AZ-Sen: Not sure who listens to John McCain anymore, but he's endorsed Jeff Flake (shocker!) No news on who might run for the Democrats, though some apparently still hold out hope that Gabrielle Giffords will recover in time to make the race.
FL-Sen, FL-13: Superrich guy Vern Buchanan may or may not end up
shaking his employees down for campaign dollars making the U.S. Senate race against Bill Nelson, but he won't be hurried into any decisions, thank you very much; he's not expected to decide until the end of the year. People with $400 million can afford to take their sweet time, after all. If he makes the race, he's likely the underdog to Bill Nelson even with all his cash. His district nearly went Dem in 2006 (Buchanan won by less than 400 votes) but he's won comfortably since; of course, we don't know what it will look like in a year's time.
MA-Sen: This may or may not entice an ambitious Democrat or two into the race: John Kerry says he's running again, meaning no open seat in 2014, meaning that it's Scott Brown or nothing for the Democrats in the state looking to move up. (Well, there'll be an open Governor's race, but you get the point). It's still possible that Kerry will be appointed to the Cabinet in a second Obama term...but how safe is the bet on a Democratic President in 2013?
MI-Sen: This goes beyond "Some Dude" territory into "Apparently Famously Anti-Gay Some Dude" land. Gary Glenn of American Family Association of Michigan (now there's an anti-gay mouthful) intends to teabag Pete Hoekstra for the Republican nomination. The Michigan Log Cabin Republicans, however, have told him to get out.
IN-Gov: Apparently breaking his promise to never take a policy position, ever, if he can help it, Mike Pence has sortakinda come out of his slumber to say something; he supports "pro-growth tax relief" which is Republispeak for "I am breathing".
MO-Gov: Peter Kinder really can't do anything right. Not even Tweet.
VA-Gov: Long way to go until 2013, but PPP always has their toe in the water testing future races; unsurprisingly, they show LG Bill Bolling and AG Ken Cuccinelli narrowly leading former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe and former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, albeit with a boatload of undecideds, so do with this what you will.
AR-01: Talk Business offers their take on possible Democrats vying to take on GOP frosh Rick Crawford, who holds one of the most inviting seats in the whole South for Democrats. They name 2010 nominee Chad Causey, State Senator Robert Thompson, Craighead County Prosecuting Attorney Scott Ellington, businessman Steve Rockwell, and 2010 Land Commissioner nominee L.J. Bryant.
CA-15, CA-17 (we think): Despite rumors of retirement, septuagenarian Democrats Mike Honda and Pete Stark are going to seek reelection. As you were, gentlemen.
FL-02: I had no idea this had happened, but the Republicans in the Florida Legislature passed a "Charlie Crist Law" to prevent recent party-switchers from running for office. This would appear to spike the candidacy of former GOP State Sen. Nancy Argenziano, who intended to run as a Democrat against freshman tea guy Steve Southerland. The Florida Democratic Party appears to still want her, though, so we'll see if they fight the law in court, or just perhaps throw their support behind an independent run by Argenziano or something.
MN-03: Possible Some Dudette Sharon Sund will make the race against second-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen, who cruised in 2010 after a tough 2008 open-seat race against Democrat Ashwin Madia in this swingish suburban district.
OR-01: Apparently hoping that 2012 will be better than 2010—you know, without the Republican wave and the tiger-suit-clad, Klingon-referencing incumbent to run against—2010 Republican nominee Rob Cornilles will run in the special election to replace David Wu. Cornilles has the backing of the entire local Republican establishment, but he'll have a tough fight against a non-Wu Democrat in a regular year; to show how serious his challenge is, consider that Democrat Suzanne Bonamici raised $240,000 in just five days, an impressive total even if it is low-hanging fruit.
SC-07: State Rep. Thad Viers, a young Patrick McHenry lookalike with a host of boilerplate right-wing platitudes and not much else, is running for the new Pee Dee-based seat in South Carolina. If meaningless cliches win elections, then young Mr. Viers is twirling, twirling, twirling towards a bright future.
TX-14: Republican lawyer Michael Truncale, a conservative with "tea party values", whatever that means, is running to succeed retiring Rep. Ron Paul.
GA-Redist: No maps yet, but a fairly interesting article from Jim Galloway of the AJC, who has his ear to the scuttlebutt in Atlanta. Galloway confirms that Georgia's new district will be located in North Georgia, and numbered the 9th (the number 14 will go to Tom Price's district). He also confirms that John Barrow, the last white Democrat in the Deep South, is the top GOP target, but they're not certain they can eliminate him without forcing Jack Kingston to take on too much water. The other big GOP concern is the future of GA-07, where despite a big nominal advantage, changing demographics could doom GOP Rep. Rob Woodall by 2020. Finally, Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop, who survived a tough race in 2010, is likely to actually be shored up a bit by the GOP legislature, as is GOP frosh Austin Scott, who beat back Democratic veteran Rep. Jim Marshall in a district already solidly Republican to begin with.
NV-Redist: After repeated attempts to forge an agreement between the Democratic legislature and GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, the Nevada redistricting map—and a potential windfall as many as three Congressional seats for either party—is going to the courts. At least Democrats have a rack of candidates preparing to run, even if they don't know exactly where.
WI-Recall: MoveOn, DFA and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are up on the air with a substantial buy ($265,000) against Republican Sens. Alberta Darling and Luther Olsen. You can check out the Darling ad here: it's actually pretty good.
WV-Redist: I'm no longer sure what's going on; yesterday morning it looked as though the Democrats in the legislature had decided to go after GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in redistricting; now it looks as though they're going for minimal change in the Congressional map, which was the original idea.
DCCC: The boys and girls in blue are out with a target list for "Accountability August". Alliteration, yeah! The list is 44 names long at present.