So it is on the tip of everyone in Wisconsin's collective tongue. When can we start the recall of Scott Walker? With a summer of recalls finishing on the upswing for the good guys there are many wishing to keep the momentum. The next steps are important. While the numbers are moving our direction, without question, the crown jewel of it all will be to remove the Governor from office. The earliest it could be started is the first week of this November. Some believe it might be better to wait until the Presidential election in November 2012. Many would wish it to happen today. It can't happen today, nor can it wait until November, 2012.
The upcoming recall of Governor Scott Walker will happen, make no mistake. Sitting in a room today with labor leaders from Wisconsin there were no voices in the room saying otherwise. In moving from an anecdotal post-mortem on the Senate recalls to talk about the recall of the Governor a few things were clear.
We have momentum. Without getting into deep analysis on the recall races there are significant losses in Republican votes from those cast for Walker and Johnson in 2010. Overall, the Democratic vote was greater than the Republican vote by about 5,000-6,000. In hard Republican or leaning Republican turf. A heavy lift that fell short of the coup that would have been flipping the Wisconsin State Senate.
We have an activated base. Our base has been knocking themselves out on the recalls. As much to swipe at Walker as attempts to punish Senators. Our grassroots combined with some inspiring solidarity across the nation has matched the ridiculous amount of money that came in on the Republican side. If we lose our grassroots motivation we lose.
Turnouts were huge for senate elections in August of an off year. In most districts they were somewhere approaching presidential election turnouts. Not quite that high, but very high. We got our people out. Republicans turned out also but not as much as the Democrats and Independents.
Republicans underperformed. Every Republican candidate received less than the percentage garnered by Walker or Johnson in 2010. Some significantly so (Hopper, Olsen) The GOP performance in the Democratic recall districts dropped off by double digits. Check the numbers hereThe Wisconsin Voter Blog @JSOnline
Union members will expect that action is taken. If it is not done by their leaders they will do it themselves. And rightfully so. Other groups may also step into the breech to kick start the recall. We should be on the front line and lead, not follow.
A recall of Governor Walker will cure all ills. Based on what I've outlined let me make the clear case that we cannot wait until November, 2012 to recall Walker. I understand that there are concerns that the GOP presidential primary is in the Spring and a recall started in November could end up being placed by the GAB on the Spring ballot. Two thoughts on that. If we can't turn out Dems by putting Walker up for recall, we don't deserve to win. It would be a marquee race and will possibly overshadow the GOP primary in local and national attention. Let's put a Dem primary in motion in the Spring if we feel that desperate.
Allow me to also address the argument for waiting for the higher turnout that comes with a presidential race. We are already almost there. Again, the Walker recall will be a marquee event in Wisconsin and across the country. Any possible bump in turnout will be negligable. The risk of waiting and losing all the steam, far outweighs any potential increase in turnout. The national party (DNC) will no doubt put pressure on the state party to have the recall in November, 2012 to increase turnout and to have a ready to go voter mobilization force in play in an increasingly purple, and important swing state. I am encouraged to hear the DPW head, Mike Tate, state that the recalls will be put into play by the grassroots, not party machinery. He will need to push back on the DNC.
The timing of this must depend upon keeping momentum and focus. Between now and 14 months from now the Republicans will have likely created enough distraction to syphon off energy. By waiting until November,2012 we will definately already have a diluted effort to recall the Governor because we will have other state and national races going on. We don't want to dilute this effort if at all possible. Instead, what we want is dilution by the Republican effort. Precisely because there is a GOP presidential primary there will be a dilution of Republican contributions and groundgame. That is to our advantage.
Last, our members will expect nothing less than an immediate effort to recall Walker. The longer we wait the more damage he and the rest of the legislature can do to the public. Our membership will bloom with a successful effort. When members ask "What are we doing about he Walker recall?", we cannot be in the position of saying that we aren't doing anything. That would be death.
Beyond all of that it is the right thing to do. Republicans may have recall fatigue, but I haven't heard much of that from our side. There is talk of recalls in the Spring for Senators VanWangaard and Fitzgerald. A short break to regroup and plan might be helpful, but there is significant energy out there to get to work on this. What better place than here, what better time than now! Let's get to work!
Sun Aug 21, 2011 at 6:14 AM PT: Does the Feingold announcement that he will not run for Governor or for Senate change the timing of the recall? I think that could be a possibliity for several reasons. First, fundraising. Any of the other potential candidates to replace Walker do not have either the warchest, nor the ability to build a warchest like Feingold. It will take them considerable more work and time to do so than for someone like Feingold. Second, name recognition. Feingold had it in spades. None of the others do. Not even Barrett really. Nobody knows about these other folks. Nobody knew Joanne Kloppenberg either and she ended up being defeated. We will need a candidate that can lay claim to budgetary experience. Without it Walker will win the fiscal arguments without really having to defend the methodology of this most recent budget debacle. Other important achievements by any candidate will take time to bring forward, message and promote. All while fundraising, door knocking and stumping. This could take awhile in order to be successful.