With my doing a good job on redistricting West Virginia, I decided to go more out of my comfort zone and do redistricting of a state that has split counties but isn't too big, either. Also, it had to be a state that hasn't been redistricted to death here. So I tried to work with Kentucky. This state is tougher to gauge because they ticket-split far more here than in West Virginia. To give you an idea of the kind of Democrat that heritage Dems here elect, here is an ad from Dennis Parrett, a Hardin County Democrat who beat an incumbent Republican State Senator last November.
When I began to redistrict Kentucky, I considered using 2007 gubernatorial data, then decided that it was skewed due to Beshear's exceptional performance in his home of Western Kentucky and the scandals plaguing then-Governor Ernie Fletcher (his scandals were Nixonian and Rovian). 2010 was a Republican wave year (even though Democrats remained roughly static in state legislative elections), so using the Senate data from that would be skewed as well. The 2004 Senate Election is too far back for my liking. Therefore, I decided to try out 2008 Senatorial data. In this race, Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford ran against Mitch McConnell. The final result was pretty good with Lunsford getting 47% to McConnell's 53%. Auditor Crit Luallen might have pulled closer or even won, but that's speculative. Anywho, I determined that a Tier 2-3 Democrat running against McConnell in a recent good Dem year was the right way to gauge my redistricted districts. It's not ideal in the slightest, but it's the best I could think up. Finally, I only gauged the districts I made more Democratic (KY-01 and KY-06). I also gauged KY-02 to see if it could still be winnable (albeit doubtful, even in the current configuration).
More below the fold.
My main objectives in this map is one that ATTEMPTS to make three seats Dems can win, but while not ruffling too many incumbent feathers. If Dems had the trifecta in KY, they could throw that out the window and draw a third seat which can elect a Democrat. However, they only have the State House and the Governorship. We'll probably see an incumbent protection map in the Congress and State Senate map and a Dem gerrymander of the State House like last time.
And here is my try at redistricting Kentucky.
In my attempt, I try to improve Democrats' odds in KY-01. Dems are 63% of the registered voters here, however a LOT of them are heritage Democrats. They vote Democratic for state legislators and local offices, but little else. So here, I tried to up the odds of them electing a Dem to Congress by dropping the Republican counties of Butler, Adair, Casey, Cumberland, Russell, and Clinton. It now has all of Ohio County. It then picked up the significantly Democratic counties of Daviess and Hancock.
Statistics: 45.5% Lunsford, 54.5% McConnell
Deviation: -14
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KY-02, on the other hand, still includes Bowling Green and is now more Republican due to the changes I made in KY-01. It also now reaches into Republican Oldham County.
Statistics: 41% Lunsford, 59% McConnell
Deviation: +155
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KY-03, entirely within Jefferson County, remains 99.9% the same. Congressman Yarmuth has no problems on the horizon.
Statistics: 55.7% Lunsford, 44.3% McConnell
Deviation: -233
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Next up is KY-06, the district held by Ben Chandler, grandson of the legendary Happy Chandler. To make this more Democratic, I had it lose the Republican Counties of Estill, Madison, and Garrard. It now takes in the Democratic Counties of Bath, Marion, Nicholas, Menifee, and Morgan. Under the current lines, the 2008 Senate race was neck-and-neck, but now this is a district Lunsford outright won. Chandler should be safe here.
Statistics: 52% Lunsford, 48% McConnell
Deviation: -14
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The other two districts (KY-04 and KY-05) both become more Republican due to the fact that they lose some of their Dem-leaning counties to KY-06. KY-05 more so because it took Republican counties from KY-06. KY-04 and KY-05 have a deviation of +183 and -78 respectively.
That is all, my friends. I hope you enjoyed this as much as I did. I'm still new to the world of redistricting and I'm finding it quite enjoyable.
Wed Jul 27, 2011 at 9:32 PM PT: I'll probably revisit this down the road with a map that draws a better KY-02 for Democrats.