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Minneapolis area close-up:

MN 1: 51.5 Obama
Dark Blue
Willmar, Alexandria, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes, Moorhead City, Bemidji
Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes)
One of the least progressive Democrats - Collin's in a swing district.  This district becomes a smidgen less Republican.

MN 2: 49.2 Obama
Dodger Blue (Light Blue)
Hibbing, Duluth, Brainerd, Little Falls, St. Cloud, Cambridge
Chip Cravaack (R-Lindstrom)
District does not change much- Chip's still in a swing district.  It's a little less Democratic.

MN 3: 51.2 McCain
Dark Magenta (Purple)
Mankato, Fairmont, Albert Lea, Worthington, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, Glencoe, Waconia, Faribault, Marshall
Tim Walz (D-Mankato)
- I'd love to put him in a better district but Tim's from Mankato and the area around it is just so swingy.  He's in a 51 Obama district now.  So maybe I'd change this district a little but it's going to be a marginal seat either way.

MN 4: 52.0 Obama
Inver Grove Heights, Eagan, Cottage Grove, Hastings, Red Wing, Northfield, Rochester, Winona, Owatonna, Austin

New district- no incumbent from either party, so it's going to be a Swing seat.

MN 5: 58.5 Obama
St. Paul, Bloomington, Eagan, Savage, Shakopee, Eden Prairie, Apple Valley, Lakeville

Three incumbents live here: Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul), Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie), John Kline (R-Lakeville).  The two Republicans would battle it out in the primary, but Betty would be favored to win.

MN 6: 57.1 Obama

Minneapolis, Falcon Heights, Roseville, Shoreview, White Bear Lake, Little Canada, Maplewood, Oakdale, Woodbury, Stillwater, Blaine

The Incumbent is Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) but her old district was 53-45 McCain.  This one is Democratic.  She stands a good chance of being ousted from the House in this bluer MN 6.

MN 7: 57.6 Obama
Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Chahassen, St. Louis Park, Richfield, Edina, Orono, Elk River, Big Lake
No incumbent.  A new freshman Democrat would likely win this seat.

MN 8: 59.6 Obama
Lavender (Slate Blue)
Minneapolis, Fridley, Golden Valley, New Hope, Brooklyn Center, Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids, Champlin, Anoka, Andover
Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis).  This is the most similar to Keith's old district, so I think he'll be here.  His old district was 74-24.  Obviously all the Minneapolis seats have been made much less Democratic but with a 60% Obama district, I don't think he needs to worry.

In a good Democratic year, Democrats could sweep all 8 districts.  President Obama won 5 of the 8 districts under the current map.  With this map, he would win 7 of the 8.

In a bad year for Democrats, the first four would be the most vulnerable.

The best part about this map is that it gets rid of Michele Bachmann, who even if she ran would likely lose to her Democratic challenger.  The worst part is that Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison's districts are more of a bluish purple now and not deep blue like they were.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    In general, I like what you did in the Twin Cities a lot more than your outstate map. It is too risky to try to do an 8D-0R map in Minnesota. I would strongly prefer a 7D-1R map with one GOP vote sink, such as my map.

  •  Good work (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    still, I think it's iffy to attempt a full sweep in a state like Minnesota that isn't deep blue.  Especially when the Republican areas are clumped together so nicely and are just asking to be dumped into a vote sink.

  •  I see what you tried to do here (0+ / 0-)

    But I think your analysis is quite a bit off. For instance, your gray district takes in about half of Minneapolis bit you didn't mention that. Cravaack's district moves at least 7 points to the right presidentially, and probably closer to 10-15 points more Republican locally as you sucked about every non-Duluth Iron Ranger out of the district. Walsh would be safe in a farmland district. But running his district up into the blood red exurbs like Waconia is asking for trouble, even if it doesn't change the PVI much at the presidential level. Farmland+Rochester+Mankato=Likely Walz even in 2010esque years.

    I am not going to get into what I see as wrong with the districts from a practicality standpoint, and leave my 2 cents at the analysis portion of.your post. All I will say is that a 6-1-Peterson, or a 5-1-1-Peterson district is my personal preference, and doesn't spit in the face of president or COI issues

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