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Last week, the state legislature passed new congressional and legislative maps. I thought that I would analyze the new state senate districts that have been drawn by the state legislature. I have created a PVI for each district that analyzes average Democratic/Republican performance over 15 races (2004: President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Auditor; 2008: President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, Insurance Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, Superintendent of Public Instruction; 2010: U.S. Senate). Average Democratic performance was 50.4% and average Republican performance was 48.3%. See below for maps of each district and analysis of each district as well as my own commentary.

First, here is the whole state:
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District 1—Beaufort, Camden, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hyde, Pasquotank, Perquimans
Stan White, D-Dare
R+1
54.5% McCain-44.6% Obama
52.1% Dole-45.4% Hagan
54.9% Perdue-42.6% McCrory
59.6% Burr-38.1% Marshall
47.3% Democratic, 26.3% Republican, 26.3% Unaffiliated
75.0% white, 21.5% black
This coastal/northeastern district was for many years the district of powerful state senate president pro tempore Marc Basnight, who stepped down in December due to illness. Stan White, a real estate company owner from Dare County, was appointed to the seat but has never faced the voters before. The district trades Washington and Tyrrell Counties for Gates and Perquimans Counties, and remains highly competitive, with voters frequently splitting their tickets. This should be a very close race in what is essentially an open seat situation since White is an appointed senator.

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District 2—Carteret, Craven, Pamlico
Jean Preston, R-Carteret
R+8
60.4% McCain-38.7% Obama
54.6% Dole-42.4% Hagan
52.8% Perdue-44.8% McCrory
66.7% Burr-31.3% Marshall
38.7% D, 36.2% R, 25.1% U
79.8% white, 15.8% black
A heavily Republican coastal district for Senator Jean Preston of Carteret County that remains unchanged from the current boundaries. Preston should have no problems here.

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District 3—Bertie, Chowan, Edgecombe, Hertford, Martin, Northampton, Tyrrell, Washington
Clark Jenkins, D-Edgecombe
D+18
62.2% Obama-37.4% McCain
65.7% Hagan-32.7% Dole
72.2% Perdue-26.5% McCrory
58.5% Marshall-40.3% Burr
73.8% D, 13.9% R, 12.2% U
52.4% black, 45.1% white
This is a heavily Democratic (it has the highest Democratic voter registration percentage of any senate district) district that contains many heavily black rural counties in northeastern North Carolina. The senator from this district, Clark Jenkins of Edgecombe County, is actually white, but has won multiple primary elections in a black majority district under the current lines. However, in every election Jenkins has faced a black candidate in the Democratic primary, never receiving more than 64% (2006) of the vote in five primary elections and once receiving just 33% of the vote in the first round (2004). As a result, Jenkins is even more vulnerable to a black primary challenger in this new district with several new counties that he has not represented before.

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District 4—Halifax, Nash (pt.), Vance, Warren, Wilson (pt.)
Ed Jones, D-Halifax
D+19
66.0% Obama-33.6% McCain
68.6% Hagan-29.9% Dole
70.2% Perdue-28.5% McCrory
62.6% Marshall-36.1% Burr
70.2% D, 15.8% R, 14.0% U
52.8% black, 41.7% white
This black majority district in northeastern North Carolina now extends to the west and south of its current lines, taking in all or part of four new counties. By reaching into black areas in Nash and Wilson Counties, it takes some of the pressure off of freshman Republican Senator Buck Newton of Wilson County from the 10th district (under current lines, the 10th district includes all of Nash and Wilson Counties). Democratic incumbent Ed Jones of Halifax County is more than safe here.

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District 5—Greene, Lenoir (pt.), Pitt (pt.), Wayne (pt.)
Open Seat
D+14
62.1% Obama-37.4% McCain
63.6% Hagan-34.5% Dole
68.0% Perdue-30.3% McCrory
57.6% Marshall-41.3% Burr
63.7% D, 19.5% R, 16.7% U
52.0% black, 42.2% white
This is a more Democratic, black majority version of the current 5th district, which was captured by the Republicans in the 2010 wave. It is perfect for a potential comeback by former Democratic 5th district Senator Don Davis of Greene County, who is black but was elected in a competitive, white majority district in 2008.

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District 6—Jones, Onslow
Harry Brown, R-Onslow
R+7
59.7% McCain-39.5% Obama
51.6% Dole-43.9% Hagan
51.2%-Perdue-45.0% McCrory
64.2% Burr-33.2% Marshall
37.6% D, 34.2% R, 28.0% U
75.6% white, 16.9% black
This is a very conservative, Jacksonville-centered district that remains an easy hold for Republican incumbent Senate Majority Leader Harry Brown largely due to the presence of the Camp Lejeune Marine base and a local veteran population that is very Republican. The district’s lines remain unchanged from current boundaries.

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District 7—Lenoir (pt.), Pitt (pt.), Wayne (pt.)
Louis Pate, R-Wayne
R+7
60.4% McCain-39.0% Obama
55.0% Dole-42.7% Hagan
49.2% McCrory-48.8% Perdue
65.8% Burr-32.8% Marshall
44.7% D, 34.3% R, 20.9% U
77.8% white, 16.1% black
This district is similar to the current 5th district that Republican Senator Louis Pate of Wayne County picked up in 2010, but without the black voters in Greene/Wayne Counties that are there now (they are placed in the new 5th district). As a result, Pate gets a heavily Republican district that seems to place him above harm’s reach.

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District 8—Bladen, Brunswick, New Hanover (pt.), Pender
Bill Rabon, R-Brunswick
R+1
55.2% McCain-43.9% Obama
51.4% Hagan-44.5% Dole
49.9% Perdue-46.0% McCrory
59.5% Burr-38.5% Marshall
43.6% D, 31.5% R, 24.8% U
77.1% white, 18.4% black
Republican freshman Senator Bill Rabon of Brunswick County won by a huge margin in 2010 in an open seat against a credible opponent (former state Rep. David Redwine), but the southeastern district he represents is fairly swingy, although it is definitely trending Republican. In a better year for Democrats with the right candidate Rabon is vulnerable to defeat, although this district is slowly slipping away from its ancestrally Democratic roots.

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District 9—New Hanover (pt.)
Thom Goolsby, R-New Hanover
R+3
51.4% McCain-47.6% Obama
52.5% Hagan-43.4% Dole
48.4% Perdue-47.3% McCrory
59.7% Burr-38.0% Marshall
36.3% D, 34.9% R, 28.5% U
83.1% white, 12.3% black
This district, which changes very little, encompasses most of coastal New Hanover County and the city of Wilmington, and is fairly competitive although slightly Republican-leaning. Freshman Republican Senator Thom Goolsby won here in the 2010 wave by 15 points over a strong Democratic opponent in Jim Leutze, the UNC-Wilmington chancellor, but due to the nature of the district, Goolsby could face problems in future elections, but is still favored.

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District 10—Duplin, Johnston (pt.), Sampson
Brent Jackson, R-Sampson; David Rouzer, R-Johnston
R+4
58.3% McCain-41.0% Obama
50.6% Dole-47.0% Hagan
49.4% Perdue-48.7% McCrory
60.5% Burr-38.0% Marshall
46.9% D, 34.1% R, 18.9% U
67.3% white, 21.6% black
The 10th district was captured in 2010 as well, yet another open seat in eastern NC that flipped to the Republicans, although freshman Senator Brent Jackson of Sampson County only won with 52% in an otherwise good Republican year in North Carolina, so he could be vulnerable in the future. The new 10th district trades all of Lenoir County for a large part of heavily Republican Johnston County, where Republican Senator David Rouzer lives—this is irrelevant though, since Rouzer is running in the 7th congressional district against Democratic incumbent Rep. Mike McIntyre. If 2010 Democratic candidate Dewey Hudson, a local district attorney, runs again, this could be a real race, although the addition of much of Johnston County is problematic to Democratic chances of winning back the seat.

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District 11—Johnston (pt.), Nash (pt.), Wilson (pt.)
Buck Newton, R-Wilson
R+6
58.7% McCain-40.6% Obama
52.6% Dole-45.3% Hagan
52.1% McCrory-46.0% Perdue
60.3% Burr-37.9% Marshall
45.8% D, 34.3% R, 19.7% U
70.4% white, 22.7% black
The last of the Republican freshmen elected from eastern North Carolina is Buck Newton of Wilson County, who had a particularly nasty race against Democratic incumbent A.B. Swindell in 2010 but prevailed with 53% of the vote. What was before an Obama district consisting of all of Nash and Wilson Counties becomes much more Republican as most of the black voters in Nash and Wilson Counties are transferred to the 4th district, and part of heavily Republican Johnston County is added to the 10th district. Newton is highly favored to win in such a Republican district.

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District 12—Harnett, Johnston (pt.), Lee
Open Seat
R+5
57.7% McCain-41.4% Obama
50.9% Dole-46.0% Hagan
50.9% McCrory-46.5% Perdue
59.9% Burr-38.1% Marshall
45.0% D, 33.3% R, 21.5% U
71.9% white, 19.6% black
This is an open seat that some people believe House Redistricting Committee Chair David Lewis of Harnett County will run in. If Lewis does run, he would likely win as this is a fairly Republican seat, although technically any Republican has an advantage. If former Democratic Rep. Jimmy Love from Lee County gets in it could be a race (Love lost reelection to his House seat in 2010, but is almost 80 years old), although this is still favored as a GOP seat regardless.

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District 13—Columbus, Robeson
Michael Walters, D-Robeson
D+13
52.4% Obama-46.7% McCain
58.6% Hagan-39.3% Dole
68.5% Perdue-29.7% McCrory
49.7% Marshall-48.7% Burr
72.1% D, 15.1% U, 12.7% R
41.9% white, 27.4% Native American, 26.4% black
This is a heavily Democratic, racially diverse (Robeson County is home to the Lumbee Indian tribe, as well as a large black population) district in southeastern NC that is also very Democratic. It has the smallest percentage of registered Republicans of any district in the state at just 12.7%. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Walters of Robeson County is fine here, although a Native American or black candidate could conceivably run against him in the primary, as a majority of the Democratic primary voters are minorities.

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District 14—Wake (pt.)
Dan Blue, D-Wake
D+23
76.1% Obama-23.3% McCain
74.9% Hagan-22.8% Dole
72.0% Perdue-25.3% McCrory
71.2% Marshall-27.1% Burr
62.4% D, 21.2% U, 16.3% R
51.3% black, 35.8% white
Democratic Senator Dan Blue’s eastern Raleigh/Wake County seat is reconfigured as a majority black district that is heavily Democratic. Blue is a respected member of not only the African-American community but also of the statewide Democratic Party establishment, having served as House Speaker from 1991-1995, the first African-American to hold the position, and is more than safe in this district.

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District 15—Wake (pt.)
R+4
49.9% McCain-49.1% Obama
48.7% Hagan-48.6% Dole
53.6% McCrory -42.6% Perdue
57.5% Burr-40.1% Marshall
37.1% R, 35.2% D, 27.5% U
83.7% white, 10.1% black
The first district so far to have a plurality of registered Republicans, this is a suburban Wake County seat based in North Raleigh. It leans Republican and is potentially competitive, but Republican Senator Neal Hunt won in what was then an Obama district in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 so he should be fine here in a more Republican version of his current district.

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District 16—Wake (pt.)
Josh Stein, D-Wake
D+9
63.2% Obama-35.6% McCain
61.7% Hagan-34.8% Dole
55.2% Perdue-40.0% McCrory
55.0% Marshall-42.0% Burr
42.3% D, 31.9% U, 25.5% R
70.6% white, 15.0% black
This is a Democratic, white majority district that has some liberal areas in Raleigh as well as much of the town of Cary, and it will continue to easily elect Democratic Senate Whip Josh Stein of Raleigh until he retires or moves up to higher office.

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District 17—Wake (pt.)
Richard Stevens, R-Wake
R+5
50.2% McCain-48.7% Obama
48.5% Dole-48.0% Hagan
53.2% McCrory -42.7% Perdue
57.9% Burr-39.4% Marshall
36.9% R, 31.6% D, 31.2% U
79.9% white, 9.5% black
This is a southern Wake County district that is fairly Republican and should be an easy hold for Republican incumbent Senator Richard Stevens, who won by over 25 points in 2010.

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District 18—Franklin, Wake (pt.)
Doug Berger, D-Franklin
R+2
51.2% McCain-47.9% Obama
49.9% Hagan-47.1% Dole
49.0% McCrory -48.0% Perdue
55.6% Burr-42.3% Marshall
44.1% D, 33.5% R, 22.2% U
72.3% white, 22.1% black
Democratic Senator Doug Berger of Franklin County is one of the lawmakers most adversely affected by redistricting. He currently represents all of Granville, Franklin, Vance, and Warren Counties. Under the new plan, Berger is only left with Republican-leaning Franklin County as the other three counties, which are Democratic and have large black populations, are transferred to nearby black majority districts. In exchange, the district picks up Republican-friendly areas in Wake County, making the district much more Republican. Berger lost Franklin County in 2010 and only received 53% there in the excellent Democratic year of 2008, so this seat will be highly competitive but on the surface leans slightly Republican.

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District 19—Cumberland (pt.)
Wesley Meredith, R-Cumberland
D+2
49.7% Obama-49.6% McCain
53.5% Hagan-44.0% Dole
54.8% Perdue-42.9% McCrory
53.3% Burr-44.9% Marshall
47.4% D, 28.6% R, 23.8% U
68.5% white, 22.5% black
In 2010, Republican freshman Senator Wesley Meredith defeated Democratic incumbent Margaret Dickson with what was one of the nastiest campaigns last year (see this Meredith campaign ad that many feel compared Dickson to a prostitute: http://www.youtube.com/...). The Republicans tried as hard as possible to remove black voters and Democrats from Meredith’s district, but it still went for Obama and leans Democratic. Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, Dickson’s home is moved into the 21st district and so one of their strongest potential candidates cannot run. Perhaps either of Democratic state Reps. Diane Parfitt or Rick Glazier, who have been put into the same House district, could run. Regardless, Meredith is likely to have a difficult reelection in this highly competitive district.

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District 20—Durham (pt.), Granville
Floyd McKissick, D-Durham
D+25
75.6% Obama-23.8% McCain
75.6% Hagan-22.3% Dole
73.6% Perdue-23.6% McCrory
72.4% Marshall-26.2% Burr
66.9% D, 19.0% U, 14.0% R
51.0% black, 38.9% white
This black majority district continues to take in much of Durham County, but now has a black majority and expands to take in all of Granville County. This district is very safe for Democratic Senator Floyd McKissick of Durham.

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District 21—Cumberland (pt.), Hoke
Eric Mansfield, D-Cumberland
D+17
67.8% Obama-31.7% McCain
68.7% Hagan-29.1% Dole
69.8% Perdue-28.2% McCrory
63.1% Marshall-35.4% Burr
57.2% D, 23.2% U, 19.5% R
51.5% black, 37.8% white
This Fayetteville-based district becomes much less compact and takes what its incumbent, Democrat Eric Mansfield, described as a crab shape, as it has many strips and tendrils to pick up as many black voters in Cumberland County as possible. This serves two purposes: it brings the 21st district up to a black majority, which it was not under the 2003 lines, and protects 19th district GOP incumbent Wesley Meredith by removing Democrats from his competitive district.

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District 22—Caswell, Durham (pt.), Person
Open Seat
D+11
62.1% Obama-36.9% McCain
62.8% Hagan-34.5% Dole
60.1% Perdue-35.7% McCrory
57.8% Marshall-40.2% Burr
54.0% D, 25.2% U, 20.6% R
61.7% white, 36.9% black
This is an open seat that is heavily Democratic, containing white areas in very Democratic Durham County, and all of more competitive Caswell and Person Counties. No incumbents live here, so a possible candidate is Democratic state Rep. Winkie Wilkins of Person County, who has been placed in the same House district as Democratic state Rep. Jim Crawford of Granville County (probably the most conservative Democrat in the House) and might want to avoid a contentious primary against Crawford.

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District 23—Chatham, Orange
Bob Atwater, D-Chatham; Ellie Kinnaird, D-Orange
D+13
66.5% Obama-32.4% McCain
65.9% Hagan-31.2% Dole
61.4% Perdue-34.2% McCrory
61.5% Marshall-36.2% Burr
50.9% D, 28.5% U, 20.4% R
77.0% white, 12.8% black
This seat sets up a battle between two incumbent Democrats in a safely Democratic seat. The first is Senator Ellie Kinnaird of Orange County, who currently represents all of Orange and Person Counties and has served since 1997. The second senator in the district is Senator Bob Atwater, who has represented part of Durham and all of Chatham County since 2005. The new district is 68% Orange County voting age population and 32% Chatham County, which along with her seniority and significance as a liberal icon in the state senate gives Kinnaird a distinct advantage in a primary.

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District 24—Alamance, Randolph (pt.)
Rick Gunn, R-Alamance
R+7
57.3% McCain-41.7% Obama
50.5% Dole-46.0% Hagan
51.3% McCrory -45.1% Perdue
63.2% Burr-34.2% Marshall
41.0% D, 37.2% R, 21.7% U
76.6% white, 16.6% black
In 2010, two-term Democratic incumbent Senator Tony Foriest was defeated by 11 points by Republican Rick Gunn in the 24th district, a rematch of the 2008 election in which Foriest won by 5 points. The district becomes more Republican by trading Democratic Caswell County for part of Randolph County, the most Republican county in North Carolina, so Gunn should be safe in this new incarnation of the 24th district.

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District 25—Anson, Richmond, Rowan (pt.), Scotland, Stanly
Bill Purcell, D-Scotland
R+3
56.9% McCain-42.2% Obama
48.5% Hagan-48.0% Dole
53.0% McCrory-45.0% Perdue
57.2% Burr-40.8% Marshall
50.8% D, 29.6% R, 19.5% U
70.4% white, 23.7% black
Democratic Senator Bill Purcell of Scotland County is a tough incumbent in a highly competitive district who won narrowly in 2010 with 51% of the vote. While Scotland, Richmond, and Anson Counties are all Democratic, Stanly County is highly Republican and gives the 25th district a slight Republican lean. The district keeps the four current counties already in the district and becomes a bit more Republican by picking up 10 heavily Republican precincts in Rowan County. Because of his success in past races, Purcell has an edge, but this district will likely be in play regardless.

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District 26—Guilford (pt.), Rockingham
Phil Berger, R-Rockingham; Don Vaughan, D-Guilford
R+6
55.8% McCain-43.2% Obama
49.1% Hagan-47.6% Dole
51.0% McCrory-45.4% Perdue
64.0% Burr-33.4% Marshall
41.0% D, 36.4% R, 22.4% U
80.4% white, 15.3% black
This is the district of state senate president pro tempore Phil Berger of Rockingham County, and now also of Democratic Senator Don Vaughan of Guilford County, who is drawn out of his 27th district. While Vaughan is popular in Greensboro and has a moderate profile, should Vaughan choose to run against Berger he would likely lose, as this new 26th district is heavily Republican and Berger has great clout as the leader of the state senate.

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District 27—Guilford (pt.)
Open Seat
R+5
53.3% McCain-45.8% Obama
50.4% Hagan-46.7% Dole
51.0% McCrory-45.8% Perdue
61.2% Burr-36.8% Marshall
39.7% D, 37.7% R, 22.5% U
75.5% white, 17.0% black
This is an open seat in Guilford County that replaces the old 27th district, which was heavily Democratic and represented by Democrat Don Vaughan and before him, Kay Hagan, who is now a U.S. Senator. It loses many Democratic precincts to the 28th district and now leans Republican.

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28—Guilford (pt.)
Gladys Robinson, D-Guilford
D+29
81.7% Obama -17.7% McCain
81.9% Hagan-16.1% Dole
79.5% Perdue-17.9% McCrory
75.7% Marshall-22.8% Burr
66.7% D, 19.3% U, 13.9% R
56.5% black, 34.0% white
This black-majority seat centered on Greensboro is designed to pack as many Democrats from Guilford County in as possible--it is the most Democratic seat in the entire state and has the highest black percentage of any district. This seat is safe for Democratic Senator Gladys Robinson.

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29—Moore, Randolph (pt.)
Harris Blake, R-Moore; Jerry Tillman, R-Randolph
R+15
65.3% McCain-33.7% Obama
57.0% Dole-39.0% Hagan
60.6% McCrory-36.1% Perdue
70.8% Burr-26.6% Marshall
46.4% R, 27.9% D, 25.5% U
85.2% white, 9.0% black
This highly Republican (it has the highest Republican voter registration of any senate district) Piedmont/Sandhills seat has the homes of two Republican incumbents, Senator Jerry Tillman of Randolph County, the Senate Majority Whip, and Senator Harris Blake of Moore County. Blake has already announced his retirement. The new seat has roughly 53% voting age population from Randolph County and 47% from Moore County, and is safely Republican for Tillman.

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30—Stokes, Surry, Wilkes
Don East, R-Surry
R+13
66.1% McCain-32.5% Obama
56.2% Dole-39.5% Hagan
54.7% McCrory-41.7% Perdue
68.7% Burr-28.6% Marshall
46.1% R, 34.1% D, 19.7% U
91.7% white, 4.2% black
This is a highly Republican foothills district that is safe for Senator Don East of Surry County.

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31—Forsyth (pt.), Yadkin
Peter Brunstetter, R-Forsyth; Linda Garrou, D-Forsyth
R+12
60.5% McCain-38.6% Obama
54.3% Dole-42.6% Hagan
56.2% McCrory-40.7% Perdue
69.0% Burr-29.1% Marshall
46.3% R, 31.1% D, 22.5% U
89.2% white, 6.4% black
This heavily Republican district has the homes of two Forsyth County senators, Republican Peter Brunstetter, who co-chairs the Appropriations Committee, and Linda Garrou, who is the Deputy Democratic Leader. Garrou currently represents a heavily Democratic district focused on Winston-Salem, but her home is moved into Brunstetter's district, which is probably too Republican for her or any Democrat to win.

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32—Forsyth (pt.)
Open Seat
D+16
69.3% Obama-29.8% McCain
70.1% Hagan-27.3% Dole
68.9% Perdue-28.3% McCrory
59.1% Marshall-39.0% Burr     
57.7% D, 22.1% R, 20.0% U
45.3% white, 42.5% black
This is a heavily Democratic open seat currently represented by Deputy Democratic Leader Linda Garrou, but her home has been moved into Republican Peter Brunstetter's district, so it is likely that unless Garrou moves to this 32nd district a black Democrat would win this seat.

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33—Davidson, Montgomery
Stan Bingham, R-Davidson
R+12
64.6% McCain-34.3% Obama
55.4% Dole-40.7% Hagan
56.4% McCrory-40.2% Perdue
68.2% Burr-29.4% Marshall
43.9% R, 34.7% D, 21.3% U
84.1% white, 10.2% black
This seat is based in Davidson County and is highly Republican, safe for sometimes moderate Republican Sen. Stan Bingham of Davidson County, although he may face a primary challenge in the future from a more conservative candidate.

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34—Davie, Iredell (pt.), Rowan (pt.)
Andrew Brock, R-Davie
R+11
61.8% McCain-37.1% Obama
54.7% Dole-41.5% Hagan
60.0% McCrory-37.4% Perdue
65.9% Burr-31.6% Marshall
42.8% R, 34.5% D, 22.6% U
80.4% white, 14.2% black
Another very Republican Piedmont district based in Rowan County that is safe for Republican Senator Andrew Brock of Davie County.

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35—Union (pt.)
Tommy Tucker, R-Union
R+15
62.1% McCain-37.0% Obama
57.2% Dole-39.3% Hagan
67.8% McCrory-30.2% Perdue
68.7% Burr-29.0% Marshall
43.1% R, 30.9% D, 25.7% U
80.0% white, 12.3% black
This is the most Republican district in the state, more than safe for Republican Senator Tommy Tucker.

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36—Cabarrus, Union (pt.)
Fletcher Hartsell, R-Cabarrus
R+11
59.9% McCain-39.4% Obama
52.8% Dole-43.3% Hagan
64.2% McCrory-33.7% Perdue
65.4% Burr-32.4% Marshall
40.9% R, 34.1% D, 24.8% U
79.2% white, 14.1% black
This is a heavily Republican district based in Cabarrus County for Republican Senator Fletcher Hartsell of Cabarrus County.

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37—Mecklenburg (pt.)
Dan Clodfelter, D-Mecklenburg
D+11
66.3% Obama-32.8% McCain
65.5% Hagan-31.0% Dole
51.2% Perdue-46.2% McCrory
57.7% Marshall-40.0% Burr
46.4% D, 28.8% U, 24.6% R
58.5% white, 26.3% black
This is a Democratic, white majority district based in Charlotte that is safe for Democratic Senator Dan Clodfelter, who drew the 2003 state senate map.

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38—Mecklenburg (pt.)
Charlie Dannelly, D-Mecklenburg
D+24
77.9% Obama-21.5% McCain
77.4% Hagan-20.3% Dole
70.2% Perdue-28.1% McCrory
73.5% Marshall-25.1% Burr
62.8% D, 21.3% U, 15.8% R
52.5% black, 36.0% white
One of two black majority districts located in Mecklenburg County, this is safely Democratic for Senator Charlie Dannelly.

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39—Mecklenburg (pt.)
Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg
R+12
54.8% McCain-44.4% Obama
52.2% Dole-44.7% Hagan
71.5% McCrory-26.6% Perdue
64.8% Burr-33.3% Marshall
43.4% R, 28.2% D, 28.3% U
85.2% white, 7.0% black
This is the district of Senator Bob Rucho, who chaired the state senate redistricting committee this redistricting and who, no surprise, has drawn himself a safely Republican district.

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40—Mecklenburg (pt.)
Malcolm Graham, D-Mecklenburg
D+26
80.1% Obama-19.3% McCain
79.0% Hagan-18.5% Dole
72.0% Perdue-26.1% McCrory
75.3% Marshall-23.3% Burr
63.7% D, 21.3% U, 14.8% R
51.8% black, 32.4% white
Democratic Senator Malcolm Graham's seat loses GOP-friendly areas in northern Mecklenburg County and goes from around 35% black to a black majority district.

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41—Mecklenburg (pt.)
Open Seat
R+9
52.3% McCain-46.9% Obama
48.8% Dole-47.8% Hagan
64.7% McCrory-33.3% Perdue
60.5% Burr-37.6% Marshall
39.2% R, 32.5% D, 28.1% U
80.1% white, 13.1% black
This is a new Republican open seat drawn that connects Republican areas in northern and southern Mecklenburg County, and there are any number of local Republicans who could run here.

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42—Alexander, Catawba
Austin Allran, R-Catawba
R+13
63.2% McCain-35.5% Obama
56.1% Dole-39.9% Hagan
64.9% McCrory-33.1% Perdue
66.8% Burr-30.7% Marshall
44.2% R, 31.2% D, 24.5% U
85.6% white, 8.0% black
This is one of the most Republican seats in the state, based in the Hickory area, for Republican Senator Austin Allran of Catawba County, who has been in office since 1987.

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43—Gaston (pt.)
Kathy Harrington, R-Gaston
R+11
62.0% McCain-37.4% Obama
54.5% Dole-41.9% Hagan
63.2% McCrory-35.0% Perdue
66.0% Burr-31.6% Marshall
38.9% R, 37.7%D, 23.3% U
80.3% white, 14.8% black
In 2008, 20-year Democratic incumbent David Hoyle spent nearly $1 million of his own money and still only won 51%-49% against Republican Kathy Harrington. In 2010, Hoyle retired and Harrington won by 39 points over her Democratic opponent. This Gaston County seat is Harrington's as long as she likes.

Photobucket
44—Gaston (pt.), Iredell (pt.), Lincoln
Jim Forrester, R-Gaston
R+13
62.5% McCain-36.4% Obama
55.5% Dole-40.1% Hagan
66.3% McCrory-31.5% Perdue
67.3% Burr-30.2% Marshall
41.7% R, 32.7% D, 25.5% U
85.4% white, 9.9% black
Republican Senator Jim Forrester is one of the most conservative members of the state senate, and his new district is a good match for his ideological profile. It changes very little but now takes in more areas in Iredell County.

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45—Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Caldwell, Watauga
Dan Soucek, R-Watauga
R+9
58.6% McCain-39.8% Obama
51.2% Dole-44.0% Hagan
56.5% McCrory-40.3% Perdue
62.6% Burr-34.5% Marshall
42.3% R, 32.3% D, 25.1% U
93.4% white, 3.2% black
This seat was captured by Republican Senator Dan Soucek of Watauga County in 2010 by 20 points and trades heavily Republican Wilkes and Alexander Counties for also heavily Republican Avery and Caldwell Counties. It is the whitest senate district in the state and is likely too Republican to be retaken, especially with the new territory taken in that is incredibly hostile to Democrats.

Photobucket
46—Burke, Cleveland
Debbie Clary, R-Cleveland; Warren Daniel, R-Burke
R+5
59.3% McCain-39.7% Obama
49.2% Dole-47.2% Hagan
56.2% McCrory-41.8% Perdue
59.9% Burr-38.0% Marshall
44.7% D, 32.7%    R, 22.5% U
82.0% white, 13.5% black
While this heavily Republican seat combines the homes of two Republican incumbents, Debbie Clary of Cleveland County and Warren Daniel of Burke County, Clary has said that she will retire. This is a safely Republican Western NC seat.

Photobucket
47—Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Yancey
Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell
R+7
60.8% McCain-37.8% Obama
50.6% Dole-45.3% Hagan
51.2% McCrory-45.3% Perdue
62.4% Burr-35.0% Marshall
38.7% D, 36.6% R, 24.5% U
91.7% white, 5.3% black
This seat was one of three mountain districts captured by the Republicans in 2010. The previous Democratic occupant of this seat, Joe Sam Queen, cannot run again for this seat as his home county of Haywood is moved into the 50th district, so Republican Senator Ralph Hise's strongest potential opponent is effectively neutralized.

Photobucket
48—Buncombe (pt.), Henderson, Transylvania
Tom Apodaca, R-Henderson
R+8
57.0% McCain-41.8% Obama
51.8% Dole-44.5% Hagan
52.3% McCrory-44.1% Perdue
62.7% Burr-34.8% Marshall
38.9% R, 31.6% U, 29.3% D
91.5% white, 3.5% black
This is a heavily Republican mountains seat south of Asheville. It is more than safe for Republican Senator Tom Apodaca of Henderson County.

Photobucket
49—Bucombe (pt.)
Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe
D+7
58.4% Obama-40.3% McCain
59.9% Hagan-36.2% Dole
59.3% Perdue-36.5% McCrory
52.9% Marshall-44.4% Burr
45.5% D, 25.5% R, 28.9% U
88.8% white, 6.8% black
This seat is quite different than the other mountains districts as it is not only a somewhat urban district confined to one county, but it is also heavily Democratic due to the influence of liberal Asheville. It is a safe seat for Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt.

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50—Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Macon, Swain
Jim Davis, R-Macon
R+4
56.7% McCain-41.7% Obama
49.5% Dole-46.9% Hagan
50.4% Perdue-46.0% McCrory
58.3% Burr-38.4% Marshall
41.1% D, 33.1% R, 25.7% U
91.7% white, 1.4% black
The final senate district, this was home to the closest senate election in 2010, in which Republican Jim Davis prevailed over Democratic incumbent John Snow by just 161 votes. The district actually becomes slightly more Democratic with the addition of Democratic (at the state level, at least) Haywood County. As a result, this seat could be considered competitive, especially if Snow runs again.

Please comment and let me know what you think!

Originally posted to possumtracker on Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 11:13 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

    •  Solid analysis (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      polecat

      but with the DOJ Review and court cases/VRA challenges coming, I don't expect this to be the final map.

      "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by bear83 on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 07:35:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh wonderful, I still get blessed by Phil Berger. (0+ / 0-)

    Barf.

  •  Great work, thank you. nt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, polecat, Xenocrypt

    Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

    by pico on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 12:56:06 AM PDT

  •  excellent write up (0+ / 0-)

    So as far as 2012 goes, 27 looks like it will flip from D to R.  The most vulnerable Rs are in 19 and 50.  Most vulnerable Ds are in 1, 18, and 25.  Sound about right?

  •  I can't tell what district I would be in (0+ / 0-)

    I'm in Durham County and can't figure out if I'm in the splotch of 20 or in 22. The boundary is so crazy that even looking at a more detailed map doesn't help.

    •  I'm in 22 - I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      The crazy thing is, both 20 and 22 are heavily Democratic. There's no partisan advantage to be gained. They just drew these nutty lines to pull as many black voters into McKissick's district as possible.

      I guess Republicans must think that black senators can't possibly represent white voters. I have a newsflash for the TeaOP - I've been perfectly happy with McKissick as my senator.

       

      "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by bear83 on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 05:02:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How can you tell? (0+ / 0-)

        Do I just have to wait until I get my new registration card? I'm currently in the 18th District, so Atwater is my State Sen.

        I agree that it makes no sense to split Durham this way. I don't care what color a person is, I care what they stand for. But then I'm not a Republican. Most of the people I know in Durham would vote for a ham sandwich if it were running as a Democrat against a Republican.

      •  They are claiming that the VRA requires (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, bear83

        50%+1 black districts, something the Democratic Party has not used in the past as a criteria. It was interesting to listen to the debate last week and hear McKissick and other black legislators like Eric Mansfield say that 50% black was not necessary and the Republicans somehow acting like they knew better than the black legislators themselves what was good for them.

        •  50% + 1 is total B.S. (0+ / 0-)

          as evidenced by the number of black legislators elected from districts that are less that 50%.

          50% + 1 is just a conveneint excuse for the GOP to use to pack minority voters into the fewest possible districts.

          The big question now is whether or not the DOJ or the courts will see a problem with it. It will be interesting to see how Roy Cooper goes about representing the state on this.

          "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

          by bear83 on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 07:58:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bear83

            It is based on a reverse reading of Bartlett. What Bartlett says is that the VRA does not require white-majority 'crossover' districts. That does not necessarily mean that it requires 50%+1 districts anywhere that they can be created. That would still be governed by the Gingles factors as always.

            That said, my so-far partial review of the NC Senate map suggests that a favorable ruling would not make any great difference. In a few cases, such as if you even out the lines between Sen-21 and Sen-19 in Cumberland County, you would end up with a marginal seat taking on a more Democratic lean, but that's about it.

            With the NC House map it could make a much more significant difference.

  •  My "DPI" Scale (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bear83

    In case you're interested, I'm trying to develop a so-called "Democratic Performance Index" to assess the partisan lean of North Carolina legislative seats. I haven't rated the NC House yet, but below is my ranking of NC Senate seats.

    This is basically an average of how much the seat overperformed or underperformed the statewide Democratic candidate in 5 races: Bowles '04, Obama '08, Perdue '08, Hagan '08, Marshall '10.

    The colors indicate which party currently holds the seat. If the seat is in bold italics then it is expected to be an open seat.

    •  Yeah that's a cool system (0+ / 0-)

      It was hard for me to figure out which races to use for my PVI system, in the end I just used every race there was data for as I said above. I can only see one seat that would be really different (more than a point or two) from our two systems. Columbus County in SD 13 went for McCain but was very Democratic in the statewide office races, so while I showed a PVI of D+13 yours is just D+9. Other than that there aren't many big derivations between our two systems of assessing over/under-performance.

    •  Permanent GOP majority? (0+ / 0-)

      Even if the Dems hold every current seat, win every tossup and every lean/likely seat, that's still a 26-24 GOP majoirty.

      We really need a few map tweaks courtesy of the DOJ.

      Also, aren't there a couple of these that are 'OPEN''?

      "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by bear83 on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 04:56:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If McCrory wins the governorship (0+ / 0-)

        And we still win the NCGA somehow under this map, as you said there is probably a ceiling of 26 seats, we would not be able to override his vetoes as that would require 30 seats, assuming party unity on votes, which would not surprise me in the polarized senate.

        Yeah, there are 5 open seats, which is a lot considering that's 10% of all the seats.

  •  Wonderful work (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    So Obama carried the state with 16 of these 50 districts?  But Hagan and Perdue each carried 24, although not the same 24.

    Obama: 3, 4, 5, 13, 14, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 32, 37, 38, 40, 49.
    Hagan: Those, plus 8, 9, 15, 18, 25, 26, 27, 28.
    Perdue: Obama's, plus 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 16, 28.

    So Obama won the baseline districts, Hagan and Perdue won those plus 8, 9, 28.  Hagan won 15, 18, 25, 26, 27 too, while Perdue lost those but won 1, 2, 6, 10, 16.

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 11:07:12 AM PDT

    •  Oh, Obama won 28 too. (eom) (0+ / 0-)

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 11:11:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And Marshall (0+ / 0-)

      despite losing, carried the same districts Obama did, other than 19 (which Obama only won very narrowly).  I remember when Nate Silver did an analysis of some survey that found that North Carolina might be a swing state but it has very few swing voters--just a reasonably equal distribution of partisans.  Perhaps this is related.  

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 11:25:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perdue vs. Hagan (0+ / 0-)

      Perdue outperformed Hagan in the eastern rural districts while Hagan outperformed Perdue in the Piedmont suburbs. This of course reflects the differential in Dole's demographic appeal vs. McCrory's demographic appeal.

      At least one or the other won 29 state senate districts, which should safely represent what Democrats can compete for.

      •  I might have thought (0+ / 0-)

        From just reading about the race, that McCrory might have won some Charlotte-area districts that Obama won.  But winning/losing doesn't always tell the tale--McCrory way outperformed in 41 and 39 and kept it close in 37.

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 12:32:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks! (0+ / 0-)

      For the complement and that analysis. It was interesting to see the effects of ticket splitting which is why I tried to put in the three top '08 races to show that there were a lot of seats that split. It was particularly interesting to me how well Perdue did in Eastern NC, her home region (she is from Craven County and used to represent SD 2) winning seats that both Hagan and Obama lost.

  •  Harris Blake has announced (0+ / 0-)

    retirement already. I read it in the local paper around my area. So, I guess my new representative is Jerry Tillman.

    DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 11:28:48 AM PDT

  •  Excellent job. (0+ / 0-)

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 03, 2011 at 03:12:03 PM PDT

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