We are approaching the perfect political and sociological storm caused by the undeniable impact of climate change, the continued explosive growth of population, globalization and urbanization added to the exhaustion of energy and resources like water. For example, just the demographic shift in available workers for future production throws all long term economic and political prognostication into turmoil.
It has been estimated in some business journals that only sub-Saharan Africa stands to see an appreciable growth in youth manpower. In fact, the sub-Sahara will account for over 100% of total growth in the world‘s 15-29 population, because many regions will find their pools of young manpower shrinking over the next two decades. Japan and Europe as a whole are both on course for significant absolute declines in this key manpower pool over the next 20 years (prospective drops of almost 25%). But, by far the most massive falloff in young manpower is set to take place in China. Over the next 20 years, by the Census Bureau‘s projections, this key working age group will be falling in China by fully 100 million persons—or over 30 percent.
Recent surveys by Gallup found that world wide roughly 700 million adults would like to migrate to another country permanently if they had the chance. The United States is the top desired destination country. Nearly one-quarter (24%) of these respondents, which translates to more than 165 million adults worldwide, name the United States as their desired future residence. With an additional estimated 45 million saying they would like to move to Canada, Northern America is one of the two most desired regions.
The rest of the top desired destination countries (those where an estimated 25 million or more adults would like to go) are predominantly European. Forty-five million adults who would like to move to the United Kingdom or to France as their desired destination, while 35 million would like to go to Spain and 25 million would like to relocate to Germany. Thirty-million consider moving to Saudi Arabia and an additional 25 million to Australia.
In 2008 some two hundred million people — 3% of the worlds population — were living outside their native land. In most first world countries the population of foreign born was over 10%.
The most ironic fact of all this is that in all likelihood the future lies in the North Central US, Canada and Siberia. Those working age people will flock to the agricultural and natural resource jobs made available by warming and diminishing resources elsewhere (think water and wind). The already minuscule population bases of these areas (6 million in Siberia and 35 million in Canada, that currently comprises about .05% of the worlds population on about 15-20% of its land area) will be overwhelmed by these new immigrants, irrevocably altering those societies.
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Please see Trenz Prucas Journal for additional commentary by the author. Also, see Papa Joes Tales for some entertaining stories. Finally, for those interested, here is a link to a Campaign for the Republican Nomination for President of the United States that may either amuse or annoy you.