Monticello, home of Thomas Jefferson
(Paul R. Kutcher IV/
CC BY-SA 3.0)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/21-24, Virginia voters, 5/5-8 in parens, 2/24-27 in brackets):
Tim Kaine (D): 46 (46) [47]
George Allen (R): 43 (44) [47]
Undecided: 11 (10) [6]
Tim Kaine (D): 47 (49) [49]
Jamie Radtke (R): 31 (33) [33]
Undecided: 22 (18) [17]
(MoE: ±4.4%)
It ain't much, but since February, Tim Kaine has moved from a tied race to a three-point lead. Still, things are far too close for me to bet on a change that small. Still, Tom notes that Kaine's lead has moved the most among independents; if that trend keeps up, hopefully Kaine can lock that advantage in by going hard negative on Allen next year, reminding voters of all the things they disliked about him back in 2006.
One other interesting observation from Tom:
There seems to be a general thought that this race will move in whatever direction the national political winds do over the next 15 months and change so it's interesting that Kaine has gained a point on his lead over Allen even as Barack Obama's advantage on Mitt Romney has declined by 7 points. At least right now those races aren't moving in concert. For now that's good news for Kaine—Obama's not dragging him down even as his popularity flags. But longer term it could be good news for Allen too—if Obama's numbers see a recovery that doesn't necessarily mean Kaine's all the sudden going to have an 8 point lead either.
Also from the same poll, PPP has generic legislative numbers for this November's state lege elections. The GOP leads by a narrow 45-42 spread, but Democrats are tied among independents, a group they got crushed with in 2009.