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Senate:

AZ-Sen: Not sure who listens to John McCain anymore, but he's endorsed Jeff Flake (shocker!) No news on who might run for the Democrats, though some apparently still hold out hope that Gabrielle Giffords will recover in time to make the race.

FL-Sen, FL-13: Superrich guy Vern Buchanan may or may not end up shaking his employees down for campaign dollars making the U.S. Senate race against Bill Nelson, but he won't be hurried into any decisions, thank you very much; he's not expected to decide until the end of the year. People with $400 million can afford to take their sweet time, after all. If he makes the race, he's likely the underdog to Bill Nelson even with all his cash. His district nearly went Dem in 2006 (Buchanan won by less than 400 votes) but he's won comfortably since; of course, we don't know what it will look like in a year's time.

MA-Sen: This may or may not entice an ambitious Democrat or two into the race: John Kerry says he's running again, meaning no open seat in 2014, meaning that it's Scott Brown or nothing for the Democrats in the state looking to move up. (Well, there'll be an open Governor's race, but you get the point). It's still possible that Kerry will be appointed to the Cabinet in a second Obama term...but how safe is the bet on a Democratic President in 2013?

MI-Sen: This goes beyond "Some Dude" territory into "Apparently Famously Anti-Gay Some Dude" land. Gary Glenn of American Family Association of Michigan (now there's an anti-gay mouthful) intends to teabag Pete Hoekstra for the Republican nomination. The Michigan Log Cabin Republicans, however, have told him to get out.

Governor:

IN-Gov: Apparently breaking his promise to never take a policy position, ever, if he can help it, Mike Pence has sortakinda come out of his slumber to say something; he supports "pro-growth tax relief" which is Republispeak for "I am breathing".

MO-Gov: Peter Kinder really can't do anything right. Not even Tweet.

VA-Gov: Long way to go until 2013, but PPP always has their toe in the water testing future races; unsurprisingly, they show LG Bill Bolling and AG Ken Cuccinelli narrowly leading former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe and former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, albeit with a boatload of undecideds, so do with this what you will.

House:

AR-01: Talk Business offers their take on possible Democrats vying to take on GOP frosh Rick Crawford, who holds one of the most inviting seats in the whole South for Democrats. They name 2010 nominee Chad Causey, State Senator Robert Thompson, Craighead County Prosecuting Attorney Scott Ellington, businessman Steve Rockwell, and 2010 Land Commissioner nominee L.J. Bryant.

CA-15, CA-17 (we think): Despite rumors of retirement, septuagenarian Democrats Mike Honda and Pete Stark are going to seek reelection. As you were, gentlemen.

FL-02: I had no idea this had happened, but the Republicans in the Florida Legislature passed a "Charlie Crist Law" to prevent recent party-switchers from running for office. This would appear to spike the candidacy of former GOP State Sen. Nancy Argenziano, who intended to run as a Democrat against freshman tea guy Steve Southerland. The Florida Democratic Party appears to still want her, though, so we'll see if they fight the law in court, or just perhaps throw their support behind an independent run by Argenziano or something.

MN-03: Possible Some Dudette Sharon Sund will make the race against second-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen, who cruised in 2010 after a tough 2008 open-seat race against Democrat Ashwin Madia in this swingish suburban district.

OR-01: Apparently hoping that 2012 will be better than 2010—you know, without the Republican wave and the tiger-suit-clad, Klingon-referencing incumbent to run against—2010 Republican nominee Rob Cornilles will run in the special election to replace David Wu. Cornilles has the backing of the entire local Republican establishment, but he'll have a tough fight against a non-Wu Democrat in a regular year; to show how serious his challenge is, consider that Democrat Suzanne Bonamici raised $240,000 in just five days, an impressive total even if it is low-hanging fruit.

SC-07: State Rep. Thad Viers, a young Patrick McHenry lookalike with a host of boilerplate right-wing platitudes and not much else, is running for the new Pee Dee-based seat in South Carolina. If meaningless cliches win elections, then young Mr. Viers is twirling, twirling, twirling towards a bright future.

TX-14: Republican lawyer Michael Truncale, a conservative with "tea party values", whatever that means, is running to succeed retiring Rep. Ron Paul.

Redistricting:

GA-Redist: No maps yet, but a fairly interesting article from Jim Galloway of the AJC, who has his ear to the scuttlebutt in Atlanta. Galloway confirms that Georgia's new district will be located in North Georgia, and numbered the 9th (the number 14 will go to Tom Price's district). He also confirms that John Barrow, the last white Democrat in the Deep South, is the top GOP target, but they're not certain they can eliminate him without forcing Jack Kingston to take on too much water. The other big GOP concern is the future of GA-07, where despite a big nominal advantage, changing demographics could doom GOP Rep. Rob Woodall by 2020. Finally, Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop, who survived a tough race in 2010, is likely to actually be shored up a bit by the GOP legislature, as is GOP frosh Austin Scott, who beat back Democratic veteran Rep. Jim Marshall in a district already solidly Republican to begin with.

NV-Redist: After repeated attempts to forge an agreement between the Democratic legislature and GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, the Nevada redistricting map—and a potential windfall as many as three Congressional seats for either party—is going to the courts. At least Democrats have a rack of candidates preparing to run, even if they don't know exactly where.

WI-Recall: MoveOn, DFA and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are up on the air with a substantial buy ($265,000) against Republican Sens. Alberta Darling and Luther Olsen. You can check out the Darling ad here: it's actually pretty good.

WV-Redist: I'm no longer sure what's going on; yesterday morning it looked as though the Democrats in the legislature had decided to go after GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in redistricting; now it looks as though they're going for minimal change in the Congressional map, which was the original idea.

Committees

DCCC: The boys and girls in blue are out with a target list for "Accountability August". Alliteration, yeah! The list is 44 names long at present.

Originally posted to Arjun Jaikumar on Thu Aug 04, 2011 at 07:46 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Elections and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WOW! Already? (8+ / 0-)

    You're not wasting any time here. And btw, we're already hearing from DCCC now about targeting Joe Heck (NV-03 now, who knows where later).

  •  Anti-Crist law (12+ / 0-)

    The Constitution may have something to say about that, no? Obviously Republican judges are something else entirely.

  •  Florida. (13+ / 0-)

    That is WAY over the line. It is simply not ok with me, and I am not just saying that because it is targeting us. This is just undemocratic.

    I do not oppose sour loser laws, so you can't run third party after losing the nomination, but if you want to switch parties and run for office that is perfectly ok. People change views all the time. We shouldn't punish them because of it.

    I do not think the FL GOP has any shame. They are constantly changing the law to help them electorally. It is just not right, an abuse of power. Oh how I wish Sink would have won last year.

    My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 04:55:24 AM PDT

  •  How to take over teh democratic party as progressi (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Odysseus

    se.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Become a precinct committeeman.

    "Proud member of the Socialist Party USA so I do not have to eat Satan sandwiches or wraps."

    by hangingchad on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 05:47:12 AM PDT

  •  On SC-07 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shoeless

    Every day I think the movie Being There becomes more and more accurate, frightfully so, and it's something that internet and mass media have accelerated. The lines of dialogue for both parties are so simple and predictable; public political discussion, and apparently much of the private political debate of Republicans, has degraded to the level of flinging generalized soundbites around like chimps tossing their own shit.

    "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 05:54:31 AM PDT

  •  What does this mean? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus
    MN-03: Possible Some Dudette Sharon Sund will make the race against second-term GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen

    (emphasis mine)

    Sharon Sund is, indeed, a candidate for Congress in Minnesota's third:  http://www.sharonsund.com/.... She may be off to a slow start, though I'm not even sure of that. The election is a long way off.  But "some dudette"? Have I missed something along the way? Or is this just plain disrespectful?

    If we don't fight hard enough for the things we stand for, at some point we have to recognize that we don't really stand for them. Paul Wellstone

    by Alice Olson on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 05:59:58 AM PDT

    •  it is a modification of "Some Dude" (9+ / 0-)

      Which is a term used to describe a candidate that has never held political office before, nor has any built-in electoral advantage, such as enormous wealth, a relative that was a politician, or a celebrity with name recognition. it is not a sign of disrespect at all.

      •  Thanks. I think the fact that Sharon Sund (0+ / 0-)

        is a Black woman might well be a "built-in electoral advantage."  As might the fact that she has never held political office.  Those that have aren't doing so well in the favorability polls these days -- nor in my own.

        If we don't fight hard enough for the things we stand for, at some point we have to recognize that we don't really stand for them. Paul Wellstone

        by Alice Olson on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:56:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not to sound arrogant (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, Odysseus, MichaelNY

          But I do consider myself to be one of the foremost experts on the DFL here. I think we should contest the 3rd, obviously. But I also feel as though we should not throw a lot of money at it. Our chances to take this seat were in 2008. And now, unfortunately, Paulsen has a seat for as long as he wants it. It is a very ancestrally Republican area, one that hasn't elected a DFLer since the 1950s, and the district was much different than it is today. Obviously redistricting will play a big roll, but Paulsen is an ambitious fast-rising politician that won't be losing an incredibly affluent district any time soon. However, I have the keen feeling that he wants something more, and I would pit him at 50/50 if he.takes on either Dayton or Franken in '14

        •  why exactly do you think that? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, MichaelNY, jncca

          MN-03 doesn't have a large black population that would be encouraged by the idea of putting a black congresscritter in office. I'm curious as to why you think her race helps her here.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:33:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It is a very white district (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, Odysseus, MichaelNY, jncca

            If you take out Brooklyn Center and Brooklyn Park, it becomes something like 97% white. A minority candidate carried the DFL banner in 08 and got destroyed in spite of the blue wave. Now, I don't think Mr. Madia's race had anything to do with his loss, but it certainly didn't aid him electorally either.

            •  Yeah, Madia needed to be 10 years older (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              As to the larger point of AA's in MN-3, I'd say only in 2012 could it be seen as a positive with Obama at the top of the ticket.  Although, Obama could certainly lose MN-3 this time around and that won't help Sund at all.  She does have a great profile for the district, but Erik Paulsen has the same profile, is the incumbent, and look at his freaking name, it is so Scandinavian it hurts.  (I just recently saw that there are four Andersons in the state house.)

              Maybe the court will make MN-3 a +12% Obama district?  :)

              •  yea (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Scandinavians do have a little sway in Minnesota. Anderson, Erickson, Torkelson, Holberg, Hansen, Benson, Nelson, Peterson, Johnson, Carlson, Saxhaug, Bakk, Pederson, Magnus, Olsen, and Berglin. And that list is only names I am 100% certain are Scandinavian. There are others that could be.

                As far as MN-3, it is possible to make it strongly DFL, but a court isn't going to do that.

    •  "Some Dude" = No political resume. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285, dc1000, MichaelNY
      Last year, I was an alternate delegate for the DFL.

      That's the sum total of listed political experience.  No elected office at any level, County, State, or Federal.

      Would you prefer "party hack"?  "liberal activist"?

      Get her to write diaries.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:37:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the dictionary work (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, Odysseus, MichaelNY

        It's not a phrase with which I was familiar, and I'm happy to know its meaning.  I don't know the woman, but I'm thinkin' someone without major party credentials who is well-educated and has a professional background in alternative energy might be a way better choice than someone who's been suckin' up for a Congressional nomination for years (or decades).  I'm not so infatuated with what we've got going for us right now in Congress.  I'm ready for a change.

        If we don't fight hard enough for the things we stand for, at some point we have to recognize that we don't really stand for them. Paul Wellstone

        by Alice Olson on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:53:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  you should take a look around (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, atdnext

          This is the DK Elections subsite. We were originally our own website called Swing State Project. We focus on electoral issues and politics. We are a different breed of political junkie here that you will find in any other place on the site, as a good portion of us don't frequent other parts of Kos. A solid chunk of us have been paid campaign staffers and strategists working the politics side of the political world, as opposed to the policy side. If you hit up elections.dailykos.com it will brig you to our main site and check out the mission statement and the dictionary (for terms such as Some Dude"). David Nir is the Daily Kos Poltical Director and also the founder of SSP, I think you may enjoy some of his works.

          •  The DKE glossary (5+ / 0-)

            I'm pretty sure it points out that Some Dudes/Dudettes win primaries and elections all the time.  Of course, was Ann Kuster--the daughter of two elected officials--a Some Dudette?  Was Paul Wellstone a Some Dude when he ran for Senate, or no, because he had been the candidate for state auditor?  The term has many subtleties.  Tom Perriello?  Isn't the slogan of Yale Law "never be Some Dude again"?

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:14:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Silly boys (7+ / 0-)
    The Michigan Log Cabin Republicans, however, have told him to get out.

    Why do the Log Cabin Republicans waste their breath? Everyone else in the Republican Party despises them (especially the closeted gay homophobe Republicans). Do they really think a teabagger is going to listen to them?

    "If pro is the opposite of con, what is the opposite of Congress?" — Will Rogers

    by shoeless on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:12:26 AM PDT

  •  great comment (4+ / 0-)

    re rikiperi at TPM:

    "Read my lips: NO NEW TEXANS! "

    Addington's perpwalk is the trailhead of accountability for this wound to our national psyche.

    by greenbird on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:13:12 AM PDT

  •  Argenziano's party switch (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The Herald article (as well as the Tallahassee Democrat) says she switched the the "Independent Party," which could be several minor parties registered in Florida. I would have assumed she just changed to "no party affiliation." Did she really think she could run through a third party?

    Democrat, FL-02 (home), VT-AL (college)

    by Tallahasset on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:25:15 AM PDT

  •  NC-04 Watch (8+ / 0-)

    Based on his recent email to supporters titled "I Want To Stay in the Fight," it looks like Brad Miller's doing just that in the wake of being bunked with David Price:

    I want to be candid with my friends, as I have been on the telephone all year: it will be months before we know what districts will be in effect for the 2012 elections, and I need to be ready for anything.

    I’ve long thought that the Republicans in the legislature would create one packed Democratic district in the Triangle, so that everything around it would be Republican. They actually went further than I thought they would. They’ve created a district that includes parts of Wake County, along with parts of Durham and Orange Counties. The district also includes the very part of Alamance County (Burlington) that I now represent, and a large chunk of Fayetteville, my home town.

    I now represent 31 percent of the new district, and my friend and ally David Price represents 33.3 percent. Almost all of the rest is in Cumberland County (Fayetteville), and Southeast Raleigh.

    In all, 43 percent of the proposed district’s population is in Wake County,  19.4 percent is in Cumberland County, 25 percent is in Orange and Durham Counties, and 5.7 percent is in Alamance County.

    The map of the district looks pretty much like hell. In fact, it’s comically gerrymandered. But the district includes communities to which I have deep personal and political ties.

    All of the Democrats from North Carolina are standing shoulder-to-shoulder to challenge the new districts in court on all the grounds available to us.

    But I want you to know that I want to continue to serve in Congress. I feel no sense of entitlement to a seat in Congress, but I don’t want to walk away from the fight I’m in.

    “The fight he’s in,” the Independent Weekly wrote a couple of weeks ago, “is about the nation’s increasing income inequality, the growing gap between executive incomes and worker’s wages—for those working at all—and the failures of the economic system since the ‘70s to share prosperity with the middle-class and working-class families.”

    Ends with a fundraising ask.
    •  Anyone have any word from (3+ / 0-)

      David Price?

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 06:38:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also (8+ / 0-)

      I don't mean to pile on Brad Miller, but complaints about "comically gerrymandered" districts sound a little odd from the guy who drew his own gerrymandered district.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:06:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think that's actually a very good statement (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But as Xenocrypt indicates, it leaves off some important information: what happens with Price?

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:20:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Price says he plans to run (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, MichaelNY

        His fundraising hasn't been as strong as Miller's, FWIW.  I don't know how this ends, but it's interesting: had this district not been given the title of "NC-4", but rather "NC-13" or "NC-Whatever," would there be a presumption that this was Price's right of first refusal or whatever?

        •  I don't make a presumption either way (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, MichaelNY

          Certainly not one based on the district number.

          But they've been paired. So someone has to lose (or run somewhere else).

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:27:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

            •  Two scenarios possible I think. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, atdnext

              1. Price takes one for the team and calls it quit early and Miller gets his CD.

              2. Miller takes one for the team, either retires or runs in another CD or for statewide office and then takes Price's CD when he does retire, which will probably not be very long anyway.

              My political philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIX0ZDqDljA

              by drhoosierdem on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:59:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  bitter choices (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Odysseus, atdnext

              They are both valued members of Congress, and it is painful to think of losing either. It is also a little difficult to see a way forward to higher office for either one, in any near-term scenario.

              A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

              by Christopher Walker on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:59:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The future (6+ / 0-)

                There's no question that Brad Miller has the brighter political prospects than David Price insofar as pursuing higher office. For one, David Price is 70 years old; Brad Miller is 58 years old. Miller has a more moderate image than Price, who is thought of as ultraliberal.

                To be sure, I like them both, and they've both been my congressmen at one time or other, but if the deciding issue is who has the stronger chance in a statewide scenario, there's no doubt that's Brad Miller.

                I might also add that Price managed to lose the old 4th in the 1994 wave (he regained it two years later with 54% of the vote). Price lost the old 4th because he took it for granted, and has not had to make much effort since regaining it because of the addition of Durham (which had been placed in the 12th District that was overturned by Shaw v. Reno).

                Miller has actually had to put some effort into holding the 13th, which was not considered a slam-dunk when it was drawn. The Raleigh part of the district has definitely shifted toward Democrats, which makes this look like a stronger Dem district than what was envisioned at the time.

        •  Price has more seniority (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And, even though the actual population numbers are about equal, it sort of looks (thanks to uneven population density, I suppose) a bit more like the successor to Price's district than Miller's.  It's the Triangle district, and I know I've always thought of Price as the Congressman from the Triangle.  Some combination of those things might be on the minds of some of those with the presumption you refer to.

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 09:54:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Price (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, atdnext

            Will have zero seniority after he retires, which is far more likely than Miller to be sooner rather than later since he's 70 years old.

            In any case, Price is on one committee, the Appropriations Committee (granted, a big one), where he is 10th in seniority for Democrats.

            Brad Miller is on two committees: The Financial Services Committee, where he's 16th in D seniority; and the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, where he'll be 4th in D seniority (after Woolsey & Wu leave).

            Price is ranking member on the Subcommittee on Homeland Security; Miller is ranking member on the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.

            •  Didn't say I agreed (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I also don't know enough House Clout Arithmetic to compare 10th on Appropriations to 16th on Financial Services+4th on Science.  I was just trying to figure out why some people might think of it as "Price's district" beyond the number, if they do.

              Related question: Appropriations is an "A" committee, so I believe Price would need a waiver from...is it the Republican leadership?  His own party leadership?  To be on another committee.  Did he used to be on another one?  I think Lee used to be on Appropriations and Foreign Relations when the D's ran the House but I can't remember if Price was.  If it is the Republicans' decision, they might be disinclined to grant waivers to Democrats, or maybe to anyone.  Who knows how they run things? (I still can't believe when I saw that article about how the Republicans had to try to persuade people to be on Appropriations, since, you know, it's a spending job, and they don't like spending.  What a crew.)

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 10:28:17 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY, Adam B, sawolf

                You're definitely right that Price is considered the "Triangle" representative, but this is no longer the "Triangle" district. Durham is primarily in the 1st, Wake County now has far more people in the 13th (458,433) than in the 4th (315,307), and Fayetteville has more claim on the 4th than does Chapel Hill (142,549 vs. 112,883).

                For that matter, slightly more of Price's constituents are going to the 13th than staying in the 4th, so if he wants to keep representing his constituents perhaps that's where he should run. lol

                Look, I hate to be going after Price, but if there's going to be an internecine battle then one has to pick sides, however unpleasant it may be, and all I'm saying is that Price has no more claim on the 4th than does Miller in my view. And, if I personally am forced to pick between them, there's no doubt that I would vote for Miller.

                Granted, I live in the 11th now, so I get to vote for Shuler anyhow. yay..

                Well, technically I live in both the 10th and the 11th, since the line actually cuts through my property.

                •  I think (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Equal population means equal claim.  I wonder what some of the worst redistricting-fuelled primaries have been, in terms of forced fights between well-regarded Representatives?  Without knowing too much, I would guess Lynn Rivers/John Dingell would be on that list.  Anyone have any others?

                  25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 10:54:31 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Hopefully there won't be a primary (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, jncca

                  I'm hoping that Price simply retires, but if there does end up being a primary I'll change my registration to Chapel Hill so I can vote for Miller in the primary.  They both have strongly liberal voting records, but Miller has been very proactive on financial policy.

            •  Appropriations is gold (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              All other things being equal, I'd support the member on Appropriations. Of course, all things are not equal.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 10:46:06 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  That's what he says now... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen, jncca

          But is David Price actively campaigning? Does he have a full campaign team? How often is he fundraising?

          Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm increasingly getting the sense Price is "phoning it in". That's why I've been thinking he may retire so Brad Miller can run in that district.

  •  Campaign reform: A Republican has a good idea (6+ / 0-)

    Rep. Rob Woodall (R-GA-07) has introduced legislation to requires campaign money to be spent in the election for which it is raised.  In other words, no war chests.

  •  Wisc. recall: from polls and momentum I'm more (11+ / 0-)

    optimistic now nthen previously. A few weeks ago I thought two state senate gains were probable, now i think three to five is not all that unlikely.

    •  i want to see all 6 races (6+ / 0-)

      That are happening on Tuesday, that will likely be polled over the weekend. We saw the latest batch of PPP polls, and the iMIp take a crack at two of them and the "leaked" internals that said we are ahead in 3 and tied in 3, but we haven't seen polling on all of the races at once. PPP has had their thumb on the pulse of these races pretty well, and I am anxiously awaiting for the polling results to be posted on Monday. There could have been significant movement in either direction in the last couple weeks with all of the advertising dollars being pumped in left and right. I M right now cautiously optimistic, but a net gain of 5 like you mentioned is quite the feat.

      •  I really wish IMP/PPC had polled some of the (6+ / 0-)

        other recalls. However, the enthusiasm is on the democrats side and what the polls are showing is that these recalls will have a much higher turnout than normal special elections. Possibly that of a midterm election

        •  Turnout is important (5+ / 0-)

          It shows enthusiasm and engagement. However, if polling shows us losing 52-48, it doesn't matter how many people vote if more people vote for the Republican candidate. I would rather win a race 3500-3340, than lose one 25000-24990. I am anxious to see these polls

          •  I also wonder if Republicans hurt themselves (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dc1000, newdem1960, TofG, MichaelNY, pademocrat

            with their behavior on the debt ceiling. Certainly the latest CBS-NYT poll seems to indicate they got the worse end of the stick in terms of public opinion.

            I too am cautiously optimistic - even to the point of thinking we could take five or all six. But I'm wary of making a prediction because I was one of those idiots who thought Kloppenburg would win (even worse, I thought she'd win easily). I think we're in obviously better shape in these races but I don't want to get my hopes up too high.

            (and I should add I don't believe Republicans stole the Supreme Court race. I think they had an incompetent as county clerk in Waukesha, but I think the Dem party in Wisconsin would have called it if they really thought there were shenanigans).

            •  I'm just concerned with the fact that Waukesha (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TofG, MichaelNY

              is in Darling's district. However, if Kathy still has her job as county clerk, i would hope her superiors have laid down the law with her. Hopefully if the vote totals show Sandy Pasch has won, it will mean she has won.

          •  Polling numbers aren't all (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, lordpet8, James Allen, jncca

            I remember in 1986 when Wyche Fowler ran for the Senate from Georgia. The last pre-election polls showed him losing by 4, but he won, anyway, because it was an election where the Democrats were enthusiastic and turned out. Elections that poll as close losses can often be won in such situations.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 11:31:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  25 years ago (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              I have a distinct ffeeling polling wasn't quite as sophisticated as it is today. And polls aren't the be all end all, but I feel they are better indicators than wondering if turnout will be 12% or 15%. Don't get me wrong, GOTV is very important, but it can be a doubled edged sword that cancels eachother out

  •  AZ Senate: This is all you need to know (4+ / 0-)

    Remember, you can't have crazy without az.

    by Desert Rose on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 07:35:59 AM PDT

  •  The DCCC is still going (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, atdnext, Nickers

    after Mary Bono Mack. Do they have someone new waiting in the wings?

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 08:00:27 AM PDT

  •  WV Redistricting (7+ / 0-)

    I've been commenting on this saga at RRH, so I think it might be of interest for me to basically summarize those comments here.

    John Unger, the chair of the WV redistricting committee who is also the senate majority leader, was the one who proposed the more compact map that was soundly rejected by the legislature in favor of the least-change map that emerged from committee.

    I immediately began wondering two things:

    1) How could John Unger not have know that his proposal would meet stiff resistance in the legislature? Does he not confer with his own caucus?

    2) If they were going to split counties, why not draw a stronger Democratic map, which is certainly doable? Even if they want to minimize splits to two counties they can still draw a stronger map, so why not do it?

    What immediately drew my attention with the least-change map that emerged from committee is the relatively high population range of 4871 from the highest to the lowest district population. This is a .79% population spread. While this may not sound like much at all, it more than doubles the highest population range that the courts have permitted for a congressional map over the past two decades, which was .35% for the late 1990s Georgia map. By comparison, the 2001 WV map had  a .22% population spread (1313 people) and the recently passed Iowa map (now the only other 'whole-counties' state) has a range of 76 people.

    Then, as I looked into the legal background of West Virginia's last redistricting, I found that the state senate maps were challenged on 'one-person, one-vote' grounds by none other than John Unger. The case was Unger v. Manchin  when it reached the Supreme Court (Manchin was WV SoS at the time). It failed, but it's also well-established that legislatures have far more leeway to deviate in population for legislative redistricting than for congressional redistricting.

    Even before I tracked this down, I noticed that Unger came out of the redistricting committee talking lawsuits right off the bat:

    After the meeting, Unger said he believes the plan to switch Mason County would face court challenges. In it, district populations would range from 615,991 in the 1st District to 620,862 in the 2nd District, which he says violates the concept of "one person, one vote."

    The 2nd District's layout also fails the state constitution's requirement that districts be compact, he said.

    Of course, people invariably talk lawsuits, so I didn't think overly much of this until I found out that Unger himself was party to the 2001 1P1V challenge against the state senate map.

    Well, it also turns out that the 2001 challenge was rejected by the courts expressly because all the alternatives that had been offered in the legislature as having a lower population deviation were less compact than the map which was enacted and upheld.

    So, to me, it now all made sense. I think John Unger must've known that his map would be dismissed by his colleagues. However, it is a far more compact map than the 2001 map which would be virtually unchanged in the map that emerged from committee.

    In short, I think Unger's purpose all along must've been to set up at 1P1V challenge to the whole-counties map that was passed. That's the best explanation in my view for why he would've first proposed a map that wouldn't pass and why that map emphasized compactness over maximizing partisan advantage.

    It's ultimately just my speculation. But I'm throwing it out there for those who are trying to figure this all out.

    •  That actually makes a lot of sense (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      Obviously Unger would know why his own suit lost and would want to avoid making the same mistake again.  My only question is: what happens if his suit is successful?  Who draws the map?  And what's Unger's interest that his colleagues don't share?

      (I guess that's a few questions.)

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 10:45:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Aye, good point. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Still, I'm disappointed by WV Dems.  At least WV-01 is still within reach as it always was.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 03:14:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Redistricting (4+ / 0-)

    A fight is brewing over the Atlanta neighborhood of Buckhead.  While most of Atlanta is very Democratic (including most of the white parts), Buckhead is very white, affluent, and Republican.  There has been talk of leaving in the Democratic 5th with the rest of Atlanta, but some want a Republican representative, which would likely be Tom Price.

    •  But how could they do it? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      How could Price's district bypass the more Dem areas of Fulton and DeKalb Counties to take in Buckhead? And how could it be done in a way that doesn't endanger another Georgia GOPer?

      •  The first one is easy (0+ / 0-)

        Aside from Buckhead, GA-05 also has a large chunk of Sandy Springs and more of NE Atlanta, all of which are white and Republican.  For Price to take on Buckhead, he'd simply have to take on the parts of Sandy Springs he doesn't already represent and then go down into Buckhead.  While there are some pockets of Democrats there, it won't be anywhere near enough to hurt Price in anyway.

        The second part is harder, and I'm not sure how it would work out.  IF Buckhead and Sandy Springs are taken out of GA-05, which already needs to expand, it would have to expand even further.  This could be more into DeKalb County.  As a result, GA-04 has to take on more of Democratic areas in Gwinnett or the SE Metro Atlanta area.  If GA-04 expands Gwinnett, GA-07 will have to expand to make up for the loss.  It could then take up some of the area that Price's district (GA-06) will have to give up, which would thus shore up GA-07 somewhat.

        •  So can it be done in a way... (0+ / 0-)

          That doesn't endanger another Georgia GOPer? And we haven't even talked about the new GA-14 yet! It seems like gerrymandering Buckhead into a GOP district might just be too tall of an order for Georgia legislators. And as the article you linked to states, it seems like other Georgia Republicans like being able to go into the "open territory" of North Atlanta for all their fundraising needs.

          •  I don't see how it could hurt them. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701

            Like I said, it would remove Republican areas from a Democratic district, resulting in a chain reaction where other Democratic districts take on Democratic areas.  This results in Democratic areas being taken out of the most vulnerable of the Republican districts, which can then exchange them for Republican areas.

  •  CA-15 Fortney "Pete" Stark (4+ / 0-)

    He is the only declared atheist in Congress. Ever.

    "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."- Arthur Carlson

    by bobinson on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 09:15:12 AM PDT

  •  AZ Redistricting: 'burbs have it? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, atdnext, MichaelNY

    http://www.azcentral.com/...

    Looks like common wisdom is that Trent Franks' 2nd might shave a lot of space, and possibly be incorporated with Pinal County to make the new 9th- which may be good for Grijalva, as he'll lose the conservative 'burbs of the West Valley.

    "Look at this; I'm a coward too; You don't need to hide, my friend; For I'm just like you" - Monster/Sprite (Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites - Skrillex)

    by AZ Independent on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 09:56:17 AM PDT

    •  good read (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY, AZ Independent

      "Another possible map, for example, could connect part of the West Valley in the 2nd District with part of the 6th District and pull in much of Pinal County. Those two districts are separated by a sliver of the 7th District, which needs to drop nearly 146,000 residents to reach the 710,000 threshold."

      I did this in one of the AZ maps I drew on Dave's app. The new 9th was compact (if not easy to drive from the east valley to the west valley) and consisted almost entirely of areas that were nearly empty in 2000.

      The article didn't mention it, but Grijalva's district should also drop La Paz county. It has far more in common with Mohave and/or Yavapai (lots of retirees) than it does with Yuma, let alone the rest of Grijalva's district.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 11:00:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Grijalva's district was hard to tackle (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for me when I was trying to draw anything other than a Democratic map, because maintaining Hispanic VAP is difficult given where some of those communities are.  It'll be interesting to see how they do it.

        "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 11:25:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  AZ (0+ / 0-)

          I never had much trouble with the Tucson districts. I just had Giffords cede most of the area west of I-10 to Grijalva, and pulled Grijalva out of La Paz and the Phoenix exurbs while keeping much of rural Pinal. It worked out pretty well. Grijalva's Hispanic VAP might have gone down a point or so, but not enough to cause a problem.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 01:03:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well, that would change if they finished the 202 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The freeway 20 years in the making - and not a damn piece of pavement laid on the west side.

        "Look at this; I'm a coward too; You don't need to hide, my friend; For I'm just like you" - Monster/Sprite (Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites - Skrillex)

        by AZ Independent on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 11:36:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  you can tell I'm unemployed. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    Photobucket

    What the hell is that hideous thing?  My attempt to draw an aggressive Democratic map of Oregon's state house.  I spent much of yesterday drawing it.  The main reason the shapes are so weird is that (1) I drew the senate districts first, and 2 house districts must comprise each senate district, so I had to split each senate district equally.  In some cases I did well, but in a couple there was only one census block that could be the border between house districts, which made the deviance a bit more than I wanted.  Obviously a real redistricting mapper for the state could draw a finer line with less deviance in that case.  The other reason for odd shapes (2) is that I conformed much more to county lines and pretty faithfully to city lines as compared to the current map.  I could have done even better on county lines, but ended up with a district that spanned the Willamette river, joining portions of the east and west sides of Portland, which I wasn't happy with.  Downstate Republicans may not understand that Portland is comprised of different communities, but I think the west and east are too different to be in the same district.

    I'll diary my map later.  Very much a 'what could have been' map.

    "every time we start a pie fight a wingnut gets his wings"- MinistryofTruth -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 10:58:44 AM PDT

  •  What does the italicized phrase mean? (0+ / 0-)
    Despite rumors of retirement, septuagenarian Democrats Mike Honda and Pete Stark are going to seek reelection. As you were, gentlemen.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 11:13:06 AM PDT

    •  Considering that the Shepard Express (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      is a liberal paper, that does not surprise me.  However, if the Journal Sentinel endorses her, which I do not believe they will, that would be a real shocker as they endorsed Darling in 08.  

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:08:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Recall: Dem Uncertainty (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, TofG, DCCyclone, itskevin

    From Greg Sargent: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    This Dem pollster, Mark Mellman, is unsure about the outcome because there is little precedent for these types of races in terms of turnout, although I would say turnout is on the Dems' side.

    Here is what really caught my attention:

    "Mellman said that three of the key races — though he wouldn’t specify which — are so close that if turnout doesn’t break the Dems’ way, it could throw them to Republicans. He described them as “all very close races that could go either way.”

    I would gander that list includes Olsen and Darling, but no idea who the third would be.  Hopefully it is not Hopper, as that would mean some real slippage on King's part. However, a best case scenario is that those races are Darling, Harsdorf, and Cowles, as that would mean the three other races have firmed for the Dems.  

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home)

    by glame on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 12:05:04 PM PDT

  •  WI Recalls: Cowles v. Nusbaum (3+ / 0-)

    Nusbaum on the offensive charging Cowles with morphing from a moderate Republican into a Walker rubber stamp effectively. Nancy's brilliant strategy is attempting to turn Cowles 24 years of public service against him by claiming he is no longer the same moderate Cowles the Senate district voters has been reelecting for over two decades now.  In otherwords, he has gone over to the dark side in failing to stand up to Scott Walker and his power grab

    Go Nancy Go!

    Link to article: http://www.jsonline.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 01:15:18 PM PDT

  •  WI Recalls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, itskevin

    Greater Wisconsin Committee hits Kim Simac on not paying her taxes on time/not at all and allowing her children books leaning heavily on tea party themes to be published in....China.

    President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

    by ehstronghold on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 01:53:30 PM PDT

  •  Alison Lundergan Grimes (4+ / 0-)

    sponsored an annual labor luncheon that is usually sponsored by the sitting Democrat Governor. Governor Besher is in the middle east so Grimes offered to keep it going.

    Grimes also said there is no feud between her and the Governor.

    http://mycn2.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 02:07:51 PM PDT

  •  MI-Gov: State of the State Survey (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    According to the MSU's State of the State Survey, Governor Snyder's approval rating continues to drop:

    EAST LANSING, Mich. — The mood of Michigan residents has soured somewhat, according to Michigan State University’s latest State of the State Survey.

    Gov. Rick Snyder’s approval rating fell to 31.5 percent in the spring/summer survey, which was completed in July. This compares with a 44.5 percent favorable rating in the previous survey, taken in March.

    “Gov. Snyder succeeded in getting most of his priorities through the Legislature, but that has not translated into strong public approval,” said Charles Ballard, director of the quarterly survey and economics professor at MSU. “Snyder’s budget provided a tax cut for businesses, but it also involved tax increases for retirees, as well as substantial spending reductions. Moreover, the economy appears to have hit a flat spot.”

    Ballard said Michigan’s unemployment rate decreased for 15 consecutive months at the end of Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s tenure, and continued to fall during the first four months of the Snyder administration. But unemployment has now crept back up for two months in a row.

    The State of the State Survey is conducted by Michigan State University's Institute of Public Policy and Social Research.  It's a mood poll that has been conducted since 1994.  It's a telephone survey of 947 residents with a margin of error of 3.2%.  Not sure how the residents are chosen, but the poll is at least with itself consistent given its frequency.

  •  When is Fancy Farm in KY? (0+ / 0-)

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 03:18:22 PM PDT

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