In Colorado the legislature does not draw it's own maps, a commission draws the maps and they are sent directly to the Colorado Supreme Court for approval. The Commission is made up of the following:
4 members: 2 chosen by each Party's leadership.
3 members: chosen by the Governor.
4 members: chosen by the Chief Justice of the Colorado Supreme Court.
In 2001, the Governor was a Republican and chose 3 Republicans, but then the Chief Justice chose 4 Democrats, putting the commission in Democratic control by a 6-5 margin. (the largest margin allowed) This year, however, both the Chief Justice and the Governor were determined that it be a non-partisan process, so the Governor appointed 2 Democrats and 1 Republican and the Chief Justice appointed 1 Democrat, 2 Republicans and one unaffiliated member. The unaffiliated member, Mario Carrera, is chair of the commission and the swing vote between the 5 Democrats and Republicans.
This had gone our way for a good portion of the drawing, until it came to the metro area. Then the Republican map was voted on and Carrera voted with the Republicans, drastically changing the look of the metro area House Districts and giving the Republicans a big advantage in the preliminary map. Currently the Commission is traveling the State seeking feedback and it will then vote on amendments before it send it to the Supreme Court. So this is subject to change, but here's where we stand as of today:
Overall, I used Bennet v. Buck numbers as this was the most even race the state has had and should be the Democratic baseline, in some cases down ballot registration numbers play a bigger role, but it should at least illustrate the shifts in the districts. New numbers first, old numbers in parentheses.
Statewide:
Denver (view of southeast portion):
HD1 - Labuda (D) - 56%-38% (55%-39%) This district doesn't change much, but picks up Latino areas from HD2 to become Hispanic Majority.
HD2 - Ferrandino (D) - 71%-25% (76.5%-18%) This district loses a big chunk of the west-side Latino areas and picks up the DU area from HD3 to become a solidly white liberal district.
HD3 - Kagan (D) - 50%-45% (61.5%-34%) This is the first of the drastic changes, with slower growth in Denver, a seat loss was necessary, so this district drops the DU areas of Denver and picks up Sheridan and Greenwood village, as well as some incorporated areas of Arapahoe County. Denver County was what kept this district Democratic, it now becomes very swingy, perhaps too much for the very liberal Kagan.
HD4 - Pabon (D) - 76%-18.5% (76%-19%) Little change, grows to add population. Hispanic majority.
HD5 - Duran (D) - 77%-18% (77%-18%) Picks up rest of Capitol Hill and loses some of the Highlands, becomes gayer and whiter, otherwise not much change.
HD6 - Court (D) - 68%-28% (67.5%-29%) Moves around the margins, not much change.
HD7 - Williams (D) - 79%-18% (78%-19%) Shrinks for population growth in Stapleton, but at 40% Hispanic and 30% Black it remains a minority dominated district.
HD8 - McCann (D) - 83.5%-13% (84%-13%) Takes in Cheesman Park, moves around the edges, this district is now majority white, but still most Democratic in the State.
HD9 - OPEN (D) - 60%-35% (61%-34%) Assuming Miklosi stays in the race for Congress, this seat is open, but remains Democratic and centered on Southeast Denver.
Boulder County:
HD11 - Gardner (D) - 50%-44% (59.5%-36%) The second drastic change moves this district from a Boulder to northern Longmont district to a Longmont only district (leaving out the most Democratic precincts for HD12). This district is also now very swingy. Look for possible changes here.
HD12 - OPEN (D) - 66%-30% (64.5%-30%) This Louisville-based district remains very Democratic and very close to it's previous incarnation.
HD13 - Hullinghorst Levy (D) - 82%-14% (75%-21%) The numbers here are from the old 10th as this district closely resembles it (minus Niwot). The old 13th is now the new 26th. Rep. Levy was drawn into this district now that it includes all of Boulder
HD26 - Levy Hullinghorst (D) - 64%-31% (70.5%-25%) This district resembles the old 13th, with the addition of Grand County and the loss of the City of Boulder. The old numbers reflect that of the old 13th. Look for changes here too as Grand County residents prefer being lumped with the Western slope. Hullinghorst's home was moved into this district.
El Paso County:
HD14 - Joshi (R) - 31%-65% (30%-65%) Minor changes, still Republican-dominated district.
HD15 - Waller (R) - 27%-66% (30.5%-63%) This east Colorado Springs-based district shrinks some for the drastic population growth, losing some Democratic precincts and remaining very much a solid Republican district.
HD37 - Liston (R) 33%-61% (37.5%-56%) This district was renumbered, it was the 16th, but is now the 37th. It loses Democratic Precincts and remains solidly Republican.
HD17 - Barker (R) 46.5%-45% (46.5%-45%) The first of the swing districts of El Paso County, this district loses Fort Carson and adds parts of the old HD18, remaining at the same balance as before. With a strong candidate this district could flip back to the Democrats as it did in 2008 with a much weaker candidate.
HD18 - Lee (D) 53%-41% (55%-39%) The most Democratic district in El Paso County needed to add population so now includes UCCS and Patty Jewett, while giving up some areas to HD17, it becomes slightly more Republican, but this area is trending the right direction.
HD19 - Looper (R) 32%-60% (33%-59%) Little change, solid R.
HD20 - Stephens (R) 24%-73% (24%-72%) Little change, most Republican in the State.
HD21 - Gardner (R) 35.5%-59.5% (36%-59%) Adds Fort Carson, remains solid R.
Jefferson County:
HD10 - Kerr (D) v. Summers (R) - 50%-45% (n/a) With Jefferson County losing a seat, this seat combines parts of HD26 and HD22 and was drawn to be a battle-royale between one Republican member and one Democratic member. The registration in this district is about dead even between Rs and Ds. It includes more of Summers' old district, but it was the more Democratic parts of it. The old 10th was Boulder-based.
HD23 - Tyler (D) - 56%-38% (54%-40%) This district loses Golden and adds the parts of HD26 that aren't now in HD10, it becomes more Democratic and safer for Max Tyler.
HD24 - Schaefer (D) - 53%-41% (54%-39%) This Wheat Ridge-based district gains Golden and loses old town Arvada. Still Democratic leaning.
HD25 - Gerou (R) - 45%-51% (44.5%-51%) Little change, remains foothills-based and Republican leaning.
HD27 - Szabo (R) - 46%-48% (46%-48%) This district stretches more west into outer Arvada, remains about the same in Registration and performance, slight Republican lean.
HD28 - Kerr (R) 42%-52% - (42%-53%) Home to the Republican Kerr, this Ken Caryl-based district adds the more Republican parts of HD22. Solid Republican.
HD29 - Rodriguez (R) - 49%-45% (50%-43%) The Republican map was meant to shore up Rodriguez in this seat that flipped control of the House to Republicans. The justification was to shore up a "Minority Representative." It takes in the more Republican parts of Arvada and loses the Democratic parts it had. This remains a swing district, but now a slight Republican advantage.
Adams County:
HD16 - OPEN - 55.5%-37% (n/a) This is a new district in Adams County, definitely Democratic, centered on Aurora in Adams County, it then takes in the most minority-heavy precincts in Aurora in Arapahoe County. Now a majority Hispanic district. Look for changes here as it messes with the Arapahoe districts a lot more than Democrats would like.
HD30 - Priola (R) - 44%-48% (47%-45%) This district loses it's Aurora portion, moving it from swing to lean Republican.
HD31 - OPEN (D) - 48%-46% (47%-47%) This district shrinks for population growth and becomes ever so slightly more Democratic, still major swing district and will be open due to Solano being termed out.
HD32 - Casso (D) 55%-37% (54%-38%) This seat moves from plurality-Hispanic to a majority-Hispanic district and remains Democratic, the changes take in precincts from the south and losing them to the north. This affects HD35, which we'll get to soon.
HD33 - Beezley (R) 49%-46% (50%-45%) Another narrow victory for Republicans in 2010, this district loses parts of Adams County and pulls in all of Erie, which is swingy. With a slight bump towards Republicans, this district remains very swingy.
HD34 - OPEN (D) 56.5%-34% (52.5%-40%) This district takes in parts of HD32 to become majority Hispanic and more solidly Democratic and just in time with the homophobic Soper being termed out.
HD35 - OPEN (D) - 51%-43% (56%-36%) Another major move from Democratic to swing as this district loses the Democratic precincts in the south to gain more Republican turf in the north.
Arapahoe County:
HD22 - Swalm (R) 41.5%-54% (46%-50%) The Commission really did a number on Arapahoe County, this district was the old HD37, based in Centennial, it now contains chunks of HD37, HD39 (Foxfield), and HD40 in Eastern Arapahoe County. Remains solidly Republican.
HD36 - Ryden (D) 52%-42% (56%-38%) By losing precincts in the west and adding Republican precincts to the east and south, this district becomes much more swingy. Look for changes here as well.
HD38 - Conti (R) 46%-49% (46%-49%) This district loses Greenwood Village and takes in western Centennial, it may not look drastic from the Bennet numbers, but the registration advantage for Republicans goes up from 5 to 11 points! Joe Rice held this seat for 4 years before 2010, but we probably won't get it back now.
HD40 - 46.5%-48% (38%-55.5%) This is one of the few cases a Republican district became a swing district. HD40 loses a ton of its former turf and adds parts of HD39 to become the south-eastern Aurora district, with a Republican lean, but not overwhelming.
HD41 - OPEN (D) 56%-38% (58%-37%) This district just gets uglier, it moves further south, but remains safe Democratic.
HD42 - Fields (D) 60%-34% (61.5%-32%) This majority-minority district loses much of it's current turf to the new HD16, moving south and west to take in much of HD36. Rep. Fields is very unhappy with this map as it barely draws her into it. Look for changes here.
Douglas County:
HD43 - McNulty (R) - 40%-57% (39.5%-57%) Remains Highlands Ranch-based and solidly Republican.
HD44 - Holbert (R) - 36%-60% (35%-60%) Shrinks to be Parker and Lone Tree-based, still solid Republican.
HD45 - Murray (R) - 32.5%-63% (32%-64%) Shrinks to be centered in Castle Rock, solidly Republican.
HD39 - OPEN - 32.5%-63% (n/a) This is the new seat for Douglas County, which has had massive growth since the last census. No incumbent, but solid Republican.
Pueblo County:
HD46 - OPEN (D) - 62%-33% (62%-33%) Pueblo-based, heavily Democratic. No change.
HD47 - Swerdfeger (R) - 44%-51% (44%-51%) Drops Fremont County (or prisons rather) and adds Democratic Las Animas County. This part of the state is trending away from Democrats, however, and even with a larger registration advantage, performance doesn't seem to improve. This will be a tough one to get back.
Weld County:
HD48 - OPEN (R) 36%-60% (36%-58%) This district remains centered on west Greeley, but adds Windsor, dropping the southwest towns in Weld County. This county also saw huge growth. This district remains the same, solidly Republican.
HD50 - Young (D) - 43%-50% (46.5%-47%) While not necessarily a Republican move, the desire to make this district majority-Hispanic drew it into the smaller towns in Weld, making it much more Republican in it's actual voting because so many Latinos in this area are non-citizens. This will be a tough hold.
HD57 - OPEN - 34%-59% (n/a) This new district takes in the rest of Weld and half of Morgan County. Solidly Republican.
Larimer County:
HD49 - Nikkel (R) - 40%-54.5% (41%-53.5%) The everything-else-in-Larimer district adds Jackson County and takes in Berthoud and Miliken in Weld County, losing that Windsor portion. Remains solid R.
HD51 - DelGrosso (R) - 40%-53% (40%-53%) Loveland-based, solid Republican. No change.
HD52 - OPEN (D) - 55%-40% (56.5%-38%) Only a recently Democratic seat, this eastern Fort Collins district should be a hold for Dems.
HD53 - Fischer (D) - 57%-38% (57%-38%) Western Fort Collins (CSU), solid Democratic. No change.
Western slope:
HD54 - Scott (R) - 31%-62% (30.5%-62%) Southern Mesa County, solid R. No change.
HD55 - Bradford (R) - 33%-60% (33%-60%) Northern Mesa County, no change. Solid hold for crazy face!
HD56 - Hamner (D) - 54%-40% (54%-40%) Ski-town based, little change, strong Democratic lean.
HD58 - Coram (R) - 38%-55% (36%-56%) This district adds Hinsdale and south Gunnison, still solid Republican.
HD59 - Brown (R) - 46%-49% (46%-49%) This district now includes both Ute Reservations, so look for change as they like to be separate. Still swingy with Republican lean.
HD60 - OPEN (R) - 38%-54.5% (39%-53.5%) Central Mountain valleys, little change. Solid Republican.
HD61 - Wilson (D) - 55%-39.5% (57%-36%) With the addition of parts of Delta an the lost of southern Gunnison, it moves ever so slightly to the right, but don't expect this Aspen-based district to flip.
HD62 - Vigil (D) - 56%-38.5 (57%-38%) This district is as close to VRA as we get, majority Hispanic and based in the San Luis Valley, its make up is sacrosanct and it is solidly Democratic.
HD63 - Baumgardner (R) - 39%-54% (39.5%-54%) Renumbered from 57, this district loses Grand and Jackson, solid Republican.
HD64 - Becker? (R) Open? (D) 31%-63% (42.5%-51%) With McKinley termed out and this district needing to take in more people, it is transformed to a southern eastern plains district, becoming solidly Republican. It would have been a tough hold regardless.
HD65 - Becker? (R) Sonnenberg? (R) - 31%-62% (29%-65%) This district now resembles the old HD63, but includes much of the old HD65. I don't know who lives here, but its gonna be a Republican hold.
So here's the totals:
Old Map
Solid D: 23 (Bennet 55%+)
Lean D: 6 (Bennet 54%-52%)
Tossup: 5 (Bennet 51%-47%)
Lean R: 9 (Bennet 46%-44%)
Solid R: 22 (Bennet 43%-)
New Map
Solid D: 22
Lean D: 4
Tossup: 7
Lean R: 8
Solid R: 24
So under the new map one more seat is at least leaning towards Republicans, while the number of seats leaning Democratic drops by 3. This doesn't seem like a massive shift, but with a one-seat margin it could be a big difference. Hopefully this gets at least softened in the amendment phase.
Mon Aug 29, 2011 at 12:16 PM PT: Good catch from kretzy, Hullinghorst was moved into the new 26th while Levy was moved into the new 13th.