I published another map awhile ago that didn't have the exact data, but now here we go with the numbers! This map should maintain at least a 12-5-1 GOP majority, a pretty good map for the PA GOP considering the state went 54% for Obama. I eliminated Critz's district, which everyone expects to happen. I also made it vulnerable enough that a Republican could overtake whomever wins the primary between Altmire and Critz. I'd say the Democrat would be slightly favored, especially since both held on last year in a terrible year in R-leaning districts.
The PA GOP would be dumb not to do something like this. I think Fitzpatrick's and some other seats might flip eventually, but this is a perfect map for the IMO.
This map strengthens every single Republican(!) who needs it. It really only hurts Platts, but his "moderate" profile should keep him in what is still a VERY Republican district. I bring Meehan, Gerlach, and Fitzpatrick down to a (probable) R-leaning PVI. Erie is completely sunk by putting all of Butler County and some very red Pittsburgh suburbs.
Ironically, the map helps keep Holden's seat blue. It's still anchored in Schuylkill County but also contains all of Reading, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre. That helps Gerlach, Pitts, and Barletta. It also helps Dent by allowing him to absorb some redder precincts in aforementioned Schuylkill. Unfortunately for Blue Dog Holden, a more progressive Democrat could beat the iron man.
And here's the worst part for Dems. It's not only cleaner than the current map, Drexel Hill and Philadelphia are the only town/city split in the entire state!! Philly by necessity, Drexel Hill to accommodate Meehan.
Sorry for the title exuberance. I'm just pumped I get to finally get this up!
Now, district-by-distict maps!
Bob Brady (D-Philadelphia)
83.4% Obama
16.0%
50.4% Black VAP
Not much to see here, but it soaks up some D-leaning suburbs in Delaware.
Chakkah Fattah (D-Philadelphia)
87.2 Obama
12.3 McCain
Still plurality black, but not by much. Safe D.
Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown)
52.9 Obama
46.0 McCain
I added R-leaning precincts in Philly and Montgomery. Still a swing district, but an easier hold.
Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown)
65.5 Obama
33.7 McCain
D-vote sink in the 'burbs. She should be fine.
Pat Meehan (R-Drexel Hill)
52.3 Obama
46.9 McCain
Now definitely R-leaning, a significant step back for Dems. Still winnable, but Lancaster exurbs make this pretty tough, especially against the moderate-seeming Meehan.
Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland Township)
52.7 Obama
46.3 McCain
Also now a definite R-lean, Gerlach also enjoys Lancaster 'burbs to help.
Charlie Dent (R-Allentown)
Obama 55.5
McCain 43.2
I'd be most concerned about this district after Fitzpatrick, but Dent has won and now is more R-leaning.
Tom Marino (R-Lycoming Township)
Obama 43.0
McCain 55.8
Now super safe, I can't see how a D could win this.
Tim Holden (D-St. Clair)
Obama 60.4
McCain 38.4
Vote sink! Look at the intro.
Lou Barletta (R-Hazleton)
Obama 43.5
McCain 55.3
Permanently R, Barletta would love this.
Joe Pitts (R-Lancaster)
Obama 45.4
McCain 53.6
Even though he loses a whole lot of R suburbs, he loses Reading, making the district really super duper safe.
Glenn Thompson (R-Howard Township)
Obama 44.4
McCain 54.2
I help Thompson a little, not that he needs it.
Todd Platts (R-York)
Obama 45.9
McCain 53.0
I added Harrisburg to allow Holden to take Scranton. Still, Platts may enjoy a district a little more D.
Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg)
Obama 41.4
McCain 57.3
I eliminate the Murtha district without getting Shuster upset. #win
Mike Kelly (R-Butler)
Obama 46.6
McCain 52.1
Concentrated more on the Pittsburgh 'burbs, Erie no longer has much influence there.
Jason Altmire (D-McCandless) and Mark Critz (D-Johnstown)
Obama 47.1
McCain 51.8
Takes up some historically blue areas, but it's trending R, and whoever wins will have to face that reality for quite some time.
Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair)
Obama 43.3
McCain 55.7
Safe R, doesn't change much.
Mike Doyle (D-Penn Hills)
Obama 66.9
McCain 30.2
Safe D, has to expand for population.