Gallup's generic congressional ballot 2006-11
"if the election were held today" something would be very wrong, because it's only summer of 2011. Still, the net effect of America's exposure to tea party politics is a continued lead for democrats in the generic congressional ballot, something that Gallup notes today [registered voters, MoE +/-4] and PPP noted last week (Dems lead 47-40.) This time, Gallup notes:
The seven-percentage-point edge for Democratic congressional candidates, nationally, contrasts with ties or Republican leads in most Gallup polls leading up to the 2010 midterm elections. However, the Democratic advantage is not as large as those they enjoyed in the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles -- each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress. The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections, with individual polls showing them ahead by as much as 23 points.
So, it's early and it's a small lead... but a lead it is.
As for the continuing tea party implosion:
Among registered voters, most Republicans say a Tea Party endorsement would either make them more likely to vote for a candidate (44%) or make no difference (42%), while most Democrats say it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (66%). Independents' reactions are similar to the national average, with 25% more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the Tea Party and 38% less likely.
Gallup on tea party endorsement, Aug 2011
Then again we know Americans do not like the tea party, and an endorsement is not a slam dunk even for Republicans. In fact, right now, Americans don't much like any politicians, so take it all in context. Given that they hate everyone, Dems are doing okay for the moment, but the numbers show how much work is ahead of us before the elections.