Mason-Dixon for The Salt Lake Tribune (8/8-10, registered voters, no trendlines):
Jim Matheson (D): 43
Orrin Hatch (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 9
Jim Matheson (D): 43
Jason Chaffetz (R): 49
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)
While it's still impressive that Rep. Jim Matheson can perform so well against Republicans in a state like Utah, Mason-Dixon's poll is a lot less rosy than recent surveys from Dan Jones (who showed a tie game) and Public Policy Polling (which actually had Matheson leading by a bit). I want to believe that a Democrat could steal away a seat in Utah, and I like the idea of expanding the playing field in a cycle when our offensive options are few. But the realist in me has me thinking it might be M-D, rather than Dan Jones or PPP, who is painting the most likely picture.
Anyhow, The Tribune also inquired about the GOP primary, where Jason Chaffetz looks set to challenge Orrin Hatch. Of course, there will be a convention first, which could obviate the need for a primary, but nonetheless:
Orrin Hatch (R-inc): 49
Jason Chaffetz (R): 39
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5.7%)
These are the best numbers for Hatch so far by quite a bit. PPP had him losing by four, and Dan Jones by one. However, convention delegates are likely to favor Chaffetz at a greater rate than the GOP electorate as a whole, so Hatch is far from out of the danger zone. In fact, I'd say he's deep inside it.