(Bachmann: Jim Young/Reuters, Perry: Brian Snyder/Reuters)
Dave Weigel on the latest Gallup poll:
The most-covered non-Perry candidates, Bachmann and Huntsman, both lost support. Bachmann lost around a fifth of her support after she won Ames. But I doubt the media has much to do with this. There is a Tea Party conservative vote, and Perry has swooped in to take it from Bachmann. He grabs 33% of it; she has 12%. He gets 34% of weekly churchgoers; she has 9%. He even leads Bachmann in the Midwest, where she trails Ron Paul, too. The best thing Perry has going for him -- the problem Romney was always going to have -- is his Southern base. He leads Romney by the margin of error in every region of the country except for the South, where he leads 39-12.
So, call it: The Bachmann surge is over.
Dave can call it. I won't. Just go back three months:
Yup. Donald Trump was at the top. How long did that last?
You want more hilarity? Remember the time when Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani led the GOP field in 2007? I'm not kidding. These are Gallup numbers from this time, four years ago:
So for starters, it's too early to determine whether Perry has staying power. If I'm Bachmann, I'm not panicking.
Second of all, Perry has to build an organization in Iowa, where Bachmann is currently dominant. This isn't a national primary. Perry has to survive Iowa, and then New Hampshire, which has historically been hostile to southern Texan governors.
It's a competitive primary, no doubt about it. Declaring Bachmann dead today is as smart as those of us who laughed at McCain's chances exactly four years ago.