To start, I'm gonna list my overall impression. D+3.5. Except for the numbering system and the split of lancaster, i like this map much better than the last from a COI standpoint.
I'm going to go district by district, excluding the Safe Dem or GOP ones with no competitive primaries.
CA-2 (old CA-6): In case you were worrying, it's Safe Dem.
CA-3 (old CA-10): It looks a lot like Vic Fazio's old district in the 90s. Garamendi is very liberal though. It's D+3: Dem in the South, GOP in the North. I'd rate it Lean Dem, but closer to Toss-up than Likely D due to Garamendi. Great COI district though.
CA-4: McClintock might have to worry in the general: not from a Dem, but from Calaveras Co. Supervisor Darren Spellman, who is challenging him from the less right. Top Two could be interesting here. All Democrats should root for Spellman, as R+10 means we're not picking it up anytime soon.
CA-5 (old CA-1): It takes Mike Thompson's home area and throws in lots of George Miller's district. I actually think Thompson should run in Woolsey's old district: he could easily win the North Coast parts and win a split primary if no Humboldt Dem runs, considering there are about 4 from Marin/Sonoma in already. However, Miller has an open district waiting for him in Contra Costa County, so I'd say the point is (probably) moot.
CA-7 (old CA-3): Lungren vs. Ami Bera, Part Two. It's an R+1 that is trending D. It'll probably be R+0 or D+1 in 2012, so this is for sure a Toss-Up. District barely changes.
Just gotta say, WTF having Lewis in the 8th district. Yes I know it's the law, but still. Anyway, he's safe.
CA-9 (old CA-11, kind of): McNerney should defeat GOP wunderkind Ricky Gill, but he'll have to introduce himself to lots of new voters and convince Central Valley residents they should vote for someone from the Bay Area. It's D+4, which should help Lean D.
CA-10 (old CA-19): Jeff Denham, who is an all-around crappy politician (just in terms of political ability) is in a Lean R, R+2 district. Not sure what Dems could run here. It's south San Joaquin plus Stanislaus. We should probably draft a Blue Dog to run.
CA-16 (old CA-18): Dennis Cardoza wins from this map, which means Jim Costa loses. D+6 should be Likely D, especially for a Blue Dog.
CA-21 (old CA-20): Jim Costa and David Valadao will square off here. I love all the Portguese names in the Central Valley: these two plus Cardoza and Nunes. It's R+1 and Costa's a moderate, so Toss-Up. Depends on Hispanic turnout in Bakersfield and the rural Central Valley.
CA-24 (old CA-23): Lois Capps and Abel Maldonado are still on track to face each other. Capps has won a toss-up district in the past, and this is barely so if at all, at yet another D+4. Maldonado is a moderate, though, but his ties to Arnold could now hurt him even more than before. Lean D; Capps hasn't campaigned since the last redistricting.
CA-26 (old CA-24): Elton Gallegly is toast, our first casualty. It's D+5 and he's super conservative. This is historically GOP territory, however, and Dems have no bench to speak of. I'll predict a New Dem business type to get elected here and Gallegly to retire once he starts polling the district.
CA-28 (old CA-29): Anthony Portantino wants to run for Congress, and he lives here. Adam Schiff is strong though, and I haven't heard retirement rumors.
CA-29 (old CA-28): Howard Berman's gonna face Sherman in the West Valley, which leaves Tony Cardenas this seat in a new VRA district. In the new CA-30, Sherman-Berman should be a fun primary. I'm for Sherman.
CA-31 (old CA-43): Didn't see this one coming at all. Baca is not a good politician either, and a D+4 could do him in during an R wave year. 2012 won't be the year it happens, though. Dreier, if he runs, will run here, which could make it Tilt D instead of Lean.
CA-35 (new district): Gloria Negrete McLeod's easily got this one. The Hispanic SB County district gets moved here, as Baca's no longer is VRA.
CA-36 (old CA-45): Mary Bono Mack is the only moderate (kind of) left in the GOP delegation from California. An R+2 with basically no new territory is Lean to Likely R with Pougnet having dropped out.
CA-39 (old CA-40 and CA-42): The corrupt Gary Miller is doomed, facing off against the conservative but clean Ed Royce. Good riddance.
CA-41 (new district): Since Dreier is dismantled, a new district has to be created somewhere. It's here, in the Riverside area, and at D+6, it's Lean D. Both sides have strong candidates in already: Jeff Miller for the GOP and Mark Takano for the Dems.
CA-44 (old CA-36 and CA-37): Janice Hahn, Isidore Hall, and Laura Richardson will probably all run here. Richardson could well come in third in the primary. A likely split Black vote will help Hahn immensely.
CA-47 (new district): Long Beach is the centerpiece of this district, but Orange County is the other half. It's about D+6, and Alan Lowenthal or Gary DeLong should win here.
CA-52 (old CA-50): Brian Bilbray is put into a D+3. He's good at playing the moderate and it's probably a Toss-Up.
Casualty List:
For sure:
Elton Gallegly, David Dreier, Brad Sherman or Howard Berman, Gary Miller or Ed Royce, Laura Richardson, Janice Hahn, or both.
Maybe Bilbray, Lungren, and Costa.