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Widespread job creation deserves a comprehensive examination. In no way do I have the resources and the tool kit to do the topic justice, but I feel compelled to try. A jobs plan needs to match the scale of the solution with the scale of the problem at the outset, or it risks not having the required depth or breadth with which to solve the problem. The US Congress passed a stimulus bill, which did indeed drive GDP growth above 5% for one quarter, suggesting that enough money was spent in a particular time frame, but GDP has since declined obviously suggesting that the spending level was not maintained for a long enough period.

Defining the scale of the problem

During the Great Depression US stimulus spending started to ramp up in 1933 with the formation of the Civilian Conservation Corp with the initial enrollment of 250,000 Americans. Stimulus continued thru 1941, with an interruption in 1938, for approximately a total of 7+ years.

From 2009 to 2011 unemployment in the US has reached heights unheard of since the Depression when unemployment reached 25%. Recently the U6 unemployment metric reached over 17%. But comparing 1930's unemployment to todays rates are problematic, in the 1930's 13 year old boys worked full time, many in factories, women were not seen in the workplace in the numbers we see today in America.

In the Depression GNP fell from 96 billion to about 75 billion (about 20%), while GDP in 2008 fell from 14.4 trillion to 13.8 trillion about 4.2%. It should be noted that US GDP has topped 15 trillion in 2011 and when taking high unemployment into account, we probably saw a wealth shift from 2008 to 2011, no surprise there.

Finally the US economy grew at a vigorous rate from 1934 to 1936, 11%, 9% and 13.9%. When stimulus spending was cut by 60% and the Fed tightened things up, the country fell back, in 1937-1938.

Summary:

1) 3 tears of stimulus ('34-'36) was not enough.
2) GNP loses in the Depression were more severe than recent loses (20% to 4%).
3) Current unemployment might be three quarters as bad as it was at the peak of the Depression.

Depression GNP
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
Recent GDP
http://www.data360.org/...

Defining the scale of the solution

Jobs are obviously the first priority, creating the next generation of energy infrastructure and reversing wage disparity complete the list for our purposes. China spends 9-10% of GDP on infrastructure, Europe and India 5% to 6%. If we spent 50 billion on the New Deal over 7 years, thats about 7 billion a year, or about 7% of GNP in 1936. While a dollar spent in the US in 1936 mostly stayed in the US that is no longer true.

Due to Energy, Resource depletion and EROEI issues the days of 6% Growth in the economy are gone, 3% to 3.5% might be the best we can expect short of practical fusion and space based resources,

Summary:
1) 7% of GNP wont do today, make it 10%.
2) 3 years wasn't remotely enough, make it 5 years.

New Deal cost 50 billion.
http://www.forbes.com/...

Conclusion
10% of GDP spent on jobs stimulus over 5 years. 1.5 trillion to start. That should get us on the right track, in years 4 and 5 consideration should be given as to whether a 6th year is needed.

Where do we find these new jobs?
The US manufacturing sector gets a big boost because of the nature of renewable energy development and infrastructure and surface transportation infrastructure jobs will play a major role. Healthcare related fields should add jobs over the next decades.

According to the US Dept of Energy there 2 main reasons why renewable energy technologies offer an economic advantage, 1) They are labor intensive, so they generally create more jobs per dollar invested than conventional electricity technologies and 2) they use primarily indigenous resources, so most of the energy dollars can be kept at home.

http://stalix.com/...

Wind power.
20% of US electricity in 20 years, 300 gigawatts of wind turbines with a capacity of 100 gigawatts. The US Dept of Energy estimates 500,000 jobs can be created in meeting the 20% from wind goal.

Wind Power jobs,renewable energy wind power,renewable energy,job creation

Solar Power.
Although the SEIA does not endorse a 20% in 20 years program, Rhone Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, said in November of 2010 "that installing 10 GW annually by 2015 would create as many as 220,000 jobs". Other studies estimate 480,000 jobs over 10 years, though they base the higher number of jobs on waiting for Solar panel factories to be built and count those jobs, as a predecessor to installation jobs. For our purposes 400,000 jobs over 20 years.
http://ussolarinstitute.com/...

Hydro
A recent study conducted by Navigant Consulting suggests between 480,000 and 1.4 million jobs can be created. Its not clear that these numbers include pumped hydro stage systems.

Smartgrid with HVDC
Job creation estimates range from 240,000 to 380,000 over 20 years, leading to more efficient clean power, replacing failure prone AC systems with DC results in more stable power, cleaner power. Smart meters with sensors on AC local systems give Utilities more warning of increasing demand. HVDC allows large amounts if electricity to be moved over 2000 miles, with 30 to 50% less loss than HVAC.

Jobs
http://asmarterplanet.com/...

http://gigaom.com/...

HVDC systems
http://www.dailykos.com/...

Manufacturing

Over the last decade this sector has lost over 6 million jobs. Manufacturing output dropped by 10% while GDP grew 15%. Capital investment and R&D tax breaks along with partnerships in energy can turn manufacturing around. Lets add 2-3 million jobs over 10-15 years. Many manufacturing jobs are good jobs, paying between 30k to 75k.

http://www.technologyreview.com/...

Infrastructure investment

Not much to say here. 2 million jobs a year. Many of them 45k to 70k, good jobs.
http://change.gov/...

With the creation of about 7.5 million jobs our economy will improve which will support more jobs, after all if we put 7 million people to work with good paying jobs, they're going to have money to spend. Maybe enough to buy a house and put solar panels on the roof and by a new 50 mpg car.

Unfortunately this is not the style of this White House, to make the Republicans block this proposal or vote against a 5 year 10 million job stimulus bill.

Chris "Tweety" Matthews asked Robert Reich:

What`s stopping him, Robert? Mr. Secretary...

Robert Reich answered

I`m not -- Chris, I`m not sure. I mean, there are a lot of theories circulating around

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

Finally, none of this can happen without an increase in Income tax rates, Corporate tax rates and Cap Gains rates. Tax breaks to incentivize smart investments in emerging tech and markets will put these smart long term job creating investments on par with market speculation without the higher risk associated with derivatives, options, futures and commodities. Reverse tax breaks for outsourcing of jobs, Good behavior should be rewarded, if you create US jobs, have a little tax break. I have also left out High Seed Rail, Light rail, Broadband, Healthcare jobs, call it another 2-5 million jobs.

And guess what, all these good jobs go a long way to making Social Security good thru 2065, not 2036.

UPdate 9:07pm  from a comment I made:

Michele Bachman, please hold for the President.

Barack: Michele, I'm proposing a 5 year 7.5 trillion dollar stimulus bill, I'd appreciate your vote.

Michele: WTF. You've got to be kidding me, no way.

Barack: Well then, next week I'm going to be in your district explaining to your constituents your plans to vote against their 30,000 jobs. The news conference is tuesday at 3pm, in time for the local 6 oclock news.

Michele:......... you're going to do what?

Barack: Tell your district you're killing their jobs. I'm calling John Boehner next, hurry up, whats your decision?

Originally posted to Keynesian Kossacks on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 05:18 PM PDT.

Also republished by DK GreenRoots, ClassWarfare Newsletter: WallStreet VS Working Class Global Occupy movement, In Support of Labor and Unions, Income Inequality Kos, Kosowatt, and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Make the GOP owners of 10 million jobs (14+ / 0-)

    I freaking double dare the GOP to block this or vote against it.

    No... i mean I dare the White House to propose this plan.... yeah thats the ticket. Then we wipe the floor with the GOP on election day 2012.

    FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 05:18:03 PM PDT

  •  This right here (7+ / 0-)

    I'm a huge fan of doing a New Deal style jobs program based on upgrading our infrastructure and growing green energy and sustainability. It's nice to see some numbers too, and forcing Republicans to vote against a bill like that would produce some interesting campaign ads I'd imagine. Good read.

    •  Numbers are tuff (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cotterperson, Ky DEM

      strictly guesses.

      Michele Bachman, please hold for the President.

      Barack: Michele, I'm proposing a 5 year 7.5 trillion dollar stimulus bill, I'd appreciate your vote.

      Michele: WTF. You've got to be kidding me, no way.

      Barack: Well then, next week I'm going to be in your district explaining to your constituents your plans to vote against their 30,000 jobs. The news conference is tuesday at 3pm, in time for the local 6 oclock news.

      Michele:......... you're going to do what?

      Barack: Tell your district you're killing their jobs. I'm calling John Boehner next, hurry up, whats your decision?

      FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 05:47:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's Politics Is Not to Propose Something (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmo, Roger Fox, Mighty Ike

    that won't pass. They've said that explicitly within (I'm almost certain) the past week about this very topic.

    Maybe House Democrats, or the Senate could propose such a plan it could support should the Republicans pass it in the House. I'm sure Obama wouldn't veto it.

    Congressional Dems might be willing to make the Republicans own the job blocking.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 05:40:02 PM PDT

    •  Folks wanna debate GOP ownership of (5+ / 0-)

      Stuff, the debt ceiling deal, S&P downgrade.

      I want the GOP to own the whole fooking 9 yda. The whole enchilada.

      I want a Dem,  (I know its not Obama's style) to walk up to the poker table and push 10 million jobs of chips forward, and with that nasty Jim Carville smile, say

      "Alright BOyz  Lets play. Who's in?"

      economy

      FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 05:58:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, this place is dead (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    side pocket

    Its like it was a friday night or something....

    FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 06:44:37 PM PDT

  •  you have a lot more foresight than (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FinchJ, Roger Fox

    all of these politicians rolled into a ball, put together.....

    I will also say that you are quite the idealist to even insinuate that our government is still trying to work for the people.....that is a ridiculous proposition.....

    Please do not tell me you are involved by being a member of DK4....really get involved.... http://october2011.org/frontpage The goal is not to bring your adversaries to their knees but to their senses. -- Mahatma Gandhi

    by Mindmover on Fri Aug 12, 2011 at 10:33:36 PM PDT

  •  Good diary, needs more exposure. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Roger Fox

    Sensible and practical.

    My question always remains, even after a proposition such as this one: to what end do we provide clean energy to the nation?

    I know you are addressing that topic in the diary and have probably thought about my question before as well.

    Yes, emissions from power generation are a major contributor to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, we need jobs. Yes to what you propose.

    We as a nation and species must recognize that power consumption is only a symptom of our unmitigated desire for things. Many of which are not anywhere close to being necessities. They are wants, not needs. Providing clean power for those wants is better than continuing the status quo, of course.

    But it only treats the symptoms of our consumer culture that exists only to perpetuate itself. This culture has also had an element built into it that reduces the chances that its practitioners will change course; that is the attitude that freedom equates to being able to do whatever you want to do no matter what.

    If such a program as the one you outline here does not come with a reason beyond replacing fossil fuels, then it will fail from the get go- even if it performs as expected. While it may provide the atmosphere for such a discussion on meaning, I feel that the right approach, the more bold approach, would be to cut to the chase and address our addiction to consumption.

    The reality out there is this: we face an existential threat to our species and our behavior is the cause. Those are facts and we need to couple such a program with a discussion on how we as a nation can change our culture. We face a cultural problem from which our generation of power is a symptom.

    Good diary!

    •  Thanks, theres a lot of carbon reduction (0+ / 0-)

      in there. Just looking at the Use of HVDC alone, that has significant Carbon reduction.

      FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Sat Aug 13, 2011 at 10:24:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The politics of job creation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Calamity Jean, Roger Fox

    These ideas are terrific; good for the environment and also the basis for a surge in productivity equivalent to that enjoyed from the computer/internet revolution. It is interesting to think about the basis for the political opposition. I think it comes from three areas. First is captured in the idiotic (but nevertheless politically effective) phrase "job-killing-taxes." Many voters do not understand economics and are convinced that each dollar of taxes paid results in private sector shrinkage. The right attacks these plans by saying that they kill more jobs than they create. Bachman would campaign that the President is actually killing jobs with this proposal. The left needs not only a coherent intellectual response on this point but also a visceral emotional response, something that captures the imagination and the gut. It has to be emotionally compelling as well as being analytically correct. The second attack from the right really comes through Hayek. Interesting to reflect on the fact "The Road to Serfdom was written after the New Deal. It is a related but different objection, suggesting that the government is incompetent and corrupt and that any transfer of resources from the private to the public sphere is not only wasted but threatens liberty. Of course Hayek is behind the right's attack on Health Care. The left needs to reflect on how the right has effectively transmitted these ideas to the voters and how they are then used politically to block progressive actions. We need someone to write a counterpoint to Atlas Shrugged. If it has been done, we need to make the writer as famous as Ayn Rand. There is certainly inconsistency in the right's view. Obviously the right believes that the military is capable of effective action. If the military, then why not other branches? The final dark political obstacle is that the defense contractors view all spending increases as belonging to them. If there are any job creating expenditures to be had, the army of lobbyists will be there to capture and imprison them for the defense community. The left needs an effective political strategy to execute on policy plans like those you have presented.

    •  This especially. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW
      The final dark political obstacle is that the defense contractors view all spending increases as belonging to them. If there are any job creating expenditures to be had, the army of lobbyists will be there to capture and imprison them for the defense community. The left needs an effective political strategy to execute on policy plans like those you have presented.
      Having too big a military tempts political leaders to use it.  

      Renewable energy brings national global security.      -6.25, -6.05

      by Calamity Jean on Sat Aug 13, 2011 at 10:29:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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