Karl Rove predicted over the weekend that Sarah Palin is running for president. A top tea bagger poobah said essentially the same thing today.
If she does in fact run, I think she'll only underscore several important problems plaguing the far right/tea bagger consortium.
1. Tea baggers have a serious disconnect with reality. Polls continue to show the Tea Party steadily losing support. They are moving past their sell-by date. Yet the tea bagger faction continues to peddle the retreaded talking point that their strength is only growing. For people who think they're savvy to a free market, they're ignoring their market -- and make no mistake about it; politics is about marketing. They're allowing a clap-your-hands-and-wish mentality to blind them to reality. A free market mentality means you must constantly adapt and evolve to reflect the wishes of the marketplace. The tea baggers are ignoring that fundamental principal.
2. Tea baggers' narcissism trumps common sense. If people like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Sarah Palin had political vision, they would agree quietly among themselves who would be "the candidate," and then all others would work to support him or her. Instead, they'll all be in the mix, squabbling over the drumstick. If Palin enters the race, she's only pull votes away from Perry or Bachmann. She will not pull anything substantial from the more moderate GOP spectrum. So instead of putting movement or ideology first, they're putting self first. "I want to be President." "No, I want to be President." "I said it first."
3. They're fatally ignoring the all-important moderates. Neither the left nor the right in this country can win a Presidential election without appealing to the moderates in the middle. Some 35 percent always vote Republican. Some 35 percent always vote Democrat. The middle 30 percent decides the race. The tea baggers act like the middle isn't even there. They keep playing to their base all the while further alienating the middle. Charlie Cook wrote a salient analysis about this the other day. He said, "Republican voters are going to have to choose between their hearts and their heads. Do they want to nominate someone who projects the dominate philosophy, energy, and spirit of the party and run a high risk of losing, or do they go with their heads, compromising (yes, that dirty word) that energy and go with someone who might win a majority of the independent votes?"
If a Tea Party candidate does not end up winning the 2012 Republican nomination, I wouldn't be surprised if the faction runs a third-party slate. That would be suicidal. The Bull Moose Party did this in 1912 and handed the White House to the Democrats in the process.