Remember this guy?
Fred Thompson turned out to be all hat, no cattle, as they say in the southernmost parts of New York City.
Now, Rick Perry is no Grampa Fred. He's a great deal more energetic and possibly a great deal more ambitious. He has cash to tap and a strong appeal to evangelicals and social conservatives. He plays well in GOP primary polling, even without declaring. But how is he going to play on a national stage?
Let's start with some polling. This is Gallup's latest:
Even with little name recognition, Perry does pretty well, especially in intensity. His favorables are just okay, trailing Mitt Romney considerably, though Romney's intensity is very weak for a front-runner.
July Iowa polling from ARG has Bachmann (21) and Romney (18) in front, with Perry at 2, but that's a better gauge of his competition. This year getting in late won't hurt as much. Similarly, Mason-Dixon has Bachmann (32), Romney (29), everyone else in single digits and no Perry at all. That won't last.
In NH, also in July, the lineup is Romney 29, Bachmann 12, Perry 2. NH is a state that Perry won't play well in, and Romney has a distinct advantage.
But the real talk these days is about Perry's weaknesses. This is from Politico:
To a sizable slice of the Republican base, Rick Perry looks like the conservative, charismatic presidential candidate they have been waiting for in the 2012 campaign.
To many GOP elites, however, the Texan looks more like a general election flop in the making.
Few Republicans will say as much in public, for fear of offending the conservative grassroots or antagonizing Perry, a powerful official who’s known to hold a grudge. But in private, in some quarters of the party a sense of apprehension has set in about the prospect of another Texas governor’s candidacy.
Even operatives who believe Perry would bring significant assets to the 2012 campaign—his job-creation record among them—acknowledge there are real doubts about whether a brash, Southern hard-liner like Perry can win votes in the crucial swing states needed to capture the White House.
Here's
another good example:
Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s upcoming day of prayer and fasting is a political gamble, says a leading Iowa Republican state legislator.
“The situation with Gov. Perry seems a little strange and dramatic,” said state Rep. Josh Byrnes in POLITICO’s Arena. “I am a strong Catholic; however, I don’t use my religion as a side show with my legislative duties. I have had some Republicans tell me they were excited about Perry running for president until this Aug. 6 event.”
This isn't to say that Perry can't or won't win the nomination. Romney's so weak that assuming it's him (like he does, himself) is fraught with peril, even though I still think in the end it'll be him on the strength of electability. But check those intensity scores, and you'll see why it's not a lock.
I'll give the last word to PPP:
A broad theme has been emerging in our state by state Presidential polling over the last couple months: if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney it's a toss up. And if they nominate anyone else it's 2008 all over again. Our newest Nevada numbers very much reinforce that trend.
Things can change, and they undoubtedly will. But Rick Perry, while formidable, is not automatically the next president just because he decides to run.
Added from Hotline On Call:
With the economy sputtering, Democratic political operatives view former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the main Republican threat to President Obama's reelection, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
Democratic Insiders see Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has not yet declared whether or not he will run for president, as the second strongest against Obama. A separate poll of Republican insiders, released Thursday, also showed Perry as Romney's main GOP challenger.