With Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper booted from office er, free to campaign against Ron Kind and spend time with his mistress, respectively, full-time, SSP Labs (a division of Daily Kos Elections) brings you the last installment covering the two Senate districts of the remaining Dems facing recall, Jim Holperin and Bob Wirch.
SD-12:
Jim Holperin's SD-12 is a sprawling district covering no fewer than portions of 11 counties in Northern Wisconsin, all north of Green Bay. Like five of the six districts contested last week, this is quintessential rural Wisconsin swing territory - areas with traditionally Republican roots but also turned out for Obama; of the districts last week, SD-12 bears most resemblance to Luther Olsen's SD-14: both districts went solidly for Prosser (Olsen's by 16, this one by 14), and swung only slightly towards KloJo between February and April (Olsen's by 6, this one by 3). Barrett and Feingold lost both districts quite badly (SD-14 was -16 for both; SD-12 is -17 Barrett, -15 Feingold), but Obama carried both by a small but solid margin (SD-14 by 7, this one by 5). In terms of geography, Democratic territory includes Rhinelander in Oneida County and the (notoriously low-turnout) Native American reservations that cover all of Menominee and parts of Shawano County. The interstitial space is generally Republican territory, save for some swingy smaller cities and towns. Holperin's managed to hold this territory for quite awhile (though he didn't have to face the Republican tide of 2010) so there's plenty of room for optimism, but this will be the race to watch tonight.
SD-22:
Bob Wirch's SD-22 covers parts of Kenosha and Racine counties, also known to us Chicagoans as "that space between the North Suburbs and Milwaukee, where I-94 is always under construction. Oh, and that cheese castle." (The district also technically covers the part of the city of Burlington in Walworth County, which has zero population as of the census and cast zero votes in any of the races we're analyzing.) All of Kenosha County except the town of Wheatland are included, and only the town of Bristol in Racine is in the district. The pattern applying to both Kenosha and Racine Counties - that Democratic strength is concentrated in the eponymous lakefront cities, with towns becoming more Republican further west - shows in the district. The city of Kenosha balances the Republican towns in both counties further west, with the town of Somers and village of Pleasant Prairie serving as swing territory. (I'd say both municipalities are shifting somewhat leftward, especially Pleasant Prairie, which continues to suburanize.) The district went solidly for Obama by 16 (not Kapanke territory, but more friendly than any of the other 5 districts last week), and shifted huge towards KloJo - by 20 points - allowing her to pull out a victory here in April. A pretty good bellwether district, both Feingold and Barrett lost but not terribly so, by 6 and 7. Given this, I'm not terribly concerned for Wirch, unless Democratic enthusiasm is significantly dampened.