The long awaited Redistricting of Arkansas’s State Senate is here.
Before we begin with the districts, a little background to how I got the numbers and how to determine the winner of individual districts:
Partisan numbers were taken from: (statewide percentages)
1) 2010 Land Commissioner - LJ Bryant (D, 47.32%) vs John Thurston (R, 52.68%)
2) 2010 Secretary of State - Pat O’Brien (D, 48.67%) vs Mark Martin (R, 51.33%)
3) 2010 Lieutenant Governor - Shane Broadway (D, 48.95%) vs Mark Darr (R, 51.05%)
4) 2010 Governor - Mike Beebe (D, 64.42%) vs Jim Keet (R, 33.63%)
5) 2010 Senator - Blanche Lincoln (D, 36.95%) vs John Boozman (R, 57.90%)
In addition, an APVI (Arkansas Partisan Voting Index) is attached to each district. This rating factors in partisan data, incumbent strength, political issues, demographics, financial funding, and population distribution.
I would urge you not to just look at the Blanche Lincoln numbers and decide that “you are done” and that the Arkansas Senate is going to fall in spectacular fashion next fall. While it may do so, there are areas like the rest of the US where solid Democrats just didn’t show up in 2010, and then there are areas where Democrats are slowly drifting away from their party. Under the 2001 State Senate map, Republicans were predicting a net gain of 3 to 5 seats. The 2011 State Senate map is more favorable to the Democrats.
It is very hard to know what turnout will be like, or what area will see whites move fastest from or towards (well, I’m probably dreaming here) Democrats. The election is an eternity away, and so my prediction is based off on factors right now. Obama policies and Republican gaffes that will happen over the election year cannot be measured. I also cannot measure this scenario: the typical Democratic voter who enters the ballot box, sees Obama as a Democrat, and then sees their favorite State Senator as a Democrat and refuses to vote for him because of the connection to Obama.
Here’s a background to the State Senate:
After the 2010 elections, Republicans reached their highest point in this legislative body in generations. The chamber now consists of 20 Democrats and 15 Republicans. Every Senate seat is up for reelection in 2012. Senators may serve a maximum of eight years. Paul Bookout of Jonesboro is the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. Ruth Whitaker of Cedarville (Northwest Arkansas) is the Minority Leader.
Some of the partisan data might be up to 1% off due to split precincts and counties that make precinct matching impossible.
Now for the districts:
State Senate District 1, Blue: (R+19): No Incumbent, Safe Republican
84% White, 9% Hispanic
*Thurston 74% (R), Bryant 26% (D)
*Martin 72% (R), O’Brien 28% (D)
*Darr 73% (R), Broadway 27% (D)
*Beebe 50% (D), Keet 49% (R)
*Boozman 77% (R), Lincoln 19% (D)
The booming northwest needed a new district, and the Senate redistricting centers it on Bentonville. This area is very white and very conservative and home to WalMart, and other retail stores. As industry continues to add jobs in this area, watch for this area to continue to explode. Mike Beebe, meanwhile, realized he wasn’t going to be getting a Democrat here, so he drew a district for a moderate Republican, State Representative Tim Summers. There have been no conservative alternatives mentioned so far.
State Senate District 2, Green: (R+16): Kim Hendren, Safe Republican
88% White, 8% Hispanic
*Thurston 70% (R), Bryant 30% (D)
*Martin 68% (R), O’Brien 32% (D)
*Darr 69% (R), Broadway 31% (D)
*Beebe 51% (D), Keet 47% (R)
*Boozman 73% (R), Lincoln 23% (D)
Republican Senate Leader Kim Hendren is retiring this year due to term limits. Hendren, and his inability to corral his caucus into effective messaging is part of the reason why Arkansas Republicans have been so weak for so long. Hendren’s district includes Gravette, Bella Vista, Siloam Springs, and Prairie Grove. In the process, he takes in a lot of mountains, forests, and natural wilderness. Hendren has complained about his district and how it has increased to go south into western Washington County, but in reality, he’s more concerned with making sure his son replaces him. State Representative John Burnett and former State Representative Jim Hendren will battle it out on the Republican side.
State Senate District 3, Purple: (R+14): Cecile Bledsoe (R), Safe Republican
68% White, 26% Hispanic
*Thurston 67% (R), Bryant 32% (D)
*Martin 66% (R), O’Brien 34% (D)
*Darr 68% (R), Broadway 32% (D)
*Beebe 54% (D), Keet 44% (R)
*Boozman 72% (R), Lincoln 24% (D)
Cecil Bledsoe, a Republican, will continue to represent Rogers, parts of Lowell, and the natural wilderness of the Ozarks.
State Senate District 4, Red: (D+5.7): No incumbent, Likely Democratic
85% White, 6% Hispanic
*Thurston 47% (R), Bryant 53% (D)
*Martin 46% (R), O’Brien 54% (D)
*Darr 46% (R), Broadway 54% (D)
*Beebe 69% (D), Keet 28% (R)
*Boozman 50% (R), Lincoln 44% (D)
This district is centered on the reliably liberal city of Fayetteville, a bright spot for the Democrats in ever changing Arkansas. It’s speaks to just how bad Blanche Lincoln was of a candidate that she could not win this district. Many liberal educated voters who voted in 2008 did not in 2010; this is a district where turnout was the reason behind low Democratic turnout and not realignment. Assuming a decent turnout from the college folk, this district should remain in Democratic hands in 2012. State Senator Sue Madison (D), is retiring. State Representative Uvdale Lindsey, a Democrat, will probably run here.
State Senate District 5, Yellow: (R+8.7): Randy Laverty and Ruth Whitaker, Safe Republican
93% White, 5% Hispanic
*Thurston 60% (R), Bryant 40% (D)
*Martin 62% (R), O’Brien 38% (D)
*Darr 61% (R), Broadway 39% (D)
*Beebe 59% (D), Keet 38% (R)
*Boozman 68% (R), Lincoln 27% (D)
Democrat Randy Laverty and Republican Ruth Whitaker are the current incumbents in this district and are term limited. This district incorporates part of Carroll, Madison, Johnson, Franklin, Washington, and Sebastian County. Potential Republicans include State Representative Bryan King and Madison County Judge Frank Weaver. Mike Hathorn, the Democrats nominee for the 3rd congressional district early last decade is a potential candidate. Democrats need to contest this seat; the trends here are slowly in their favor.
State Senate District 6, Aqua: (R+0.6): No incumbent, Tossup/Tilt Democratic
90% White, 10% Hispanic
*Thurston 52% (R), Bryant 48% (D)
*Martin 52% (R), O’Brien 48% (D)
*Darr 53% (R), Broadway 47% (D)
*Beebe 66% (D), Keet 32% (R)
*Boozman 57% (R), Lincoln 34% (D)
Mike Beebe drew this district for Former State Representative and moderate Democrat John Paul Wells of Paris. This district stretches through nominal Republican and Democratic areas of East Central Arkansas taking in Booneville and Clarksville. Wells will need to run up the margins in Paris, in the hispanic areas of Yell County, and not do pathetic in Franklin County. Democrats really need a pickup here, and it is quite possible that who the Republicans pick as their nominee may decide Paul Wells’ fate. A trio of Republican State Representatives are potential candidates: Jon Eubanks, Gary Stubblefield, and George Overbey.
State Senate District 7, Gray: (R+11.8): Bill Pritchard, Safe Republican
70% White, 29% Hispanic
*Thurston 66% (R), Bryant 34% (D)
*Martin 64% (R), O’Brien 36% (D)
*Darr 65% (R), Broadway 35% (D)
*Beebe 55% (D), Keet 43% (R)
*Boozman 69% (R), Lincoln 27% (D)
Incumbent Republican Bill Pritchard’s district exploded in population this decade so compacts to take in only Eastern Washington County including the city of Elkins and Springdale. Pritchard may need to watch his right flank as there is a possibility conservative State Representative Jon Woods may challenge him. When the Fayetteville population explodes into this area, this district will get a lot more Democratic. But that hasn’t happened yet.
State Senate District 8, Bluish-Purple: (R+11.7): Jake Files, Safe Republican
82% White
*Thurston 66% (R), Bryant 34% (D)
*Martin 66% (R), O’Brien 34% (D)
*Darr 65% (R), Broadway 35% (D)
*Beebe 60% (D), Keet 39% (R)
*Boozman 75% (R), Lincoln 24% (D)
Fort Smith is a very conservative city. Republican Jake Files’ district is renovated by the map, as he adds areas in middle Sebastian County like Greenwood, and removes the minority areas of (the only good potential opponent) Democratic State Representative Tracy Pennartz’s district. Coincidence? Files also called the state legislative redistricting process “fair.” and had some kind of communication with Beebe in how his district should be redrawn. Files is a potential contender for a higher office at some point.
State Senate District 9, Light Blue: (R+8.0): Bruce Holland, Likely Republican
75% White, 15% Hispanic
*Thurston 59% (R), Bryant 41% (D)
*Martin 61% (R), O’Brien 38% (D)
*Darr 61% (R), Broadway 39% (D)
*Beebe 62% (D), Keet 36% (R)
*Boozman 69% (R), Lincoln 26% (D)
Incumbent Republican Bruce Holland was really shoved around in redistricting. Holland drops most of his old district and comes out with Van Buren, Barling, Mansfield, Waldron and a tiny sliver (the liberal part) of Fort Smith. Republican Former State Representative Rick Green will primary Holland. Republican State Representative Gary Deffenbaugh might also run. Democratic State Representative Tracy Pennartz will hopefully be able to capitalize on a populist conservative electorate. I’m doubtful though - she currently represents minority areas on the tip of Sebastian County and doesn’t have experience running campaigns in rural areas.
State Senate District 10, Pink: (R+1.5): Larry Teague, Likely Democrat
80% White, 12% Black
*Thurston 53% (R), Bryant 47% (D)
*Martin 51% (R), O’Brien 49% (D)
*Darr 54% (R), Broadway 46% (D)
*Beebe 65% (D), Keet 33% (R)
*Boozman 62% (R), Lincoln 32% (D)
Democrat Larry Teague, who has an iron grip on his Southwestern Arkansas district and legislates in the form of a populist conservative, is the incoming President Pro Tempore of the Arkansas Senate. Arkansas elects the top leader two years before the session begins. Teague’s district expands to take in some rural and extremely conservative areas of northern White County, fills in the lines along Polk County, and takes in Montgomery County. Teague’s popularity comes from constituent services in rural and poor small towns and from Hope, Nashville, and Murfreesboro.
All 15 Senate Republicans were listed as hosts at a fundraiser Teague held in June. This is not the first time that Arkansas legislators have reached across party lines to help their friends (Arkansas is ruled by a conservative coalition rather than a state party). There are no Republican opponents mentioned in this race, and outside of Nate Bell, I don’t think any could really give Teague a challenge. One Republican active in Southwestern politics suggested that Arkansas Republicans may skip this race, and focus on other districts. Of course, that would be weird, because Teague’s district is the second most Republican of any incumbent Democrat. But that’s the Arkansas Republican Party for you.
State Senate District 11, Light Green: (R+4.9): Steve Harrelson, Tossup/Tilts Republican
71% White, 21% Black
*Thurston 56% (R), Bryant 44% (D)
*Martin 58% (R), O’Brien 41% (D)
*Darr 57% (R), Broadway 43% (D)
*Beebe 60% (D), Keet 38% (R)
*Boozman 64% (R), Lincoln 32% (D)
There’s not much you can do to maintain two southwestern Democratic districts - and as such, this one is highly vulnerable to takeover. Texarkana moved sharply toward the right last year, electing former highway chief and Republican Prissy Hickerson to the State House (the seat formally held by Incumbent Steve Harrelson).
Democrat Steve Harrelson, who moved from the House (where he was Majority Leader) to the Senate in 2010, has focused on getting rid of the grocery tax, and educational issues since getting elected. He is very conservative and has had some ethical issues, including going through a messy divorce. Harrelson is a potential party switcher - it wouldn’t be because he is truly a Republican though, but more for political gain.
Harrelson has a long history in the community in Texarkana, but assuming the Republicans run a candidate here (which they didn’t in 2010, otherwise he wouldn’t have been elected), I’m not sure how he survives. Many people feel that this impoverished area has been neglected by politicians - namely Blanche and Obama, who are too interested in national Democratic interests. Harrelson will need a lot of ticket splitting to win.
The one reason this remains at Tossup is I’m skeptical that Republicans will bother to find a candidate. Most Republicans will wait to see if State Representative Prissy Hickerson runs - if she does, she is the immediate Republican frontrunner. Most of the local offices here are still filled by Democrats, and Harrelson could potentially dispose of a no-name.
State Senate District 12, Modest Blue: (D+4.7): Percy Malone, Leans Democratic
67% White, 29% Black
*Thurston 46% (R), Bryant 54% (D)
*Martin 47% (R), O’Brien 53% (D)
*Darr 47% (R), Broadway 53% (D)
*Beebe 69% (D), Keet 29% (R)
*Boozman 54% (R), Lincoln 40% (D)
Democrat Percy Malone, whom my friends in Arkansas have worked for, is retiring because of term limits. Malone’s district takes in Magnolia, Arkdelphia, Gurdon, and Sheridan, while losing the northern Republicans areas of Clark County, and some of Ouachita County. Former State Representative Bruce Maloch, who retired because of term limits in the State House in 2010, is running for the Democrats. Maloch has been a Sunday school teacher at the First Baptist Church of Magnolia. He doesn’t exactly spark fear in me, but Democrats seem pretty confident in him running.
To win, Maloch will need to run up the margins in Arkdelphia, Gurdon, win Magnolia in the single digits, and win Sheridan. Most of the big towns hold the minority population - a key for him will be not getting killed among rural conservative whites. Republicans may run Freshman State Representative Lane Jean (who comes from the same territory as Maloch). If Jean decides to run for Congress, or for reelection to the State House, there is really not any good candidate that comes to mind and Maloch maybe able to sleep through the election.
State Senate District 13, Light Pink: (D+1.0): Mike Fletcher, Leans Democratic
88% White
*Thurston 52% (R), Bryant 48% (D)
*Martin 51% (R), O’Brien 49% (D)
*Darr 44% (R), Broadway 56% (D)
*Beebe 64% (D), Keet 33% (R)
*Boozman 60% (R), Lincoln 34% (D)
Incumbent Democrat Mike Fletcher’s district takes in Hot Springs, Malvern, Benton, and Bauxite. He loses the generally white Montgomery County for minorities in Hot Springs, and expands further into the deep red Little Rock suburbs. Malvern is home to several manufacturing companies. Fletcher was a member of the Arkansas State Police for 36 years prior to his election in 2010. Fletcher has some capacity to self finance and may receive a primary from State Representative Johnnie Roebuck. Roebuck’s main focus is educational issues. She is term limited from the State House. No Republicans have expressed interest publicly or privately in this race.
State Senate District 14, Brownish: (R+7.4): Bill Sample, Safe Republican
88% White
*Thurston 62% (R), Bryant 38% (D)
*Martin 59% (R), O’Brien 41% (D)
*Darr 58% (R), Broadway 42% (D)
*Beebe 59% (D), Keet 39% (R)
*Boozman 65% (R), Lincoln 29% (D)
Suburban Little Rock is the most wealthy part of the state, if one can use wealthy and Arkansas in the same sentence. Sample’s district takes in white areas of Hot Springs, and Hot Springs Village. Sample is an owner of a termite pest control company. Sample has a lot of new area to take in in Saline County, but he should be fine. Sample has sponsored a bill to make sure state governments can’t take guns away in events of emergencies like during Katrina.
State Senate District 15, Orange: (R+1.8): No incumbent, Leans Republican
89% White
*Thurston 54% (R), Bryant 46% (D)
*Martin 52% (R), O’Brien 48% (D)
*Darr 52% (R), Broadway 48% (D)
*Beebe 61% (D), Keet 37% (R)
*Boozman 60% (R), Lincoln 34% (D)
State Senate District 15 takes in Morrilton, Maumelle, and Perryville, stretching from Van Buren County, to Pulaski County. This district is very politically divided - the few precincts from Pulaski and Faulkner County are very conservative, Van Buren and Perry are swing, and Conway is a Democratic county that Democrats (besides Lincoln) won by double digits in 2010. This district is typical in that Blue Dogs who supported Vic Snyder and Blanche Lincoln are now trending away from the Democratic Party. Tim Griffin is also trying to entrench himself in many of the small rural towns outside of Little Rock.
Former State Representative Johnny Hoyt is running for the Democrats. Hoyt ran for a similar looking seat in 2010 and lost. Hoyt won big in Conway County, and narrowly won Perry, while Jason Rapert, the Republican, won Van Buren County. All of the other strong Republican counties were moved out of the district. While Hoyt will do better in this district, I still don’t see how he can win. State Representative and Republican Ed Garner, who has focused on lowering capital gains taxes while he’s been in Little Rock will run. Garner has had some tax-paying issues in the past, voted against school funding for the deaf, and has voted against “sufficient fluoridation of water.” Garner will try to nationalize the race and claim Hoyt is for big government. Either way, this will be one of the marquee races to decide who controls the Senate next year.
State Senate District 16, Deep Green: (R+8.0): Michael Lamoureux, Safe Republican
91% White
*Thurston 60% (R), Bryant 40% (D)
*Martin 61% (R), O’Brien 39% (D)
*Darr 59% (R), Broadway 41% (D)
*Beebe 61% (D), Keet 37% (R)
*Boozman 61% (R), Lincoln 25% (D)
This extremely conservative white district takes in Russellville, and the mountainous Ozarks. Lamoureux is very popular in the Republican Senate caucus, and will likely be the President Pro Tempore if the Democrats lose control and Larry Teague steps down. Lamoureux is very popular and serves on many local councils and boards at home.
State Senate District 17, Dark Purple: (R+12.9): Johnny Key, Safe Republican
97% White
*Thurston 67% (R), Bryant 33% (D)
*Martin 67% (R), O’Brien 33% (D)
*Darr 66% (R), Broadway 34% (D)
*Beebe 57% (D), Keet 40% (R)
*Boozman 68% (R), Lincoln 24% (D)
Johnny Key, who was the author of the “Republican gerrymander” or the “least movement congressional redistricting plan” represents District 17, which covers Mountain Home and three counties in Northern Arkansas: Boone, Marion, and Baxter. This district is incredibly white, and will never support a Democrat unless on the scale of Mike Beebe. Key is safe.
State Senate District 18, Yellow: (R+8.0): Missy Irvin, Safe Republican
97% White
*Thurston 60% (R), Bryant 40% (D)
*Martin 57% (R), O’Brien 43% (D)
*Darr 59% (R), Broadway 41% (D)
*Beebe 59% (D), Keet 39% (R)
*Boozman 62% (R), Lincoln 30% (D)
Missy Irvin’s district becomes a lot safer as she loses most her current district (filled with moderate and conservative Democrats.) Irvin will be representing a new stretch of territory including Heber Springs, Mountain View, Marshall, and rural farmland in between. Irvin will be vulnerable to a primary challenge from State Representative Roy Ragland. In the Senate, Irvin is for a great decrease in corporate taxes, an increase in funding for transportation, privatization, and increased research into alternative energy. Irvin is currently an employee at a Medical Clinic and has deep roots in sales and marketing in the community.
State Senate District 19, Grayish-Green: (R+0.1): David Wyatt, Leans Democratic
95% White
*Thurston 52% (R), Bryant 48% (D)
*Martin 49% (R), O’Brien 51% (D)
*Darr 52% (R), Broadway 48% (D)
*Beebe 63% (D), Keet 34% (R)
*Boozman 56% (R), Lincoln 36% (D)
David Wyatt had a problem. His previous district included way too much of blood red White County (where no Democrat should ever represent), blood red Cleburne County, liberal Jackson County, and moderate Independence County. Wyatt gets a completely redrawn and much safer district centered on Batesville. I’ll defer to RRH’s Son of the South to describe this area’s geography:
Having visited Hardy (Sharp and Fulton Counties) and surrounding areas several times for family vacations and Boy Scout trips, I can say that it's a very white, conservative area that has a lot invested in the tourism industry, mostly for hunters, rafters, and people who just want to escape to the scenic hills for a while. If I had to guess, I would say that if the Spring River areas near the Missouri border aren't already Republican-leaning, they will be soon.
Wyatt is farmer and former judge in Independence County. Wyatt is generally socially conservative with a mixture of populism and moderate economic views. There are no Republicans who are interested in challenging Wyatt. An intriguing possibility would be to have Linda Collins Smith, the recent party switcher, fly in from a nearby district where she lives and run. Collins Smith and Wyatt have the same political views and it would be interesting to see how each portrayed the other. Collins Smith doesn’t have the deep roots to the community that Wyatt does, but considering that Wyatt sits in one of three districts that have a Republican APVI, he has to be concerned.
State Senate District 20, Pink: (D+5.4): Robert Thompson, Likely-Safe Democratic
97% White
*Thurston 46% (R), Bryant 54% (D)
*Martin 48% (R), O’Brien 52% (D)
*Darr 45% (R), Broadway 55% (D)
*Beebe 70% (D), Keet 28% (R)
*Boozman 53% (R), Lincoln 42% (D)
As Democrats took a beating in Arkansas the last few years, Northeastern Arkansas has strayed from the trend. The extremely white and conservative Democratic Greene County supported Shane Broadway by 16 points in 2010, Pat O’Brien by 14 points, LJ Bryant by 14 points, and John Boozman by 0.17%. Elsewhere, this district takes in Pocahontas, and Walnut Ridge.
Robert Thompson is an extremely popular incumbent, the Majority Leader in the State Senate, a rising star in the Democratic Party, a potential candidate for Attorney General in 2014, and a potential candidate for governor. He recently said no to a challenge to Rick Crawford. Thompson resides in Paragould, a business hub of this district and has maintained significant support for his legislation addressing schools, sex abuse, and creation of Drug Courts. Thompson has served on the Paragould Rotary Club and is a member of other local activities. He has written two books, for which he received awards, one on debt slavery in Arkansas, and the other on Paul Van Dalsem, an Arkansas legislator.
Thompson has been named one of five promising legislative newcomers by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, and one of 25 outstanding young professionals in northeast Arkansas. As a legislator, Thompson has combined moderate social positions with center-left economic positions.
In 2012, the only person who could even challenge Thompson would be Linda Collins-Smith. It would be fitting to see her go down in flames after her hideous party switch. Thompson is term limited in 2014.
State Senate District 21, Maroon: (D+2.4): Paul Bookout, Likely Democratic
79% White, 15% Black
*Thurston 50% (R), Bryant 50% (D)
*Martin 53% (R), O’Brien 47% (D)
*Darr 47% (R), Broadway 53% (D)
*Beebe 68% (D), Keet 30% (R)
*Boozman 56% (R), Lincoln 40% (D)
Jonesboro, the business center of East Arkansas, and home to Arkansas State University has started to move away from the Democrats. Nonetheless, Bookout, the current President Pro Tempore, and far and away the best potential candidate to Rick Crawford, remains popular. He is an owner of a funeral home in Jonesboro and will be moving to work as an administrative director for government affairs at St. Bernards Healthcare. No Republicans are considering this race, but State Representative Jon Hubbard, who’s recent claim to fame is protesting the Spanish language version of the Arkansas government website, could run. Bookout is term limited in 2014.
State Senate District 22, Brown: (D+9.6): David Burnett, Likely Democratic
74% White, 22% Black
*Thurston 39% (R), Bryant 61% (D)
*Martin 44% (R), O’Brien 56% (D)
*Darr 43% (R), Broadway 57% (D)
*Beebe 72% (D), Keet 26% (R)
*Boozman 46% (R), Lincoln 49% (D)
Who is counting? This is the first district that Blanche Lincoln has won.
David Burnett’s district takes in Osceola, Blytheville, and Truman. The big changes are the addition of liberal areas of eastern Craighead County. Burnett is a former circuit judge. Burnett was part of the West Memphis Three case, denying new trials for two of the three convicted. Burnett currently serves on many boards, and other community groups. In the Senate, Burnett voted to not use cellphones in school zones and for pro-life legislation. This is a Safe Democratic seat though I kind of want Burnett to face a primary.
State Senate District 23, Light Blue: (D+10.1): Jim Luker, Safe Democratic
73% White, 23% Black
*Thurston 41% (R), Bryant 59% (D)
*Martin 42% (R), O’Brien 58% (D)
*Darr 42% (R), Broadway 58% (D)
*Beebe 74% (D), Keet 25% (R)
*Boozman 48% (R), Lincoln 48% (D)
Jim Luker, a Democrat, will retire because of term limits this year. This district takes in Wynne, Forrest City, Augusta, and Brinkley. Luker is very liberal on both economic issues and social issues. State Representative Jerry Brown is a potential candidate for the Democrats. Because we have to elect moderate and conservative Democrats in the rest of the state, this is one Delta district that Democrats should try to find a liberal to run. It is hard to see how a Republican can win here in 2012.
State Senate District 24, Deep Purple: (D+17.9): Jack Crumbly, Safe Democratic
40% White, 57% Black
*Thurston 35% (R), Bryant 65% (D)
*Martin 33% (R), O’Brien 67% (D)
*Darr 33% (R), Broadway 67% (D)
*Beebe 77% (D), Keet 21% (R)
*Boozman 35% (R), Lincoln 61% (D)
Crumbly has my dislike for complaining that his district’s African American population got too much reduced in redistricting for him to win. Beebe made some last minute changes to appease African Americans interests, packing Crumbly, to hurt other districts. Crumbly now has a district that goes through West Memphis, Marion, and Helena. Overall, this district will elect another liberal. Clark Hall and Keith Ingram, both white Democrats may challenge Crumbly in the primary. Crumbly is term limited in 2014.
Here’s what Son of the South says about Crittenden County:
Crittenden County is part of the Memphis Metropolitan area, but, unlike the other counties surrounding Shelby (Tipton and Fayette in TN, DeSoto in MS, all now Republican bastions), it is heavily Democratic. Crittenden is barely majority-white, and while there are a few Republican suburbanites, they are always outvoted. There is a possibility that that it may trend Republican over the next decade due to its proximity to Downtown Memphis, where many businesses are located, but the trend would not amount to much. The reasons that suburbanization has not caught on there as much as it has in the area's other counties are multiple. First, Crittenden County's suburban areas are not natural extensions of other suburban areas, which grow out from each other, and parts of the city often frequented by suburbanites are arguably less accessible. Second, the county usually floods much more often and more damagingly than Shelby County does. And third, if you add to the first two the facts that it's in Arkansas and people occasionally see a story on the local news about a meth lab exploding in someone's garage in West Memphis (the county's main town), a lot of people just don't want to live there.
State Senate District 25, Pink: (D+22.9): Stephanie Flowers, Safe Democratic
39% White, 59% Black
*Thurston 29% (R), Bryant 71% (D)
*Martin 26% (R), O’Brien 73% (D)
*Darr 28% (R), Broadway 72% (D)
*Beebe 81% (D), Keet 17% (R)
*Boozman 33% (R), Lincoln 64% (D)
Stephanie Flowers takes in rural blacks in the Delta and Pine Bluff, one of the main vote hubs for Democrats in the state. Flowers is very liberal and progressive and a private attorney.
State Senate District 26, Gray: (D+8.3): Jim Jeffress, Safe Democratic
66% White, 28% Black
*Thurston 42% (R), Bryant 58% (D)
*Martin 42% (R), O’Brien 58% (D)
*Darr 45% (R), Broadway 55% (D)
*Beebe 72% (D), Keet 27% (R)
*Boozman 51% (R), Lincoln 46% (D)
I’m not sure the word “Republican elected official” is known here. This is a Delta seat, where conservative white Democrat Jim Jeffress is extremely popular. He has blended outreach to African Americans and whites. He is retiring due to term limits. This is a district where Democrats are overwhelmingly favored; turnout among small town African Americans was down in 2010, and white poor Democrats have remained happy with the investments that legislative leaders have brought to this region (The Speaker of the State House, Robert Moore is from this area and has a lot of clout.) This area is one that had relied on earmarks, federal money, and has people making the minimum wage or below the minimum wage.
Jeffress’s district takes in Warren, Arkansas City, and Monticello. This district expands in northern Desha County, and eastern Cleveland County. Potential Democratic candidates include the State House Speaker Robert Moore, State Representative Eddie Cheatham, former State Representative Greg Reep, and former State Representative Johnny Bolin. The Democratic primary will be interesting - each candidate brings their own craft of politics and constituent projects to the district.
State Senate District 27, Blue-Green: (D+1.6): Gene Jeffress and Jerry Taylor, Leans Republican
64% White, 33% Black
*Thurston 49% (R), Bryant 51% (D)
*Martin 49% (R), O’Brien 51% (D)
*Darr 51% (R), Broadway 49% (D)
*Beebe 65% (D), Keet 33% (R)
*Boozman 58% (R), Lincoln 37% (D)
This is one of the districts that Beebe did not do a good job in. It’s inexcusable for a district in the lowlands of Southern Arkansas to be a Darr district. Anyway, Gene Jeffress and Jerry Taylor, both Democratic incumbents are retiring because of term limits. This district includes El Dorado, and the historical African American town of Camden. State Representative Matthew Shepherd, an up and coming dangerous Republican is a potential candidate here. Shepherd has access to money, and was one of the first Republicans to win a seat in rural southern Arkansas. Democrats might run former State Representative John Lowery, or Gary Smith. Both are boring names. Republicans will need to run up the margin in everything to offset the Democratic wins in the African American areas of Camden and El Dorado.
I don’t have a good feeling about this one...
State Senate District 28, Dull Pink: (D+6.1): Jonathan Dismang, Tilt Democratic
80% White, 15% Black
*Thurston 47% (R), Bryant 52% (D)
*Martin 45% (R), O’Brien 55% (D)
*Darr 46% (R), Broadway 54% (D)
*Beebe 72% (D), Keet 27% (R)
*Boozman 53% (R), Lincoln 43% (D)
Beebe hates Jonathan Dismang, apparently. Dismang was the only Republican placed in a Democratic district. Dismang’s district contains Searcy, Beebe, and Stuggart. I’m wary of this district because White County turnout usually exceeds the rural moderate Democrats in Arkansas County, Lonoke County, Woodruff County, Monroe County, and Prairie County. White County is a “dry county,” is home to very conservative Harding University, and is perhaps the most religious county in the state. (Can you get that title in Arkansas?)
Democrats might run State Representative Tiffany Rogers, who will need to do really good in the rural impoverished farmlands to offset Dismang’s popularity in Searcy. Searcy is also one of the more well to do towns (again, if that is possible) in Arkansas.
I also am disappointed Yarnell Ice Cream got shut down...
State Senate District 29, Dull Green: (R+12.8): Eddie Joe Williams, Safe Republican
93% White, 2% Black
*Thurston 68% (R), Bryant 32% (D)
*Martin 62% (R), O’Brien 38% (D)
*Darr 63% (R), Broadway 37% (D)
*Beebe 52% (D), Keet 46% (R)
*Boozman 73% (R), Lincoln 23% (D)
Talk of a Republican pack.... This district extends from Little Rock through 80-20 Republicans areas in Cabot, and into White County. If you are wondering why this area is so conservative, and why it never belongs in a congressional district designed to elect Democrats (Ugh!), read this. Cabot is extremely white, and is one of the best-off areas in Arkansas. Eddie Joe Williams will have no problem here. Williams is a former mayor of Cabot and very conservative.
State Senate District 30, Pink: (D+27.1): Linda Chesterfield, Safe Democrat
37% White, 56% Black
*Thurston 25% (R), Bryant 75% (D)
*Martin 21% (R), O’Brien 79% (D)
*Darr 22% (R), Broadway 77% (D)
*Beebe 82% (D), Keet 17% (R)
*Boozman 27% (R), Lincoln 69% (D)
We’ve arrived in Little Rock! Chesterfield, a liberal African American Democrat... Nothing more to say.
State Senate District 31, White/Yellow: (D+31.2): Joyce Elliott, Safe Democrat
28% White, 62% Black
*Thurston 21% (R), Bryant 79% (D)
*Martin 18% (R), O’Brien 82% (D)
*Darr 18% (R), Broadway 82% (D)
*Beebe 85% (D), Keet 14% (R)
*Boozman 22% (R), Lincoln 75% (D)
Joyce Elliott, who you remember as the total incompetent nominee for AR-02 next year, holds this seat. Safe for her, though she might get a primary from State Representative Fred Allen.
State Senate District 32, Red: (D+9.7): David Johnson, Likely Democrat
75% White, 18% Black
*Thurston 45% (R), Bryant 55% (D)
*Martin 37% (R), O’Brien 63% (D)
*Darr 40% (R), Broadway 60% (D)
*Beebe 69% (D), Keet 29% (R)
*Boozman 48% (R), Lincoln 49% (D)
Not just the African American parts of Little Rock are liberal. David Johnson is one of the most progressive Democrats (sitting in a fairly white seat) in the state legislature on fiscal and social matters. Johnson is fairly popular among both whites, and blacks, and this district had low turnout last year. Not sure who would challenge Johnson, but I’m sure someone will step up to the plate... Johnson has been a private practice attorney, and a Deputy Prosecuting Attorney for the county.
State Senate District 33, Blue: (R+3.9): Jeremy Hutchinson, Likely R
88% White
*Thurston 60% (R), Bryant 40% (D)
*Martin 56% (R), O’Brien 44% (D)
*Darr 43% (R), Broadway 57% (D)
*Beebe 58% (D), Keet 41% (R)
*Boozman 67% (R), Lincoln 29% (D)
Shane Broadway was a well-liked popular Democrat in this district, which takes in Little Rock, Benton, and Bauxite, before running for Lieutenant Governor in 2010. So that skews the numbers a little bit in favor of the Democrats. Hutchinson shouldn’t have a lot to worry about as he gets settled into his semi-wealthy suburban Arkansas district. He is very conservative. Broadway cannot regain this seat because of term limits. As population spreads out from Little Rock, this district may start to trend. Or maybe not.
State Senate District 34, Green: (R+1.8): Mary Ann Salmon, Tilts Democratic
72% White, 20% Black
*Thurston 46% (R), Bryant 54% (D)
*Martin 45% (R), O’Brien 55% (D)
*Darr 48% (R), Broadway 52% (D)
*Beebe 64% (D), Keet 35% (R)
*Boozman 58% (R), Lincoln 38% (D)
Rightly or wrongly, the Democratic Party’s perceived movement to the left hurt them in suburban North Little Rock, home to District 34, in 2010. The incumbent Democrat, Mary Ann Salmon is retiring because of term limits. North Little Rock is the tossup part of Pulaski County every year. This city is becoming ever more important for a major national Democratic candidate to win every year, in part because the rural areas are slowly killing them. Joyce Elliot discovered that you can’t win Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district unless you make an active effort outside of inner-city Little Rock last year.
Salmon has maintained a mainly liberal profile on both social and economic issues, with a few more moderate positions. Salmon was an appointment director for Clinton in the 1990s. Potential Democratic candidates include North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays, and conservative Democratic State Representative Barry Hyde. A Republican potential candidate is State Representative Jane English. This area will continue to seesaw between Democrats and Republicans for the future - we will see if a Democrat in Salmon’s mold can connect with the community and hold down this Senate seat.
State Senate District 35, Purple: (R+2.1): Gilbert Baker, Jason Rapert, EPIC Tossup
80% White, 13% Black
*Thurston 54% (R), Bryant 46% (D)
*Martin 54% (R), O’Brien 46% (D)
*Darr 53% (R), Broadway 47% (D)
*Beebe 61% (D), Keet 37% (R)
*Boozman 60% (R), Lincoln 36% (D)
The candidates are set here and most every Arkansas politico is calling this the most epic state legislative race of 2012 that will decide who controls the State Senate.
Gilbert Baker, a Republican Senate leader, is retiring from the Senate due to term limits.
Jason Rapert, the incumbent Republican, represented a sprawling rural district in West Arkansas until redistricting. Rapert, who is perhaps the most conservative member of the Senate, got destroyed by Beebe. His district was splintered, and his home ended up in this mostly new district centered on Conway.
Democratic State Representative Linda Tyler won election to a fairly Republican House district in 2008. She then survived the 2010 onslaught, defeating her Republican opponent by 269 votes. Tyler has connections to the Faulkner community, serving in the library, working in health interests, and working at Acxiom Corporation.
With the inclusion of many more Republicans in the state legislature this year, anti-abortion bills started racking up on the Senate floor. Tyler, takes a pro-choice position (a very dangerous position in this part of Arkansas), and as chair of the Public Health Committee, defeated 10 anti-abortion bills during this last session. Naturally, Republicans will zero in on that position, especially considering the fact that Tyler is pro-choice in a fairly conservative city. Tyler has had consistent feuds with organized labor and supports right to work legislation. (She does not support card check.) The AFL-CIO was so mad at her that they endorsed the Republican in last year’s State House race. Tyler needs to work out some compromise with the AFL-CIO because she is going to need their help with GOTV. Rapert will hopefully be able to capitalize on Democratic groups mistrust of Tyler, and will try to nationalize the word “Democrat” and link Tyler to Obama. Tyler is also not extremely anti-Obamacare, something that she will need to be to win.
Rapert (a former financial advisor) will be hit on his bills to lower taxes on just corporations, tax cuts on utility bills for corporations, fracturing regulation, a loan shark bill, transparency in his taxpayer subsidized non-profit and perhaps, and the drug testing of unemployment recipients. Rightly or wrongly, Tyler will try to link Rapert to being obsessed with helping corporations and not the Middle Class.
LET THE CAMPAIGN BEGIN.