While it is still fifteen months out from Election Day, a clear polling theme is developing in the battle for the White House. And, for what it's worth, the current numbers are telling us to expect a very late night next November.
On the heels of new numbers this week from Quinnipiac in the key states of Florida and Pennsylvania, PPP gets in on the fun by projecting yet another coin flip in an Obama 2008 state. This time, it is out west in Nevada, where once again the president leads most of the GOP field, but is perilously close when paired with Mitt Romney.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/28-7/31. Nevada voters. April results in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D) 47 (43)
Mitt Romney (R) 46 (46)
Barack Obama (D) 49 (--)
Rick Perry (R) 40 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 48 (--)
Herman Cain (R) 39 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 50 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R) 40 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 51 (50)
Sarah Palin (R) 39 (39)
Unlike Florida and Pennsylvania, where the Q poll had Obama's standing slipping a bit from previous polls, the president's numbers in the Silver State have actually rebounded a bit from a few months back, when he actually trailed Romney. That said, there is still a little cause for alarm here—after all, every candidate (even the GOP dead weight known as Sarah Palin) are within the margin by which Obama defeated John McCain here in 2008.
Nevada is not a huge prize in terms of electoral votes (though reapportionment did bump it from five electoral votes to six), but it represents a state that had seemed on an inexorable path of heading from red-to-blue. Thus, it is a state that Democrats would dearly like to keep in their coalition for 2012. What's more, it will have a high-profile Senate race next year, one of the few legitimate targeting opportunities for Democrats to claim a GOP-held Senate seat. Add to that the potential for 2-3 legitimate House races, and Nevada will get a lot of attention next year.
PPP also polled the Republican primary, and confirmed another recent trend. That trend, as has now happened twice, is a new candidate stealing the oxygen from last month's "flavor of the month" candidate. Michele Bachmann, make way for Texas Gov. Rick Perry:
GOP primary
Mitt Romney: 31
Rick Perry: 18
Michele Bachmann: 14
Ron Paul: 11
Herman Cain: 8
Newt Gingrich: 8
Jon Huntsman: 2
Tim Pawlenty: 1
Remember that Nevada was one of Romney's best states in his aborted 2008 run, so I don't think it's hyperbole to say that a 13-point lead is actually underwhelming for Romney. Aside from that, one has to think that if Jon Huntsman can't get out of the cellar here (being Mormon and from neighboring Utah), he oughta just bag it right now.
And we won't even get into T-Paw. When you'd have to increase your support by a factor of eight just to catch Newt Gingrich? "Screwed" doesn't even begin to cover it.