---crossposted from RRH---
Wow, this was a lot of work. I'm glad to present my alternative proposal for how to redistrict the Cali Assembly. First, a couple of summary statistics:
Out of the 80 districts, just 19 (!) went for McCain, but 29 for Whitman. Lots of swing areas here. Quickly browsing over the districts (I haven't written the analysis yet) I would expect the map to look roughly 55-25ish in a normal year, but with a pretty low GOP floor in Dem wave years.
VRA-wise, the structure is the following:
17 Hispanic-majority districts by VAP (even though not all of them might hold up under CVAP), 2 Asian majority seats, 1 Black majority seat, 24 crossover majority-minority districts.
I've never split up a redistricting diary into several parts, but the size of this one makes that probably necessary and even desirable. Otherwise too many things get overlooked.
Let's start with the Norcal districts.
Here's a regional shot for context.
AD-01
Obama 47.1 %, McCain 52.9 %
Brown 45.4 %, Whitman 54.6 %
White 78 %, Hispanic 10 %, Asian 2 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 81 %, HispanicVAP 9 %, AsianVAP 2 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Jim Nielsen (R) 50%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 38%, Daniel Logue (R) 12%, Ted Gaines (R) 0%, Ted Gaines (R) 0%
Wally Herger (R) 51%, Mike Thompson (D) 35%, Tom McClintock (R) 14%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 0%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 0%
Okay, what do we have here-- a full set of stats, automatically generated by Excel (including punctuation and even the html codes for the bold headers).
In order, we have:
-2008 Presidential Election results
-2010 Gubernatorial Election results
-Racial data both by total population and adult population
-Information on the current Legislative and Congressional Districts in which the territory of the new district lies. The legislative stats tell us who'd run here and who'd win primaries if they happen, while the Congressional stats are there to give a bit of a face to the district for the people not from California.
As for this district, I know it's controversial to draw it East-West rather than North-South. Same for the 2nd district. But it really enhances the rest of the map, I think-- and really, even if they don't like each other up there, they're still a CoI of people who are usually ignored by the people in the cities.
This district should be safe Republican for Jim Nielsen, I cannot imagine Wes Chesbro running here, it'd be a suicidal run.
AD-02
Obama 49.7 %, McCain 50.3 %
Brown 45.6 %, Whitman 54.4 %
White 73 %, Hispanic 18 %, Asian 3 %, Black 1 %
WhiteVAP 77 %, HispanicVAP 15 %, AsianVAP 3 %, BlackVAP 1 %
Daniel Logue (R) 58%, Jim Nielsen (R) 28%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 14%, Ted Gaines (R) 0%, Ted Gaines (R) 0%
Wally Herger (R) 66%, Tom McClintock (R) 20%, Mike Thompson (D) 14%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 0%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 0%
This is now definitely a Eastern NorCal seat, with just 14% of its territory in the current Coastal configuration (Thompson/Chesbro).
If the Republicans can't hold this kind of district they're really in trouble.
Safe R for Dan Logue.
Logue now lives in the middle of his district (Chico), not as awkwardly on the border as in his current 3rd.
AD-03
This district contains the area north of Sacramento, plus Yuba City, which lies on the border of Sutter and Yuba Counties.
Obama 43.2 %, McCain 56.8 %
Brown 40 %, Whitman 60 %
White 68 %, Hispanic 18 %, Asian 8 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 72 %, HispanicVAP 15 %, AsianVAP 8 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Ted Gaines (R) 61%, Jim Nielsen (R) 20%, Daniel Logue (R) 15%, Richard Pan (D) 4%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Tom McClintock (R) 68%, Wally Herger (R) 32%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
One of the most Republican areas in the state and safe for Ted Gaines.
AD-4
Obama 73.5 %, McCain 26.5 %
Brown 73.6 %, Whitman 26.4 %
White 34 %, Hispanic 29 %, Asian 19 %, Black 13 %
WhiteVAP 39 %, HispanicVAP 25 %, AsianVAP 19 %, BlackVAP 13 %
Roger Dickinson (D) 83%, Richard Pan (D) 16%, Ted Gaines (R) 1%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Doris O. Matsui (D) 98%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 2%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Sacramento needs to be split, of course, but I think this is a pretty sensitive way to do it. Roger Dickinson should be happy with this seat. It's a White plurality crossover seat, but with the minority groups too splintered to mount a primary challenge to anybody.
Safe D
AD-5
Obama 53.2 %, McCain 46.8 %
Brown 53.4 %, Whitman 46.6 %
White 65 %, Hispanic 17 %, Asian 6 %, Black 7 %
WhiteVAP 69 %, HispanicVAP 14 %, AsianVAP 7 %, BlackVAP 6 %
Richard Pan (D) 61%, Ted Gaines (R) 19%, Alyson Huber (D) 19%, Roger Dickinson (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Daniel E. Lungren (R) 75%, Doris O. Matsui (D) 24%, Tom McClintock (R) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Richard Pan would be favored in this district-- but he doesn't live in it. The current 5th is a pretty gerrymandered mess, but it actually seems to be a Republican Gerrymander looking at how it's just 52% Obama. If he moves, then he'd probably win this as it's more Democratic and heavily trending blue-- one of only two districts or so where Brown OVERperformed Obama.
If Pan doesn't move it's probably a Toss-Up that leans D looking at Brown's performance.
AD-6
Obama 45.5 %, McCain 54.5 %
Brown 42.1 %, Whitman 57.9 %
White 81 %, Hispanic 11 %, Asian 2 %, Black 1 %
WhiteVAP 84 %, HispanicVAP 10 %, AsianVAP 2 %, BlackVAP 1 %
Kristin Olsen (R) 35%, Ted Gaines (R) 34%, Alyson Huber (D) 17%, Daniel Logue (R) 14%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Tom McClintock (R) 57%, Jeff Denham (R) 22%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 18%, Howard P. McKeon (R) 3%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
This district-- which is currently quite clearly a CoI-- is gerrymandered into four parts under the existing map. Now that it's its own district there should be an interesting R primary. It's the only thing that counts-- the Democrats don't have much of a presence here. None of the Assemblymembers that currently represent parts of the district would be likely to run here.
Safe R regardless.
AD-7
Obama 54.6 %, McCain 45.4 %
Brown 54.3 %, Whitman 45.7 %
White 46 %, Hispanic 18 %, Asian 20 %, Black 10 %
WhiteVAP 50 %, HispanicVAP 16 %, AsianVAP 20 %, BlackVAP 10 %
Alyson Huber (D) 44%, Richard Pan (D) 24%, Joan Buchanan (D) 23%, Roger Dickinson (D) 9%, Mariko Yamada (D) 0%
Daniel E. Lungren (R) 67%, Doris O. Matsui (D) 26%, Tom McClintock (R) 6%, John Garamendi (D) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
The PVI here (D+1) is deceivingly low.
1) ALl of the territory is represented by Democrats now.
2) It's trending blue. Let's define something called CaPVI which is the PVI of the district compared to the mean of California, not the nation. Its CaPVI for the 2008 election would then be R+8, its CaPVI for the 2010 Gubernatorial election just R+3.5. Democrats can win districts 3.5 points more Republican than California most of the time. That's roughly MI-OR-NJ territory.
Since Huber's probably running for Congress, there wouldn't be an incumbent. I'd consider this a Lean D seat.
AD-8
Obama 75.1 %, McCain 24.9 %
Brown 68.2 %, Whitman 31.8 %
White 66 %, Hispanic 25 %, Asian 4 %, Black 1 %
WhiteVAP 71 %, HispanicVAP 20 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 1 %
Wesley Chesbro (D) 44%, Michael Allen (D) 40%, Jared Huffman (D) 16%, Jim Nielsen (R) 0%, Jim Nielsen (R) 0%
Lynn C. Woolsey (D) 70%, Mike Thompson (D) 30%, Wally Herger (R) 0%, Wally Herger (R) 0%, Wally Herger (R) 0%
This district, heavily Democratic, would probably feature an intense primary between the Chesbro (NorCal) and the Allen/Huffman (Santa Rosa) sections of the district.
Among all voters there's a 56-44 majority for the Santa Rosa part, among Obama voters 53.5-46.5, among Brown voters 52-48.
My bet is primary turnout would probably higher in the (white) NorCal part of the seat. Still, Michael Allen, despite being a freshman, is the Assistant Majority Leader. I think he could probably muscle Chesbro out, defeat him, or force him to run in an uphill fight for AD-01.
Safe D no matter what happens.
AD-9
Obama 63.2 %, McCain 36.8 %
Brown 60.3 %, Whitman 39.7 %
White 48 %, Hispanic 28 %, Asian 11 %, Black 7 %
WhiteVAP 52 %, HispanicVAP 24 %, AsianVAP 12 %, BlackVAP 7 %
Mariko Yamada (D) 86%, Michael Allen (D) 10%, Jim Nielsen (R) 3%, Richard Pan (D) 0%, Roger Dickinson (D) 0%
Mike Thompson (D) 44%, John Garamendi (D) 28%, George Miller (D) 21%, Wally Herger (R) 5%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 2%
Except for the pretty empty parts in Napa County, this district is almost identical to the current 8th district. Yamada should be just fine here.
This is a majority-minority district among all inhabitants, but Whites are a strong plurality and VAP majority.
Safe D
Now, let's move on to the Bay Area.
AD-10
Obama 76.1 %, McCain 23.9 %
Brown 69.4 %, Whitman 30.6 %
White 68 %, Hispanic 21 %, Asian 6 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 71 %, HispanicVAP 18 %, AsianVAP 6 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Jared Huffman (D) 77%, Michael Allen (D) 23%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Lynn C. Woolsey (D) 74%, Mike Thompson (D) 26%, Wally Herger (R) 0%, Wally Herger (R) 0%, Wally Herger (R) 0%
This district explains a lot of the other district's shapes-- I REALLY didn't want to cross from Marin into San Francisco County.
Jaref Huffman should be fine in this district.
AD-11
Obama 68.5 %, McCain 31.5 %
Brown 65.1 %, Whitman 34.9 %
White 38 %, Hispanic 29 %, Asian 15 %, Black 14 %
WhiteVAP 42 %, HispanicVAP 25 %, AsianVAP 16 %, BlackVAP 14 %
Susan Bonilla (D) 40%, Michael Allen (D) 27%, Joan Buchanan (D) 22%, Mariko Yamada (D) 11%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
George Miller (D) 51%, John Garamendi (D) 37%, Jerry McNerney (D) 10%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 2%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Of course you still have to cross the Sound somewhere, but I thought this is a good place to do so. The wedge into the district is, of course, Sacramento County, otherwise it'd look really compact.
The Southern part of the district has a larger part of the population, and that's where Susan Bonilla is from. She should be able to take this district-- if she moves into it from Concord, that is.
AD-12
Obama 64.5 %, McCain 35.5 %
Brown 56.7 %, Whitman 43.3 %
White 63 %, Hispanic 16 %, Asian 15 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 66 %, HispanicVAP 14 %, AsianVAP 15 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Joan Buchanan (D) 49%, Susan Bonilla (D) 39%, Nancy Skinner (D) 12%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
John Garamendi (D) 56%, George Miller (D) 23%, Jerry McNerney (D) 21%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
This seat is essentially all of the Concord metro, which is currently split three-ways. That's unnecessary.
The seat is safely Democratic. Should there be a primary between the two Concord Assemblywomen here, then Joan Buchanan should have a definite advantage here, I think. The partisan breakdown of the district is relatively uniform within it, so Buchanan's advantage among all voters does indeed translate into a roughly similar advantage among Democrats.
AD-13
Obama 86.5 %, McCain 13.5 %
Brown 83.3 %, Whitman 16.7 %
White 40 %, Hispanic 22 %, Asian 18 %, Black 15 %
WhiteVAP 43 %, HispanicVAP 19 %, AsianVAP 20 %, BlackVAP 15 %
Nancy Skinner (D) 79%, Susan Bonilla (D) 16%, Sandré Swanson (D) 5%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
George Miller (D) 47%, Barbara Lee (D) 37%, John Garamendi (D) 15%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
This super-liberal district is mostly identical to the current AD-13, except for adding NW Contra Costa and not tapping into Concord. Nancy Skinner should be fine here.
AD-14
Obama 79.4 %, McCain 20.6 %
Brown 76.6 %, Whitman 23.4 %
White 24 %, Hispanic 18 %, Asian 51 %, Black 4 %
WhiteVAP 26 %, HispanicVAP 16 %, AsianVAP 51 %, BlackVAP 4 %
Fiona Ma (D) 78%, Jerry Hill (D) 18%, Tom Ammiano (D) 4%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Jackie Speier (D) 54%, Nancy Pelosi (D) 46%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
The old 12th district (Fiona Ma) adds in Daly City and loses around 30-40% Asian areas to become Asian-majority. Is that VRA-relevant? No. Due to the low citizenship rates of Hispanics you'd probably need at least a 58-60% Asian seat to even start thinking about if it might be a majority Asian-seat among Citizens. And even then it would be very unlikely that it is one.
But still. It shores up Ma against a primary from someone who's white. I wouldn't bet against whites being more than 35% of the seat's citizen population. In the old seat they may have been a plurality.
AD-15
Obama 88.4 %, McCain 11.6 %
Brown 83.6 %, Whitman 16.4 %
White 54 %, Hispanic 14 %, Asian 23 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 55 %, HispanicVAP 13 %, AsianVAP 23 %, BlackVAP 5 %
Tom Ammiano (D) 87%, Fiona Ma (D) 13%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Nancy Pelosi (D) 92%, Jackie Speier (D) 8%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Tom Ammiano stays safe in Pelosi's territory. No big story here.
AD-16
Obama 73.8 %, McCain 26.2 %
Brown 67.5 %, Whitman 32.5 %
White 48 %, Hispanic 23 %, Asian 21 %, Black 4 %
WhiteVAP 51 %, HispanicVAP 20 %, AsianVAP 22 %, BlackVAP 4 %
Jerry Hill (D) 73%, Rich Gordon (D) 20%, Tom Ammiano (D) 6%, Fiona Ma (D) 1%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Jackie Speier (D) 77%, Anna G. Eshoo (D) 17%, Nancy Pelosi (D) 6%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Jerry Hill is fine, and adds Redwood City to his district. The tendril (if you can even call it that, even that part is pretty compact) into San Francisco County is necessary to make the Asian district.
AD-17
Obama 74.2 %, McCain 25.8 %
Brown 70.9 %, Whitman 29.1 %
White 18 %, Hispanic 49 %, Asian 27 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 22 %, HispanicVAP 44 %, AsianVAP 29 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Nora Campos (D) 78%, Jim Beall Jr. (D) 20%, Paul Fong (D) 2%, Luis Alejo (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Zoe Lofgren (D) 90%, Michael M. Honda (D) 10%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
To elect a San Jose Hispanic, I combined all the Hispanic areas there. It's not quite a Hispanic-majority seat, but given the large Asian presence there (and, by extension, the weak White presence), I think Nora Campos should be easily elected here.
AD-18
Obama 71.8 %, McCain 28.2 %
Brown 65.5 %, Whitman 34.5 %
White 21 %, Hispanic 18 %, Asian 53 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 24 %, HispanicVAP 17 %, AsianVAP 53 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Bob Wieckowski (D) 84%, Jim Beall Jr. (D) 9%, Paul Fong (D) 5%, Nora Campos (D) 1%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Fortney Pete Stark (D) 69%, Michael M. Honda (D) 30%, Zoe Lofgren (D) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Bob Wieckowski won a primary against an Asian candidate by 2,000 votes in a seat that's about 5% less Asian. He might be in trouble here, but given the fact that he's now an incumbent I think he'll hang on. Maybe an Asian Latin American would be needed to primary him.
AD-19
Obama 88.1 %, McCain 11.9 %
Brown 86 %, Whitman 14 %
White 30 %, Hispanic 23 %, Asian 20 %, Black 22 %
WhiteVAP 33 %, HispanicVAP 20 %, AsianVAP 21 %, BlackVAP 22 %
Sandré Swanson (D) 84%, Mary Hayashi (D) 8%, Nancy Skinner (D) 5%, Bob Wieckowski (D) 2%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Barbara Lee (D) 84%, Fortney Pete Stark (D) 16%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
This is probably a candidate for "most diverse seat", as Whites, Hispanics, Asians and Blacks all make up over 20% of the population here. Both the Congresswoman representing this area in Congress (Lee) and the guy representing the area in the Assembly (Swanson) are black, and I don't think a primary against Swanson has many prospects, as he's liberal, and there's no racial group that's strong enough for a racial challenge. In an open seat this area could easily elect someone who's White though, less likely Asian or Hispanic.
AD-20
Obama 72.6 %, McCain 27.4 %
Brown 67.7 %, Whitman 32.3 %
White 33 %, Hispanic 29 %, Asian 24 %, Black 10 %
WhiteVAP 37 %, HispanicVAP 26 %, AsianVAP 25 %, BlackVAP 10 %
Mary Hayashi (D) 88%, Bob Wieckowski (D) 9%, Joan Buchanan (D) 3%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Fortney Pete Stark (D) 58%, Jerry McNerney (D) 22%, Barbara Lee (D) 18%, John Garamendi (D) 2%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Alameda is interesting in that Oakland, Hayward and Fremont all deserve to be center of one assembly district, but neither is quite big enough to completely fill one. This is the Hayward-based seat, and Mary Hayashi should be okay in it. I think it's noteworthy that the neighboring Asian seat elects somebody who's white, and this white plurality seat elects an Asian. The Bay Area is certainly not color-blind, but it's on a good way.
AD-21
Obama 75.8 %, McCain 24.2 %
Brown 67.7 %, Whitman 32.3 %
White 45 %, Hispanic 22 %, Asian 27 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 48 %, HispanicVAP 19 %, AsianVAP 27 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Rich Gordon (D) 52%, Paul Fong (D) 46%, Jerry Hill (D) 1%, Bob Wieckowski (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Anna G. Eshoo (D) 91%, Michael M. Honda (D) 6%, Zoe Lofgren (D) 3%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Finally something exciting again! This area has been substantially reconfigured and cleaned of the gerrymander that is AD-24 now, and thus Assemblymen Rich Gordon, Paul Fong and Jim Beall Jr. will have to duke it out for two seats.
This is the first place where a primary could happen, but as Paul Fong lives in Cupertino and represents a bit more territory there I do not think he would run here. He would be at a substantial disadvantage among Democrats, as many of his constituents in this area are Republican. And Asians, which means low turn-out. Fong currently represents a seat that's about 42% Asian, the new seats are somewhat less Asian than that. But there's no VRA concern here, and my districts are more compact than the current map. The compact Asian community here is in Cupertino, and that's been kept together.
AD-22
Obama 69.8 %, McCain 30.2 %
Brown 61 %, Whitman 39 %
White 46 %, Hispanic 15 %, Asian 33 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 50 %, HispanicVAP 14 %, AsianVAP 32 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Paul Fong (D) 47%, Jim Beall Jr. (D) 44%, Rich Gordon (D) 9%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Michael M. Honda (D) 74%, Anna G. Eshoo (D) 18%, Zoe Lofgren (D) 8%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Despite Fong's plurality among people in general in this seat, Beall represents more voters (due to low Asian turnout) and more Democrats. Still, I could see Fong winning here with an endorsement by Honda and high turnout among Asians in Cupertino.
It would be an interesting race for sure.
AD-23
Obama 73.2 %, McCain 26.8 %
Brown 65.9 %, Whitman 34.1 %
White 55 %, Hispanic 32 %, Asian 8 %, Black 1 %
WhiteVAP 60 %, HispanicVAP 28 %, AsianVAP 8 %, BlackVAP 1 %
Bill Monning (D) 54%, Luis Alejo (D) 25%, Rich Gordon (D) 12%, Jim Beall Jr. (D) 9%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Sam Farr (D) 41%, Michael M. Honda (D) 19%, Anna G. Eshoo (D) 16%, Zoe Lofgren (D) 15%, Jerry McNerney (D) 9%
We're leaving the Bay area here, but it's still on the Bay area screenshot, so I'll write the next few districts up as well. Monning should be safe here.
AD-24
Obama 60.8 %, McCain 39.2 %
Brown 54.7 %, Whitman 45.3 %
White 42 %, Hispanic 29 %, Asian 21 %, Black 4 %
WhiteVAP 46 %, HispanicVAP 26 %, AsianVAP 21 %, BlackVAP 4 %
Cathleen Galgiani (D) 23%, Joan Buchanan (D) 21%, Bill Berryhill (R) 20%, Nora Campos (D) 13%, Jim Beall Jr. (D) 11%
Jerry McNerney (D) 43%, Zoe Lofgren (D) 30%, John Garamendi (D) 18%, Michael M. Honda (D) 5%, Dennis A. Cardoza (D) 4%
From a CoI perspective this is probably the worst district in the map, but even this is defensible. First of all, it's pretty much a district that combines the non-urban areas just out of the Bay area. But the rationale for drawing was more that part of San Jose still needed to be attached to something, and to attach it to Stanislaus/Merced County seemed to be a worse option as these clearly are a well-defined Community of Interest.
This would feature an open seat primary, as I do not think that anybody would be interested in running here.
This seat isn't as safe for Democrats as all the other districts featured before, but a district that Brown took by almost double digits in 2010 should still be safe for the blue team.
AD-25
Obama 56.8 %, McCain 43.2 %
Brown 53.9 %, Whitman 46.1 %
White 32 %, Hispanic 41 %, Asian 15 %, Black 8 %
WhiteVAP 38 %, HispanicVAP 36 %, AsianVAP 16 %, BlackVAP 8 %
Bill Berryhill (R) 34%, Alyson Huber (D) 30%, Cathleen Galgiani (D) 27%, Joan Buchanan (D) 10%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Jerry McNerney (D) 56%, Dennis A. Cardoza (D) 40%, Daniel E. Lungren (R) 5%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Under the current map there's a weird gerrymander where Lodi (just north of Stockton) and rural Amador County are attached to urban Sacramento. Here Lodi gets combined with its natural fit in Stockton. It speaks against the current map that there is currently no clear incumbent here, in such a clear-cut CoI, as the only Assemblymember who lives in Stockton, Cathleen Galgiani, is for some reason representing mostly Merced County with a tendril into Stockton.
I have no idea what Galgiani would do, she lives here, but her old district much more closely resembles the new 27th.
Politically, I would characterize this as a Likely Democratic seat as it's a D+3 federally, and also voted for Brown by more than just a tiny margin.
AD-26
Obama 49.8 %, McCain 50.2 %
Brown 45.8 %, Whitman 54.2 %
White 49 %, Hispanic 39 %, Asian 6 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 55 %, HispanicVAP 34 %, AsianVAP 6 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Kristin Olsen (R) 57%, Bill Berryhill (R) 43%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Jeff Denham (R) 55%, Dennis A. Cardoza (D) 40%, Jerry McNerney (D) 5%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Similarly to AD-25, it is surprising that this district does not already exist as straightforward as it is. Kristin Olsen should have an advantage here, if Berryhill even runs. He does not live in the district.
In the general election this should be a Likely Republican seat.
AD-27
Obama 52.6 %, McCain 47.4 %
Brown 47.2 %, Whitman 52.8 %
White 31 %, Hispanic 58 %, Asian 5 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 36 %, HispanicVAP 53 %, AsianVAP 5 %, BlackVAP 4 %
Cathleen Galgiani (D) 58%, Linda Halderman (R) 16%, Kristin Olsen (R) 13%, Bill Berryhill (R) 9%, Henry Perea (D) 3%
Dennis A. Cardoza (D) 65%, Jeff Denham (R) 32%, Jim Costa (D) 3%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
The last seat in today's installment, this is a classic example of a Toss-Up seat. It was about an EVEN to R+1 seat in 2008, and Whitman won it by 5 points in the GOP wave of 2010 (though I guess you could argue it wasn't a wave, really).
I think this seat has a small GOP tilt to it, but I'm not sure what would happen if Galgiani ran here. She doesn't really belong here, as she's from Stockton, but she represents most of the district. Her current district is 61% Obama and she won 58% in it in 2010, so she would probably have barely hung on in 2010 here.
I don't know. I'll call this a Toss-Up and finish this installment of this (short, I think I'll make this three posts) series here.