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Senate:

CT-Sen: Good news, cat fud connoisseurs: Linda McMahon says she's "leaning strongly" toward a second run for Senate, and, in the AP's words, "expects to solidify that decision over the next four to six weeks." This sets her up nicely on a collision course with ex-Rep. Chris Shays in the GOP primary.

HI-Sen: Ah, lovely. ConservaDem Ed Case signaled his intention to run a negative primary campaign, saying of frontrunner Mazie Hirono: "At the end of the day, I think [she] basically stands for how things are. I stand for how things should be." He also defended the bullshit poll he released not long ago (which earned him an unprecedented smackdown from the DSCC):

As for the DSCC attack on his polling, Case said the national organization doesn't like to think that a Republican can beat a Democrat in Hawaii.

"And that's not the case," he said. "I've said that to them directly. Common wisdom is that [GOP ex-Gov. Linda] Lingle could do very well against Hirono. So, from my perspective, the poll just said what everybody thinks. But they prefer to maintain the fiction, and I think it's better to put things on the table from the get-go."

And the CW about Lingle is just dead wrong. Two legitimate independent polls (one from PPP, another by Ward Research) showed Lingle getting destroyed by all comers. Case's poll only said what he feverishly wishes were true — but isn't.

ME-Sen: Following a report that Dem state Rep. Jon Hinck was staffing up for a possible Senate bid, Hinck himself confirms that he is "exploring" a bid, and in Roll Call's words, "said he would make a final decision in the fall."

MN-Sen: In the wake of his (shocking, I know) abandonment of his presidential bid, ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty says: "I won't be running against [Dem Sen. Amy] Klobuchar in 2012." One line of thinking says that Pawlenty would have an easier chance trying to defeat Al Franken in 2014. But whatever the case may be, the fact remains that the GOP doesn't even have a second-tier candidate running for Senate in Minnesota this cycle.

WI-Sen: The Club for Growth is trotting out another Republican Senate primary poll, this time in Wisconsin. The survey, from Basswood Research, shows ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (who the Club dislikes quite a bit) with just a 40-34 lead over ex-Rep. Mark Neumann.

Gubernatorial:

MT-Gov: Well huh. Last week, Jim Lynch, the chief of Montana's Dept. of Transportation, unexpectedly resigned, and he said he was considering a run for governor as a Democrat. Lynch's resignation was precipitated by something else, though. It turns out that his department hired his daughter four years ago, a possible violation of the state's anti-nepotism laws, which led Gov. Brian Schweitzer to demand Lynch's resignation. Lynch says he was planning to step down soon anyway, and he was surprised that the hiring surfaced as an issue now since it had taken place so long ago. Lynch says he's still thinking about running for office.

House:

CA-42: As we had expected, GOPer Ken Calvert says he'll seek re-election in the new 42nd CD (he currently represents the old 44th).

CA-52: Here's some more background on former Assemblywoman Lori Saldana, whom we mentioned last week had filed papers to run against Republican Brian Bilbray in the new 52nd. Interesting side-note: Saldana, who was term-limited out last year, had planned to run for an open state Senate seat, but it looks like redistricting made this the more enticing target.

FL-11: Mark Sharpe must be praying for a redistricting miracle. The Republican Hillsborough County Commissioner (mentioned previously) formally announced a challenge to Rep. Kathy Castor in what is a rather blue district — and one which would be hard to make a lot redder. Even if the courts pull a California-style down-to-the-studs remodeling of Florida's congressional map, those Democratic voters still have to go somewhere.

HI-02: Former state Senate Majority Leader Gary Hooser, who currently runs the state's Office of Environmental Quality Control, says he's considering an entry into the Democratic field for this open seat. Hooser ran here once before in 2006, losing in the primary to Mazie Hirono, who is now vacating the district to run for Senate. Hooser also lost the lieutenant governor's primary last year to now-LG Brian Schatz. The linked article also says that former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (who lost the 2010 Dem gubernatorial primary) "is poised to announce his intentions, perhaps by the end of the month" (for whatever that's worth).

IL-08: A pretty good get for Tammy Duckworth: Lynn Sweet reports that her sources tell her that Sen. Dick Durbin will endorse Duckworth in the Democratic primary, over Raja Krishnamoorthi. Sweet calls the endorsement "expected" and describes Durbin as Duckworth's "political patron."

MI-05: David Crim, a union organizer and, probably more importantly, the son of former state House Speaker Bobby Crim, says he's thinking about joining the Democratic field to replace retiring Rep. Dale Kildee. Kristin Longley of the Flint Journal helpfully recaps the long list of names who've already said the same:

Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee; state Rep. Woodrow Stanley; former Rep. Jim Barcia; state Sen. John Gleason; and former Lt. Gov. John Cherry.

MN-01: The NRCC is spending some $10K targeting, of all people, Tim Walz, on, of all issues, healthcare reform. You can watch the ad here; it sounds like something straight out of 2010, complete with lies about a "government takeover of healthcare." (They actually also have an identical spot running against Kurt Schrader in OR-05). Do they think this issue will get traction once again?

MT-AL: Democrat Rob Stutz (previously mentioned here) has decided to formally enter the race for Montana's open House seat.

NC-08, NC-13: Republican Vernon Robinson, who once described himself with the almost impossibly weird sobriquet of "the black Jesse Helms," has decided to carpetbag out to the new 8th CD for the chance of taking a shot at Dem Rep. Larry Kissell. Previously, Robinson had planned to run in the 13th, a seat he sought once before in 2006.

PA-07: The size of that ad buy by "Accountability PA" targeting Pat Meehan on Medicare we first mentioned last week is apparently just four figure (at least, according to Meehan's own team). One interesting detail, though: One local station refused to run the ad. Is PolitiFact's "pants on fire" bullshit about the Ryan plan seeping through to TV stations? I sure hope not, especially since the ad in question says "end Medicare as we know it," which apparently are the magic words that please the wankers at PolitiFact.

Grab Bag:

Passings: Former one-term Democratic Rep. Bob Shamansky passed away late last week at the age of 84, apparently unexpectedly. You may remember Shamansky from his run against GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi in OH-12 in 2006, a race he spent $1.4 million of his own money on, but wound up losing 58-42. Shamansky had previously served a single term in the House, improbably beating a Republican incumbent while Democrats lost a net of 34 seats nationwide in 1980. He got screwed in redistricting, though, and lost two years later to none other than John Kasich. Amazingly, Shamansky had run for Congress once before — in 1966. That must make Shamansky the answer to a trivia question or two, because there can't be a lot of guys who ran for the House in three separate decades with an intervening decade between each run.

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: Arizona's redistricting commission has released an initial set of maps, which they are calling "grid maps." They've already been hashed out extensively in comments, but I think any analysis is premature. These aren't even close to being legitimate maps. As the commission explains:

The Arizona Constitution mandates that redistricting begin with a grid map. This is to ensure that each Independent Redistricting Commission starts from scratch. But these grid maps reflect only two of the six criteria the commissioners are required to consider:

• Equal population; and
• Compactness and contiguousness.

In drafting the new district maps, commissioners must modify the grid maps to account for four other criteria:

• Compliance with the U.S. Constitution and the Voting Rights Act;
• Respect for communities of interest;
• Incorporation of visible geographic features, including city, town and county boundaries, as well as undivided census tracts; and
• Creation of competitive districts where there is no significant detriment to other goals.

So as you can see, these maps are illegal on their face, by the commission's own admission! They are simply a starting point.

CA Redistricting: California's redistricting commission voted yesterday to approve all of the new maps released a couple of weeks ago. As before, the vote on the congressional plan passed 12-2, with the same two Republicans voting against. Maps for the state Senate, Assembly, and Board of Equalization all passed 13-1. This finalizes the maps, unless they are overturned in court or via ballot initiative. The former sounds unlikely, but Republicans are busy discussing the latter. Click the link to see how it all gets gamed out.

ME Redistricting: Democrats and Republicans each unveiled their redistricting plans yesterday, and for a state with just two districts, they are very different from one another. Democrats propose moving just a single town from the 1st CD to the 2nd CD to maintain population equality, while Republicans want a more radical remapping that would reorient the state's two east-west districts to a pair of north-south districts. The GOP plan also moves Democratic Rep. Shellie Pingree out of her 1st Congressional District. With Republicans holding the redistricting trifecta, they'll presumably do whatever they want. (Maine's commission is purely advisory.) You can see the maps below:

TX Redistricting: Hah! What a bunch of stupid fucks. Not only did the GOP draw a congressional map that violates the Voting Rights Act, the map-makers emailed each other fretting that their plan violated the VRA, and then emailed each other to say they shouldn't put those thoughts into email! These communications were all made public thanks to the discovery process in the big redistricting lawsuit pending in San Antonio, and they sound exactly like the kind of thing my election law prof warned us all against. (Fortunately, he's representing the plaintiffs!) If you feel like dumpster diving, Michael Li has all the emails here, and a particular winner here. DK Electioneer rmpatrick did just that and found (as we had occasionally feared!) that Republicans in fact spent time trawling the SSP diaries for plans they could use in support of their aims.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos and Hirono for Senate.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Are court drawn Texas maps a possibility? (0+ / 0-)

    Or are we basically fucked for another 10 years?

    D:

    •  They are a huge possibility (9+ / 0-)

      If Republicans themselves acknowledge these maps are illegal, then there are serious issues. Pundits like Dave Wasserman have said that this would be the biggest redistricting fail ever if the court threw these maps out. And even if they don't, the Canseco, Farenthold, and Barton districts, among others, could be be ticking time bombs for the GOP anyway.

      •  ...AND, we may still be (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        basically fucked for another 10 years.

        Turn around, bend over, and spread 'em.  Here it comes...

        Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

        by tom 47 on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 06:46:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  All of which points out , A-GAIN, (7+ / 0-)

          how important the State Legislative seats are, especially every time we have a new census, and re-district the state.  ESPECIALLY one which has grown about 20% in the last ten years, and has gained MORE SEATS THAN ANY OTHER STATE, in fact, has net changed the number of its seats by more than any other state.  And the frackin' GOP has a lock on both houses of the state Lege.

          Walk some stinkin' precincts and knock on doors, folks.  They're ALL up for re-election again in 2012.  You want this same bunch again?

          Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

          by tom 47 on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 06:50:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  There are two WI-Recall Elections today... (14+ / 0-)

    Holperin (D) vs. Simac (T) and Wirch (D) vs. Steitz (T).  These are must win races.

    "Ich bin ein Dachs!"

    by PvtJarHead on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 05:32:54 AM PDT

  •  WTF?! What are Maine GOPers up to? (0+ / 0-)

    Are they trying to take out Michaud, Pingree, or both?

    •  Taking out Michaud, I think (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      They are putting Michaud and Pingree in the same district while trying to make Michaud's district more republican than its current D+3. I doubt they'll succeed. Michaud has run to the right of his GOP opponents on issues like gun control before.

    •  How does the proposed map affect ME-01? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      PVI wise

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02; Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 06:18:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't have exact numbers (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MilesC, MichaelNY

        but I assumed that since this is what the article at Bangor News (linked on the diary above) said.

        "Democrats countered that the Republicans’ idea for splitting the state more from east to west rather than from north to south is a thinly veiled way to make the 2nd District more competitive. Under the GOP plan, heavily Democratic Lewiston would move to the 1st District and would be replaced by more conservative communities in Lincoln, Knox and Kennebec counties.

        According to preliminary calculations from state Democrats based on 2010 voter rolls, the Republicans’ plan effectively would add about 10,000 new Republicans to the 2nd District. The 1st District would lose roughly the same number of Republicans, but most believe that district is firmly Democratic either way."

        •  Don't they realize that they can't beat (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          both Pingree AND Michaud!?

          I mean, its basic math....the more they try to weaken Michaud, the more they strengthen Pingree.

          Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

          by MilesC on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:16:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            But they think Pingree is a weaker incumbent.

          •  Would be funny if this pushed Michaud into (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer

            the Senate race against Snowe. I mean, it would be an uphill climb, but it Michaud may be the Dems strongest candidate.

            •  If this map does come to pass and (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SLDemocrat, jj32

              Michaud is pushed into the Senate race, just how dire are our chances to keep the open seat? At this point, I think I'd rather sacrifice a House seat to gain a Senate seat, because I think we'd keep the Senate seat for a long, long time and because we do have other opportunities to have a net gain of seats, even if we give one up in Maine. Still, it'd be nice to be competitive in both races.

              •  In the event Snowe were to win the primary (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, jncca

                This would be a potential sacrifice of a House seat in order to lose yet another Senate election against Snowe.

                The Democrats do need a good candidate, in case Snowe is defeated by an extremist in the Republican primaries. But it shouldn't be either current Representative. Taking the House is as important as keeping the Senate.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 09:52:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Very good point. (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, askew, jncca, MichaelNY

                  I think Jensen of PPP had it right back in May or March when he said that this is the perfect race for a Democrat in Maine without a lot to lose. If you run against Snowe as a Republican or as an Independent, you'll get trounced, but nobody will blame you for it. But if you win the nomination and she's not in the race, then you could easily become a senator. Luckily for our side, we aren't without options, even if there's no obvious candidate.

            •  Snowe is likely to drub any Democrat (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, James Allen, DCCyclone

              if she gets through the Republican primary.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 09:50:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Her numbers with republicans seem worse (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

                than people like Lisa Murkowski and Michael Castle's month  before the primary. If the tea party goes all in on her like they did with Charlie Crist, I have a feeling she could very well lose, they just need to find the right republican to finish the job.

                •  They don't seem worse; they are worse. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

                  The last time I checked, she was barely above water within her own party and didn't even crack 50 percent. Maybe that's changed slightly, but I doubt she's up to the level where Castle and Murkowski were. And neither of those individuals had nearly the track record that Snowe has in irritating the base.

              •  You're probably right, but I'd still like to (0+ / 0-)

                see a poll. Although self funders dont have the best track record, I think that might be Dems best chance here. With the approval rating of Congress so horrible, we need someone who can run as an outsider, and run lots of ads reminding people that Snowe is part of that Congress.

                •  She's part of that Congress (0+ / 0-)

                  but no-one can persuasively call her an insane maniac who wants the country to default on its debts. When she thinks it's essential to break with her party, she does - just not nearly as much as we wish she would. I just don't see any evidence that she has any likelihood of being ousted from the left.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Aug 17, 2011 at 02:07:28 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Linda McMahon is nuts (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, askew, supercereal, jj32, MichaelNY

    She has no chance of ever getting elected to the senate in    CT. If she wants to blow another 50 million that's good for the CT economy.
    I think one thing we learned last election is personal fortune can't buy you elective office.

  •  We needn't worry about messin' with Texas, for (5+ / 0-)

    ... Texas is messing with itself. And very publicly, redistricters! Proud of your work?

    Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

    by TRPChicago on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 06:48:00 AM PDT

  •  Funny (and scary) that the TX (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, James Allen, MichaelNY

    GOP used SSP maps!

    I'm glad that I never posted any of my Republican gerrymanders of other states! 'Ya never know who's hands they'll end up in!

    Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

    by MilesC on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:13:14 AM PDT

  •  No GOP Trifecta in Maine (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83

    Just FYI, it takes a 2/3 vote in the State House and State Senate in Maine to pass the new maps, so the GOP does not hold the trifecta.

    Most likely this will end up being drawn by the courts like it was time.

    "You must do the thing that you think you cannot do" - Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Gay In Maine on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:18:16 AM PDT

    •  Someone else had said (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The 2/3 requirement only held for state leg maps.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:23:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I weep for Maine if that is the case (0+ / 0-)
      •  Don't believe so (0+ / 0-)

        And I say that because it went to the courts the last two times this happened... one of those times, we held the trifecta.

      •  It is a statutory requirement for Congress (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        it's in the state constitution for the state legislature and county commissioners. The Republicans can simply repeal the statute for Congressional districts, then pass whatever they want. The constitutional amendment they passed to fix the "years ending in 3" redistricting problem enshrines the 2/3rds requirement for Congressional districts in the constitution... but only starting in 2021. So they can do whatever they want, then when Democrats are back in control in ten years, they can't pass anything without Republican support, which probably won't be possible, so the courts will be drawing the maps.

        So to make a long story short, the new map for this year could be the new basis for Maine's CDs for decades to come. And since constitutional amendments require a 2/3rds majority to pass, Democrats allowed this to happen. It's a feat of political malpractice.

  •  I don't know that I'd call Durbin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, MichaelNY

    Duckworth's "patron" -- she's more like the non-Chicago machine Democratic party's favorite.

    Rahm recruited her against Christine Cegelis in 2006, Quinn kept her in government, and I believe Durbin also send fundraising appeals for her in 2006 (during the primary, not GE).

    Duckworth is well-liked by Illinois' non-ward fiefdom insiders... I'm not saying that's a good or a bad thing (though - I was very much among those pissed in 2006... we came within 10 of Hyde in 2004 and like many on the blogosphere, thought that Cegelis had earned another shot, this time with some party backing and help).

    No doubt, she's got a strong backstory and I don't doubt that Durbin is legitimately impressed by her.  I likewise think Senator Durbin does a pretty good job balancing his role as a Dem leader in the Senate, representing Illinois, and being among the more left-leaning Senators in the Senate (those 3 things don't always jibe).

    I just don't like protege politics much... though - I guess Durbin was something of a protege of Paul Simon, and Simon just might be my all-time favorite Democrat - so what do I know...

    Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

    by zonk on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:24:00 AM PDT

  •  Vernon Robinson NC-05, NC-13, NC-08 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    incognita, bear83, MichaelNY

    There are so many bewildering questions about perennial candidate Vernon Robinson, but none more confusing than this one: why do people give him money to run with? Who are these people? He raised $2 million when he ran against Brad Miller in 2006, most of it from individual contributors according to OpenSecrets.org - so who admired him? why?

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:28:30 AM PDT

    •  He's an African-American with an ideology (5+ / 0-)

      somewhere between Jesse Helms and Jim DeMint (or maybe to the right of both of them).

      He'll never lack for campaign funding based on that - there's no shortage of conservatives with spare cash who desperately want to prove to themselves or others that they're down with the whole equality thing.  

      I half suspect that they actually do the math -- $10 buys you half a dozen "Kenyan Muslim in the WH" comments; $20 let's you say it's OK, you have "black friends"; and I suspect maxing out entitles you to a repercussion-free use of the N word.

      Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

      by zonk on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 07:40:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe and I have absoutely no proof (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      of this, the big donors names begin with "K".  Can you guess to whom I refer?

      Character is who you are when no one is watching.

      by incognita on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:26:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Robinson stands little chance of winning (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      the GOP primary. But if he did manage to squeak through with Tea Party backing, it would be a huge gift to Larry Kissell.

      "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by bear83 on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:41:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  even if Robinson's not the successful contender (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

        It can only help Kissell, I'd think, if there's a contested primary on the other side, sapping resources away from reserves for the general election.

        I'd love to see Kissell survive this round.

        A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

        by Christopher Walker on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 09:09:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes it would, Kissell would be favored (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

        Consider that black turnout will be sky-high next year, and Kissell should have the edge vs. Robinson even with the harsh new lines.  And no it doesn't help Robinson that he's black, he won't get any more black votes there than the GOP Presidential nominee.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:42:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Waiting for tonight, oh... (9+ / 0-)

    I've dreamed of this love for so long♪

    while we wait for tonight to see if Jim Holperin hangs on in WI SD 12, let's look at how he did in 2008, when he won the open seat 51-49. Note that both Holperin and Simac are from Vilas County, while Tom Tiffany (Holperin's 2008 opponent) is from Oneida County.

    The format is County Name: D%-R%

    Total: 51-49
    Florence: 43-57
    Forest: 56-44
    Langlade: 46-54
    Lincoln: 49-51
    Marathon: 49-51
    Marinette: 48-52
    Menominee: 86-14
    Oconto: 54-46
    Oneida: 54-46
    Shawano: 56-44
    Vilas: 50-50 (narrow Holperin victory)

    If Holperin can match or exceed these numbers, it's going to be a good night.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:00:46 AM PDT

  •  IN-sen: Herman Cain endorses Mourdock (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, Odysseus, MichaelNY, itskevin
  •  This Mainer hopes Pingree stays put (5+ / 0-)

    I'm fortunate to have her as my representative. She's a true progressive who cares about people over interests.

    The 1st District would actually become more blue under the Republican plan by virtue of adding Lewiston, one of the most solidly liberal communities in the state. If Pingree were to continue to represent the 1st District, she would never lose here.

    The real point of the map is to try and force out Mike Michaud in the 2nd District, as well as possibly take an electoral vote away from Obama next year (Maine is one of two states that can split electoral votes). To those kossacks who don't know Michaud, he's a Blue Dog Dem who is pro-life (NOTE: He did vote for the Affordable Care Act). He's also a prototypical blue collar guy; he spent more than 20 years as a millworker in Millinocket before running for Congress. He is also vehemently anti-free trade and has railed against NAFTA his entire career.

    Anyway, the 2nd District just became a little tougher for Michaud because it will now include the Midcoast should the GOP plan be adopted. As long as Lewiston/Auburn was in the district, Michaud never faced a serious challenge, not even last year. But the folks on the Midcoast are much more, um, restive than most of the rest of the state. In addition to disenfranchised millworkers whose jobs were sent to China, Michaud will now also have to deal with struggling lobstermen and fishermen who are far more likely to vote Republican.

    Mike Michaud may face his toughest challenge yet in 2012.

    I'm a Mainer, and I WANT MY STATE BACK!!!

    by The Truth Shall Set Ye Free on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:05:44 AM PDT

  •  I suggest we publicly beat Rick Perry (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, The Caped Composer, sawolf

    every time he makes an idiotic statement. Did I go too far?

    Seriously, this is one of the headlines at Political Wire: "Did Perry Go Too Far?" I know it's pointless to complain about this, but man oh man, it's unfair.  Had a Democrat suggested that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve be roughed up, even in a joking way, Fox News, and probably CNBC, would be shitting themselves in anger. The fake pearl clutching would be epic; there might even be calls for him to resign or drop out of the race he was in. If anyone thinks this will happen to Perry, there's a bridge I'd like to sell you.

    On another note, Karl Rove says that Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and everyone's favorite dud, Sarah Palin, may jump into the race. I'm not at all worried about any one of them, so by itself, someone like Rove mentioning this makes me roll my eyes. But when you consider the fact that seemingly attractive candidates like John Thune, Mike Huckabee, and Mitch Daniels have all passed on the race; that it took Rick Perry a long time to jump into the race; and that we're heading into the fall of 2011, with just a few months to go before the first primaries, with the Republicans STILL unhappy about their candidates, I can't help but smile. Obama does have serious vulnerabilities, perhaps many more than other candidates, but they can't beat somebody with nobody. The fact that they are so unenthusiastic about anyone who is already in this race is definitely a good sign for our side.

  •  Rec'd and tipped for the last paragraph. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, bear83, MichaelNY

    That is one of the funniest things I have ever read.  Is there any repug in Texass with an IQ over 60?  I think not.

    Character is who you are when no one is watching.

    by incognita on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:23:36 AM PDT

  •  Maine (5+ / 0-)

    Usually, voters don't care about redistricting as such, but this is pretty radical for a state that has for decades only made required modest tinkerings to balance the population. I think there'll be actual opposition from this one from local residents.

  •  Walker recall PPP finds the race closer (0+ / 0-)
  •  Paul Ryan Might Be Serious About Presidential Run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    According to this, Paul Ryan has been taking the possibility of a presidential run seriously. I'm not sure exactly how good his odds of getting the nomination are, but they have to be at least as good as anyone else's chances. And while the press seems to treat him as a threat to Obama, I continue to believe he'll be steamrolled if he runs. His wonkery and alleged intellectual skill are dramatically overrated; I've seen nothing special as far as charisma and speaking skills; and as the public face of the Ryan plan, he makes it considerably easier for Democrats to attack the plan and those who support it. That last bit cannot be overstated; it's one thing to try to tie Rick Perry or Mitt Romney to the Ryan plan, but it's another to have the face himself as the candidate. It'll give House Democrats in every district an easy talking point and could make a crucial difference in a lot of close Senate races, too.

    •  I think he'd crash in the primaries (0+ / 0-)

      A lot of these people who get hyped and wooed, they're wooed by establishment types and monied interests, without regard to actual appeal to a broad range of GOP voters.

      I don't see Ryan getting any traction in the primaries.  His budget makes him someone Republicans like, yes, but that doesn't automatically translate to wanting him to be President.  There are lots of Democrats I like who I would not choose for President in a primary.  And starting so late, he'd just get crushed.

      I agree with you 100% that Obama would steamroll him.  Even with 45% job approval, Obama likely wins by a bigger margin than he beat McCain.  Ryan's vision is not what most Americans want generally, and they're sure as hell not going to give it a mandate.

      All this is aside from the fact that he's terrible on TV, not ready for prime time, and would struggle badly as a Presidential candidate on a lot of levels.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 08:46:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bilbray's move to the CA 52nd (0+ / 0-)

    from the article
    "Bilbray moved from Carlsbad to Clairemont in December because of a family emergency."

    That cracks me up because he moved rather suddenly TO his mother's address in Carlsbad just so he could run in the  50th after 'duke' Cunningham debacle.
    i am beginning to see a pattern. ya think?

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