Three lessons for activists on how to move forward after the debt ceiling fight:
1. Those who wish to protect the social safety net from cuts need to stop dealing in abstractions.
Polling is very clear on this matter. Spending cuts, in the abstract, are popular. Take, for example, a recent CNN / ORC poll:
CNN / ORC, July 18-20, 1,009 Adults, MoE 3
Spending cuts, when not anchored in any discussion of what is being cut or who is suffering the brunt of the cuts, are extremely popular. If we, with "we" defined as those who wish to protect and/or expand the social safety net, are talking about spending in terms of numbers, such as
"we can't cut several trillion in spending", then we lose. If we talk about it in the ideological abstract, such as
"we must defend progressive principles," then we lose. If we talk about it in the economic abstract, such as
"we can't cut spending in a recession," then we lose.
However, when we start talking specifics, then we are in a position of solid popularity. Check out these questions from the exact same poll:
When we talk about preventing cuts in specific programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and education, then we seize the high ground. The lesson is obvious: never talk about preventing spending cuts without talking about specific programs that you oppose cutting. Preferably, make it a question of priorities, such as "
stop cutting X in order to keep giving rich people tax breaks."
2. Stop yelling at each other.
Stop yelling at rank and file activists who piss you off either because you think they are too personally attached to Obama and other Democratic leaders, or because you think they don't give Obama and other Democratic leaders a fair shake. Just stop it.
This is not a meta point. It's an organizing point. If those of us concerned with protecting and/or expanding the social safety net are ever going to start winning legislative battles in DC again, then we are going to need a majority coalition with an extremely vibrant activist contingent. Few things are more damaging to building such a coalition than if some of the people who have the most potential to join the coalition are engaging in personal attacks and stereotyping against some of the other most people with the most potential to join.
If you are an Obama roxer, it may make you feel better to go off on a rant about how naive and sanctimonious those Obama suxers are. If you are an Obama suxer, hitting the Obama roxers for being deluded and complicit might make you feel good. However, all it does is poison our potential winning coalition. The people who you have the most potential to sway start to hate you, and by extension your cause, rather than wanting to join you.
Agree or disagree on the value of legislative outcomes. Agree or disagree on which Democrats are worthy of support. However, avoid attacks against potential rank and file members of a coalition that could actually protect or expand the social safety net, because all that does is help those who wish to destroy the safety net. If we don't act respectfully toward each other, the loss on the debt ceiling fight will look like a massive all-time victory compared to the losses we will suffer in the future.
3. We aren't strong enough to win policy battles in DC right now. Turn to the states.
To be blunt, I never rolled out much in the way of actions on the debt ceiling fight because I didn't think there was any way victory was possible. In DC, in the short-term, the best we can hope for is to limit the damage.
Conservatives and the rich have commanding control of all the pressure points in DC right now. Consider:
- Democrats are still the governing party during a time when most people are unhappy with the direction of the country.
- Wall Street front groups can run five paid advertisements for every one of their opponents.
- Small donors make a big impact in a few campaigns, but overall on Capitol Hill people who can give $2,000 to campaigns or $5,000 donations to/from PACs still rule the world for the vast majority of elected officials.
- Republicans have a distinct advantage in redistricting, which they can use either against Democrats or against their own wayward measures.
- The tea party and their corporate masters are able to mount several times as many serious primary campaigns against establishment Republicans as progressives can mount against establishment Democrats.
- Business organizations can fly in many more constituents for lobbying days than progressives. Phone calls to Congress are the same story.
And on and on. The deck is stacked against us in DC. This will continue to be the case until we start getting some wins
of the sort I described in the Big Think symposium back in June. We have to start winning elections in ways so that the majority of political observers believe the defeated candidate lost because of popular backlash against slashing the social safety net.
The only place we can do that right now is in the states. We are on the brink of pulling it off in Wisconsin. As I will report in a couple of days, we are making stunningly strong progress in Michigan. (Don't buy any local news reports you might have heard on the Michigan recall effort, by the way. There is some great news I can unveil soon.) Next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see a vibrant recall movement in Ohio, too.
For one reason or another, right now we have real chances in the states that we don't have in DC. In this post, I'm not going to try and explore exactly why that is, but it's probably some combination of far-right Governors, a more united grassroots opposition, increased vibrancy of labor-fueled protests and different constitutional structures that allow for off-cycle electoral events like recalls and citizen referendums. Whatever the cause or causes, there are very real opportunities for electoral victories achieved explicitly through backlash against those who cut the social safety net. Without any comparable opportunities in DC, we need to engage these state fights as hard as we possibly can. Building victories there will start to turn the tide in DC.