It's been a long road from the Halls of Montezuma outskirts of Benghazi for the rebel forces in Libya. But amidst reports that Kaddafi may be ready to give it up and reports of significant gains by the rebels of late, there's a reasonable chance the forces of the Transitional National Council may be walking on the Shores of Tripoli in the foreseeable future.
At least for me, it's hard to understand what is going on without a map. Useful Libyan battle maps have been hard to come by, so I thought I would alert those who are in search of a good map showing the current state of the Libyan conflict that I've found one.
It's quite big in it's entirety, but well worth the time to examine. Here's just part of it from a screenshot, but it doesn't do the real image justice.
There is also an companion article by Chris Weigant, published at Business Insider. Below are some excerpts from his synopsis.
The Libyan rebels have launched an offensive from all three of the major areas they currently control... Currently, the battle for Brega ... is still being fought. The slowdown in the rebels' advance here is due in large part to the new tactic the loyalist forces are using -- withdrawing from an area after laying hundreds of landmines...
While the rebel advance has slowed in Brega, though, it has sped up noticeably in Libya's west... The ultimate objective, of course, is Tripoli. To Tripoli's east is the second rebel-held area, around the city of Misrata... in recent weeks the frontlines have moved out from the city itself to the surrounding towns. The rebels have expanded their perimeter to the point that loyalists cannot shell Misrata any more, because they've been pushed back out of range... the rebels are also pushing west from Misrata, moving the fight along the coast to the city of Zlitan...
In the westernmost part of the country, the rebels have had their biggest successes... the rebels have taken town after town until they now control the entire chain of the Nafusa Mountains. A few weeks ago, they took the town of Zintan, and as you can see on the battle map, they have quickly advanced from there in two separate directions...
It seems obvious that the rebels are attempting to encircle Tripoli... If the rebels can hold on to Zawiyah and Gharyan, they may have reached a tipping point in their war effort... If all goes well for the rebel forces, they will soon be within reach of the goal of completely surrounding Tripoli.
If they do surround Tripoli, one of two things will likely happen. Either Kaddafi will give it up, facing the threat of internal revolt if for no other reason, or there will be a potentially brutal siege which might result in a nightmarish block-by-block fight for the city, conceivably causing large numbers of casualties and reducing the city to rubble.
Of course, it's looked like Kaddafi was about to go under before, many months ago, and it did not come to pass. Predicting the future is hard, but Intrade bettors now think there's an 80% chance he'll be gone before the year is out.
Whatever the pros and cons of each side in the conflict may be, it will be good to see it come to an end, the sooner, and less violently, the better.
11:38 AM PT:
Rebels in Libya are celebrating after retaking control of Martyr Square in the key coastal town of Zawiyah.
The rebels now believe they have loyalist forces on the run and have effectively taken control of the whole town.
Sky News
11:52 AM PT: On the other hand
ZAWIYA, Libya — Moammar Gadhafi's forces launched a fierce counterattack in a strategic western city on Friday, firing rockets, mortar shells and anti-aircraft guns in a bid to keep the rebels from gaining complete control and advancing toward the nearby capital.
Associated Press
12:13 PM PT:
Libyan rebels say they overcame a force commanded by Muammar Qaddafi’s son Khamis to capture the western town of Zlitan and advanced toward Tripoli, the capital.
Rebel units from the besieged city of Misrata attacked Zlitan under an artillery barrage, linking up with other opposition fighters inside the town, according to a statement late today from their Military Council in Misrata. The rebels also approached Wadi Kam, a valley 140 kilometers (85 miles) west of Tripoli, it said.
Bloomberg
2:30 PM PT:
Muammar Gaddafi's 41-year grip on power in Libya looked more precarious than ever on Friday night, as rebel forces advanced on the capital from three directions after breaking out of the once-besieged town of Misrata.
With rebels taking control of the coastal town of Zlitan in the east, those in the west claimed to have made progress clearing out the last pro-Gaddafi troops from Zawiyah, 30 miles west of Tripoli. They now have the main coastal road under pressure on both sides of the capital and also under threat from the Nafusa mountains.
Gaddafi's army outside Tripoli is trapped in a series of besieged and shrinking enclaves, with rebels controlling more than two thirds of the country. And as the stranglehold on the capital tightens, plans are being made to evacuate the last remaining foreign workers by sea.
Guardian