Democrats were just fine with the election results in 2010 here. Republicans targeted a few Democrats, but failed to gain a single seat here. However, they made some major changes in redistricting here. There are currently 8 Democrats that live in Lake County, and eight districts to run in, but two of them are now open seats. Two sets of Democrats are now paired. The tried to isolate as many Democrats in St. Joseph County into one district, and they eliminated a seat in the Region. They also created three Lake County seats that they could win, including one seat that they should win. Several of the few GOP incumbents in this region were not helped though, and one was paired with a Democrat. This is a region where the decision of President Obama to compete in Indiana or not will have a big impact. If he competes in Indiana, his team will work this area hard for a big Democratic turnout, which would boost Democrats chances in some of the competitive seats. And one cautionary note as to Elkhart County. It has one of the largest swings from 2004 to 2008. Bush won the county by more than 40 points, while Obama only lost by 11. The question there will be whether 2012 and beyond looks more like 2004 or 2008. The answer to that question will determine whether Democrats can make a play at Districts 21 and 48 in the future. In fact, this region is the opposite of the Southern Indiana numbers for the Presidential race, in that Obama over performed in this region.
I hope that readers will again notice how the GOP packs Democrats in a county into ultra-Democratic districts, and then chops the surrounding precincts for their gain. The idea that the GOP drew fair maps for the Indiana House is as laughable as imagining Sarah Palin playing on Jeopardy. If anyone remembers the 2001 round of redistricting, the Democrats did not exactly go for the gold. They tried to protect most of their incumbents and made only two major changes. They eliminated a Benton County based seat held by a retiring Democrat and moved it to Marion County, and they put Rep. Jim Aderholt (R-Indianapolis) in a more Democratic district.
Since this region has a sizable minority population (unlike most of Southern Indiana), I am putting the race stats with the political ones. Note: I did not miss District 13. It was moved from Lake County to an area west of Lafayette.
First a Map of "The Region"
Now a Blue to Red Map of how The Region voted in 2008
District 1: Incumbent: Linda Lawson (D), elected 1998, Obama 73.2, McCain 26.7, Black 21.2, Hispanic 36.0
The northwestern part of Lake County near the Illinois border has one the highest percentages of Anglos for Northern Lake County. Traditionally, Northern Lake County has had a high minority percentage, which became whiter as one moved South. The new District 1 has a much higher Hispanic population that its former version, thanks to a jet going east to take in more of Hammond, instead of following the state line into Munster. In fact, it is the most Hispanic district in the state now. Exit polls showed Indiana Hispanics gave President Obama his highest percentage of any state in the nation. They were 4% of the statewide vote in 2008, and one could argue that Hispanic growth in the state was the deciding factor in putting President Obama over the top. Linda Lawson or any Democrat should be safe here. Lawson's biggest future challenge could be a minority primary challenger. This district is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
After I was getting close to finishing this diary, I thought I would see if it is possible to create a Hispanic majority seat and maintain three Black majority seats. The Hispanic majority district took a few minutes and basically is made by combining the Hispanic parts of Hammond and East Chicago. But I could only get it up to around 50%. The three Black majority districts were simple, with them being 50% (green), 53% (purple), and 57% (red). I have not heard a peep about any lawsuits against this map, but not having a Hispanic majority district could be a possible (but I doubt it).
District 2: Incumbent: Earl Harris (D), elected 1982, Obama 90.5, McCain 9.0, Black 51.6, Hispanic 30.9
This district is the most Democratic in the state, concentrated in East Chicago and Gary, plus a small amount of Hammond. The new District 2 lost its tentacle that reached into St. John Township, and exchanged it for precincts in Hammond and more of Gary. It also has the lowest percentage of whites in the state (at 15.8%). While it is a black majority district, the Hispanic population is rising. East Chicago now has an Hispanic Mayor, and every East Chicago precinct is now in this district. It is likely the next round of redistricting will require an Hispanic majority seat in Lake County, and one may wonder how long three black majority districts can be maintained. There is not much to say here politically, it is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 3: Incumbent: Charlie Brown (D), elected 1982, Obama 85.7, McCain Black 51.8, Hispanic 11.9
This district includes most of the troubled city of Gary, home of the Jackson family, where the steel mills once ruled the city. However, as many jobs were lost, problems became worse here, to the point it became the murder capital of America. And it has continued its population loss. To demonstrate how bad the population loss has been, in the 1970s Congressional map, the 1st district was only the northern third of Lake County, now it is all of Lake and Porter, plus half of LaPorte County. It lost 22% of its population in the last ten years and 55% of its population since 1970. Charlie Brown, who is a colorful character, has represented this area for a long time, and has led the fight to pass a statewide smoking ban. He is not going anywhere. In fact, he got much safer, given he loses all of the Porter County portions of his district, and moves south to take in more of Gary, and parts of Hobart and Lake Station. This district is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 4: Incumbent: Ed Soliday (R), elected, Obama 50.5, McCain 48.6, Black 2.1, Hispanic 6.0
There is no way to put it any other way, the old District 4 was extremely ugly looking. However, it voted McCain 50.9, Obama 48.2. Ed Soliday would have definitely preferred it to this one. It is more or less a Valparaiso district, with a few surrounding precincts. Soliday has not had a serious challenge here since 2006. There is a lot of union members in this area, and if the Republicans push for right to work legislation, it will hurt them in a district like this. Valparaiso has been traditionally Republican, but this district has been trending Democratic, so this could be a possible target for them. If Democrats ever want to take back the House, I don't see how they could do it without this seat. For now, this seat LEANS REPUBLICAN.
I will start with a South-Bend Elkhart Area Map
And a Voting Strength Map from 2008
District 5: Incumbent: Craig Fry (D), elected 1998, Obama 51.8, McCain 47.5
In 2004, Craig Fry had a close call. What bailed him out was not St. Joseph County, but the small slice of Elkhart County he had. Now, this district is all in St. Joseph County, in the Mishawaka area. The Obama number here dropped by three points. Fry is running for Mayor this year, where his chances are about 50/50, given his abrasive personality. The new 5th District is fairly close, and both parties would have viable choices to succeed Fry. In Indiana, a vacancy for a state legislative or local office is filled by the precinct committee chairs in the area, so a Democratic replacement would have a one year head start on a GOP challenger. Until we see the Mayor's race outcome, this district LEANS DEMOCRAT.
District 6: Incumbent: Pat Bauer (D), elected 1972, Obama 70.7, McCain 28.4, Black 25.1, Hispanic 11.0
Republicans gave Democratic Leader and former Speaker Pat Bauer a very safe Democratic safe, but maybe a little too safe? There is a large minority population in this district, who could challenge Bauer in the primary, but I think this is only a GOP dream, rather than reality. While Republicans do not like Bauer, he has a strong hold on the Democratic Caucus, and is popular in his home of South Bend. This district is SAFE DEMOCRAT and SAFE BAUER.
District 7: Incumbent: Dave Niezgodski (D), elected 2006, Obama 56.2, McCain 42.8, Black 12.0, Hispanic 10.3
When I first looked at this seat, I was really worried for the ability of Democrats to hold it, given that it would reach into the southern part of St. Joseph County that sent Jackie Walorski to Indianapolis. However, the numbers showed Obama won here by more than 13 points, thanks largely to precincts on the west and southwest sides of South Bend. This is slightly less Democratic than its former version. This district almost certainly voted for Bush in 2004, so Republicans could theoretically make a play here if the seat opened up and Democrats put up a weak nominee. For now, this seat is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 8: Incumbent: Ryan Dvorak (D), elected 2006, Obama 57.3, McCain 41.7, Black 9.1, Hispanic 4.6
Dvorak was elected to this seat when his father was elected St. Joseph County Prosecuting Attorney in 2006, and he has not had a serious problem holding onto this seat. This district is similar to its previous version, but it now runs along the Michigan border into LaPorte County. It is still Democratic leaning. It is also the home of Notre Dame. However, look at the Obama number of 57 with caution. He made major gains in St. Joseph County and this district probably voted for Bush in 2004. Dvorak should be fine here, but a weaker Democrat could get caught napping. In case you did not notice a pattern here Districts 5-8, from my previous diary, the GOP concentrated Democrats in District 6, so that they could make the others more Republican friendly. St. Joseph County proved to be too Democratic to create McCain seats, but they did get three districts with improved GOP numbers. This district is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 9: Incumbent: Scott Pelath (D), elected 1998, Obama 64.4, McCain 34.4, Black 16.7, Hispanic 5.0
If you look at the new Congressional map, you see a small chunk of LaPorte County put into the 1st CD. When you look at the numbers in this district, it is easy to see why they put Michigan City into it. This district was heavily Democratic before, and continues to be. It basically traded part of the City of LaPorte for the eastern part of Chesterton in Porter County (probably to keep those precincts out of District 4). In 2008, LaPorte County cast the highest percentage of votes against Mitch Daniels than any other county in the state. His sale of the Indiana Toll Road is extremely unpopular here. Pelath is a frequent critic of Mitch Daniels and a thorn in his side. He has been around politics in Michigan City for a long time, including working for former Rep. Tim Roemer. He should have absolutely no trouble holding this seat for as long as he wants it. It is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 10: Incumbent: Charles Moseley (D), elected 2008, Obama 58.9, McCain 39.9, Black 4.6, Hispanic 12.7
Like Lake County (but not as extreme), Porter County starts out largely Democratic near Lake Michigan and gets more Republican as it moves south. This is the northern Porter County district and it is solidly Democratic. District 10 always had as its anchor, but Districts 4 and 10 used to pick and choose which Chesterton and Valparaiso precincts that they would take in. This map splits Chesterton with District 9, and all of Valparaiso goes in District 4. The effect of this was to keep this a Democratic district, but made District 4 somewhat more favorable to Democrats. This district also gained the Lake Michigan shore parts from District 3, which is now confined entirely in Lake County. Moseley should be in good shape here. This district is SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 11: OPEN SEAT, McCain 55.0, Obama 44.0, Black 0.6, Hispanic 6.0
This district takes in some of Don Lehe's old District 15, parts of Shelli VanDenburg's old version of District 19, and the southern part of Ed Soliday's former version of District 4. All of these parts add up to a GOP friendly district. County Councilman Rick Niemeyer from Lowell is the most talked about Republican here. There are no big name Democrats mentioned here yet, and even Democrats acknowledge this district has a Republican lean, but they think they could make a play in a presidential year in this district. I am skeptical of how much of a fight Democrats can put up now, but there is a clear trend of Democratic numbers rising each year in Central and Southern Lake County, so it may be more competitive by 2020. Right now, this district is LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
District 12: Incumbents: Maria Candelaria Reardon (D) 2006, elected, Dan Stevenson (D), elected 1994, Obama 55.0, McCain 44.1, Black 6.1, Hispanic 14.5
Lake County Democrats are basically in a game of musical chairs right now. There are eight Democrats and eight chairs, however, one Republican has already take one (Open District 11), and four of the Democrats have a chair (Lawson, Harris, Brown, and VanDenberg). that means there are only two or three (depending if one moves to open District 15) chairs left for four Democrats to find. The old version of this seat was Munster and then an arm that jetted north through Hammond and East Chicago (all the way to Lake Michigan) to pick up Hispanic parts of those cities. This district is mostly Munster and Highland, but about half of Griffith, and some of the southern precincts of Hammond. This made for a very low minority share of the district. Despite this, I initially thought that Maria Candelaria Reardon, the only Hispanic member of the entire General Assembly should be slightly favored here since more of her old district is part of this new one than Stevenson, who is considering moving to the open District 15. However, it appears that this may be closer to 50/50 in the old district representation, so I am sure Stevenson is keeping his options open. This district is not nearly as Democratic as the old one, with only an 11% Obama win. It is possible that an aggressive Republican could catch a Democrat sleeping, but I don't think that is likely. This district is SOLID DEMOCRAT.
District 14: Incumbents: Vernon Smith (D), elected 1990, Chet Dobis (D), elected 1970, Obama 82.7, McCain 16.8, Black 53.7, Hispanic 10.8
Chet Dobis has been in the Indiana legislature longer than anyone right now. He is not close with Democratic Leader Pat Bauer and Speaker Bosma even made him a committee chair, along with Steve Stemler. He only half-way participated in the walkout. Stemler stayed with the Republicans, 38 other Democrats went to Illinois, and Dobis stayed in his home in Merrillville. One might have expected the Republicans to reward him with a safe seat to occupy, but they did the opposite. In fact, his district is now a rural open seat along between the Illinois border and Lafayette. Dobis' old district was an east-west district that ran from St. John and Schereville through Merrillville into Hobart, and it leaned Democratic. Vernon Smith, an African-American member, represented the old District 14 and it was largely Gary and Lake Station, with part of Hobart. This new version is has the highest black percentage in Lake County and includes all but one precinct in Dobis' hometown of Merrillville (it is a town, not a city, despite its size), the southern part of Gary, and a few precincts in Hobart. Dobis has not said what he plans on doing. He initially stated a preference for running here, but a white Democrat that is close to the GOP probably would have little chance against a highly respected fellow African-American Democrat. Then there was a great deal of talk of him running in the new and open District 15, as is the case with Rep. Dan Stevenson, whose District 11, which was chopped into little pieces. This district now is safe for Vernon Smith, and SAFE DEMOCRAT.
District 15: OPEN SEAT (maybe), McCain 50.6, Obama 48.7, Black 3.4, Hispanic 10.2
This may be one of the most interesting races in the state. There has already been talk of Chet Dobis and Dan Stevenson moving here to run in this close district. They would need to find overlapping precincts since Indiana requires a person to live in their district one year prior to election day. Initially, the most serious buzz is about Dobis moving here since he is not likely to defeat another incumbent Democrat in a black majority district. Now, much is focused on Stevenson. This district, set mainly in St. John Township, has several Republican names mentioned, including Lake County Assessor Hank Adams (a former St. John Township Assessor), Schererville Councilman Hal Slager, and former Congressional candidate Peter Lindemulder. Even if Democrats don't win this district in 2012, the likelihood is that given its proximity to other strongly Democratic districts to its north, that it will move in the Democratic column in a few years. Right now, I call this district a TOSSUP, but if they do not get a decent candidate, that will change.
District 16: Incumbent: Doug Gutwein (R), appointed 2007, McCain 56.2, Obama 42.2, Black 0.6, Hispanic 4.5
The previous District 16 took in parts of six counties, and was strongly Republican. The new version takes all of Pulaski County and parts of four more counties, and is strongly Republican. This district looks much cleaner in shape. Doug Gutwein was appointed when Rep. Mike Smith resigned to become a lobbyist. Gutwein should be happy that his home of Pulaski County is now completely in District 16. He or any Republican should have no trouble holding this seat. This district is SAFE REPUBLICAN.
District 17: OPEN SEAT, McCain 56.9, Obama 41.6, Black 0.5, Hispanic 7.5
While Rep. Tom Dermody may have been thrown under the bus by the GOP, 2010 losing candidate Francis Ellert may be the winner. I am sure Dermody would have like his home in LaPorte to have been linked with Marshall County, but it got linked with Nancy Debowski's home instead. He lost to Nancy Dembowski by less than 300 votes, but won Marshall County by over 1300. I would say the Democrats should look for a strong elected official in Marshall County, but they have not won any races countywide there in a long while. In fact, they do not even have any township trustees. This district also includes the City of Bremen, the home of former Gov. Otis Bowen. He represented a district similar to this when he was Speaker of the State House, before he went on to be elected Governor in 1972. I do not expect Ellert to have a free ride here. There are a lot of Republican elected officials in this district, and one would not expect them to pass on an open seat like this. Democrats are looking for somebody, but whoever they find will have a hard time in this new seat. This district is SOLID REPUBLICAN.
District 18: Incumbent: David Wolkins (R), elected 1988, McCain 64.1, Obama 34.7, Black 0.6, Hispanic 3.6
Wolkins was the only Republican in the State House to vote against the Governor's plan to get rid of the Indiana Toll Road and did not get serious primary challenge for it. This district is heavily Republican, but it is a shell of its former version. The old District 18 took in the entire Warsaw area and followed north into Eastern Elkhart County and Western LaGrange County all the way to the border with Michigan. This district takes in the southeastern section of Warsaw, all of Wabash County, and even parts of the outskirts of the City of Marion. Wolkins really doesn't know many people in this district. He could be vulnerable to a primary challenger from Wabash County. However, either way, this district is SOLID REPUBLICAN
District 19: Incumbent: Shelli VanDenburgh, appointed 2007, Obama 49.6, McCain 49.4, Black 5.2, Hispanic 8.8
Despite most of the population in Lake County being in the north, the county seat is in the center of the county, in Crown Point, meaning the County Courthouse is there. This meant the only place for early voting in Lake County was in Crown Point, unless all three County Election Board members (in Indiana, this an appointee of both party chairs, plus the County Clerk) gave an okay for satellite locations. The GOP member voted no, but Democrats opened up two additional sites in Hammond and Gary anyway. The GOP sued, but the State Supreme Court went along with the Democrats.
This district is centered on Crown Point and also takes in about half of the Town of Hobart. This district is a much cleaner shape than the old version, which was in four counties. Shelli VanDenburgh took this seat when Rep. Bob Kuzman resigned to pursue another career. He held the seat despite its Republican lean, and so has VanDenburgh. In fact, she won by over 2,000 votes in 2010. Despite the closeness of the presidential race here, redistricting did not change the overall political numbers here too much. McCain did less than one point better than in the old district. It lost some Democratic precincts in Porter County, but lost Republican precincts in the far south of Lake County. It picked up half of Hobart and the rest of Crown Point. A Democrat can win here and hold onto the seat for a while. However, they have to continually work to keep it and it will never be completely safe. This district currently is LIKELY DEMOCRAT.
District 20: Incumbents: Tom Dermody (R), elected 2006, Nancy Dembowski (D), elected 2006, Obama 54.1, McCain 44.3, Black 1.6, Hispanic 5.6
Both of these candidates are used to winning in tough districts in tough years and both defeated incumbents to get here. Dermody defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Mary Kay Budak in 2006 and managed to hold the seat despite the unpopularity of Mitch Daniels. Nancy Dembowski, then the Mayor of Knox, in Starke County, was appointed to the State Senate in 2002 when Sen. Bill Alexa was appointed a Judge. She lost in the GOP landslide in 2004, due in large part to her loss in Porter County, which was not in House District 17, where she ran in 2006 and defeated GOP Rep. Steve Heim, where she won strong margins in Starke and LaPorte Counties. Dembowski also has close ties to the United Steelworkers, where her late husband was a member. They have an extremely large amount of power in this district, as does organized labor. The push for right to work legislation will play here about as well as the clap. Before I looked closely at the old map, I had thought Dermody represented the non Michigan City parts of LaPorte County, but he did not have many precincts in the City of LaPorte and he had most of Pulaski County. This district is all of the City of LaPorte and most of Starke County. It TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRAT.
District 21: Incumbent: Tim Wesco (R), McCain 51.3, Obama 47.9, Black 9.9, Hispanic 15.0
Wesco won the open seat that was vacated by Jackie Walorski when she ran against Joe Donnelly. He is from St. Joseph County. Most of the population of the old district was there. The new district is largely in Elkhart County, and not nearly as Republican as his old one. For all of the GOP patting themselves on the back for their redistricting plan being so fair and not splitting cities unnecessarily, that is exactly what they did with the City of Elkhart. A compact, district of the city would have been close to a 60% Obama district. They did not do that. They split Elkhart in half. The danger for Wesco is that he is on the extreme right, is not an Elkhart resident, and is in a district that only voted for McCain by 3 points. While Democrats have not been a large factor in countywide politics in Elkhart County, they have been able to compete in city elections in Elkhart and Goshen. A strong Democrat from the City of Elkhart could potentially give Wesco a run for his money. That person has not emerged yet, so this district is LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
District 22: Incumbent: Rebecca Kubacki (R), elected 2010, McCain 67.6, Obama 31.2, Black 0.6, Hispanic 7.4
This was the strongest McCain district in all of Indiana. Kubacki was elected in 2010 by defeated fellow Republican Bill Ruppel (1992-2002 in the House) in the primary that was considered not conservative enough. She was aided in the end by $40,000 from the Chamber of Commerce and won 54/46. The general election was a breeze in this heavily GOP district. She will likely have this seat for as long as she wants it. This district is SOLID REPUBLICAN.
District 48: Incumbent: Tim Neese (R), elected 2002, McCain 51.7, Obama 47.4, Black 6.0, Hispanic 10.6
If I were Tim Neese, I would be worried. In the last two elections, two Republican incumbents from this area were defeated because they were not conservative enough. Add to that, this district is not as Republican as it was before. The heavily Democratic precincts in the City of Elkhart were once in Rep. Craig Fry's district. They are now split between Districts 21 and 48. This district also lost its heavily Republican precincts in Harris Township in St. Joseph County. While District 48 did gain a few lightly populated precincts around Bristol in Washington Township, the bulk of the new voters here are in the City of Elkhart. Neese has a delicate balancing act. He has to placate the conservative base, while not going so far to the right as to make himself vulnerable in the fall. This district is LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
District 49: Incumbent: Wes Culver (R), elected 2008, McCain 58.9, Obama 40.3, Black 1.3, Hispanic 16.6
Wes Culver won in 2008 by defeating moderate Republican Rep. John Ulmer in the primary. The new District 49 still nearly as Republican as its former version. There is not much more to say here. It is a Goshen based district, with a growing Hispanic population, but Elkhart County has always been Republican. Democrats have a better shot at the seats around the City of Elkhart than here. This seat is SOLID REPUBLICAN.
I thought it would be helpful to keep a running total on the districts I have discussed:
SOLID DEMOCRAT (14): 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 43, 61, 71, 77
LIKELY DEMOCRAT (4): 19, 42, 66, 69
LEAN DEMOCRAT (1): 5,
TOSSUP/TILT DEM (2): 20, 45
TOSSUP (5): 15, 56, 60, 74, 76
TOSSUP/TILT REP (2): 62, 75
LEAN REPUBLICAN (4): 4, 46, 70, 72
LIKELY REPUBLICAN (7): 11, 21, 48, 55, 59, 64, 73
SOLD REPUBLICAN (12): 16, 17, 18, 22, 44, 49, 57, 63, 65, 67, 68, 78