I am a relative newcomer to Wisconsin and Senate District 8. I moved here last summer from the Chicago area where I was very involved with DFA canvassing door to door for not only Obama but several congressional candidates and other local candidates. I knew that I would get involved politically here as well, but I had no idea it would entail being in the epicenter of a grassroots movement that was fighting back against the dismantlement of the middle class. And now it looks like my state senate district may even become ground zero in this recall election. Most of us have seen the polls in this district ranging from a 1 point Pasch lead to a 5 point Darling lead. It's close, mighty close and GOTV for both sides is critical. To see how close, let's look at some of the numbers.
First, let's look at the last state senate election in this district (2008):
Darling |
Wasserman |
Total |
50,125 |
49,118 |
99,328 |
Here is the turnout by county for the 8th district in 2008:
County |
Total |
Milwaukee |
49,097 |
Ozaukee |
16,241 |
Washington |
15,042 |
Waukesha |
18,938 |
Finally, here is the percentage breakdown for each candidate by county in 2008:
County |
Darling |
Wasserman |
Percent |
Milwaukee |
17,704 |
31,336 |
36/64 |
Ozaukee |
10,055 |
6,176 |
62/38 |
Washington |
10,312 |
4,734 |
68/32 |
Waukesha |
12,054 |
6,871 |
64/36 |
So, the turnout in 2008 was very close to 100,000 making it easier to use this as a baseline (100%). The turnout for primary last month was just over 33,000 or about a third of the 2008 turnout. So, we can be pretty certain that the turnout tomorrow will be well above the 33,000 but also well below the nearly 100,000 during the presidential election year of 2008. Of course, there is one other recent election that happened in this district and that is the state Supreme Court race back in April. This may give us a better idea on what turnout may look like tomorrow. There is no breakdown by senate district for the supreme court race that I could find, but from what I could gather from the official results, the turnout in senate district 8 was a little over 59,000. It's my guess that we should see somewhere between 55 and 60 thousand people voting tomorrow in SD-8.
Let's say the turnout is right around 60 thousand and the percentage breakdowns in each county remain the same. The only thing that changes is that Milwaukee county turns out 62% of its 2008 turnout total while the other counties turn out at 58% of its 2008 turnout total. Here is what it would look like:
County |
Darling |
Pasch |
Turnout |
Milwaukee |
10,946 |
19,459 |
62% |
Ozaukee |
5,837 |
3,577 |
58% |
Washington |
5,978 |
2,749 |
58% |
Waukesha |
6,981 |
3,996 |
58% |
Totals |
29,742 |
29,781 |
59.5% |
This is just one scenario, but it does show how important it is to get the vote out and how little it needs to be increased in a district like this to change the outcome. I'll be out there tomorrow and I hope as many of you that can do it, get out there tomorrow as well and bring this victory home!