threatened, currently on the Rec List.
Both are takes on Rep. King's quote
"Obama would be impeached if he blocked debt payments."
Of course he would. And it would be successful -- if by successful you mean Obama would be removed from office. What may happen is a government shutdown.
Passed during the Civil War to comfort investors at a time when our debt went from tens of millions to over $2 billion, the 14th Amendment is clear. The Federal debt must be serviced. This is why Obama will never allow the US to default on it's debt. And all this news media talk of default is hogwash.
This is not to say that the debt limit will be raised. I believe that the people behind the Tea Party are determined that the limit will not be raised. And moderate Republicans have and will continue to go along out of fear that they will find themselves with a Tea Party primary opponent in 2012.
So when the limit is not raised, what will happen? The Government will be put into the position of an ordinary family having an income that is insufficient to meet its needs. Some bills will be payed others will be "deferred". The 2011 budget is $3.82 trillion. Revenue is estimated to come in at $2.17 trillion leaving a $1.55 trillion deficit. To avoid going over the debt limit, it looks like nearly 40% of budgeted spending will have to be deferred. But Geithner juggled bill payments to avoid going over the limit in July. Presumably by delaying payments. So who knows how much we will have to cut? It may be closer to 50%.
So who's at the top of the list? Who will get paid and who will wait?
Obama will use whatever means to service the debt. Treasuries holders will do fine. Instead much of the Federal Government will be shut down, their employees laid off until the crisis is solved.
Wikipedia shows that the things normally thought of as mandatory spending (including servicing the debt) amount to over $2 trillion. The good news is Social Security and Medicare are considered mandatory. Discretionary spending was $1.378 trillion in 2010, less than the deficit. And discretionary spending cannot be eliminated entirely for several reasons.
One of those discretionary items is Department of Defense (including Overseas Contingency Operations). Read Iraq and Afghanistan. Certainly soldiers will be paid.
The remaining areas of big expenditures are equally scary,
- Department of Health and Human Services
– Department of Transportation
– Department of Veterans Affairs
– Department of State and Other International Programs
– Department of Housing and Urban Development
– Department of Education
– Department of Homeland Security
– Department of Energy
– Department of Agriculture
– Department of Justice
– National Aeronautics and Space Administration
– Department of Commerce
– Department of Labor
– Department of the Treasury
– Department of the Interior
– Environmental Protection Agency
Certainly, these expenditures cannot be eliminated entirely. "Care takers" will be required, at a minimum. So some cuts will likely be required in the "Mandatory" category. Medicare payments to doctors and hospitals may be deferred a few weeks but longer would be problematic. It looks to me that my Social Security check is in danger.
This, I hope, is why Eugene Robinson said
How big a disaster would that be?
Somewhere between massive and apocalyptic if an actual default were to ensue.