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The most recent polling demonstrates that Rick Perry has become either the front-runner or at least the co-front runner with Mitt Romney.  Michelle Bachmann is running slightly behind, and no one else at the moment is worth speaking about.  In a Mitt Romney versus Rick Perry race,  the Northeast becomes absolutely essential to Mitt Romney’s plans.  This is why a recent article peaked my  interest
There are straightforward interpretations to Mayor Giuliani’s toying with a run.  His Honor wants to be part of the conversation. He thinks he can win. I could perhaps buy that the Mayor’s ambition would push him this way.

But there has also been much discussion of the fact that Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani are close. So much so that in 2008 Rick Perry, in surprising fashion, endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President before the Mayor flamed out.  If I am Rick Perry and I seek Mitt Romney’s absolute destruction, no entrant into the race would be more perfect than Rudy Giuliani.   This might be true simply because Giuliani has the national name recognition and potential to contend broadly for the moderate wing that Romney absolutely must dominate. But even more important is the fact that Rudy Giuliani ‘s mere presence on the ballot is probably enough for him to defeat Mitt Romney in New York and New Jersey.  Even if Rudy Giuliani had no other impact, this damage alone would be enough to give Rick Perry a nearly insurmountable lead over Romney.  Mitt Romney’s last great hope California won’t be voting until June.  In short, if you take away New York and New Jersey from Romney, you pretty much end him.

     There is another reason why Rick Perry might want Rudy Giuliani in the race. Rudy makes an absolutely perfect running mate for the Texas Governor.   Rick Perry wants to bridge back to being All-American and being a candidate not just for the South, but for the country. Rudy Giuliani sends that message loud and clear.  And while others don’t have the pro-life credit to pick a pro-choice running mate [as McCain didn’t], Rick Perry certainly will. Moreover, having Rudy Giuliani run, be in the public eye, maybe win a few primaries, and potentially even garner some delegates in a competitive, now four-way, contest, makes the medicine of his selection go down even easier at the convention and within the Party.  We can hear Perry saying, “well I did it because I needed those NY/NJ delegates.”  I think the Republicans desire to win would make Perry’s choice of Rudy not that hard a sell.  

       If Giuliani and Perry want such a deal, either for a generic favor or for the Vice-Presidential nomination, it’s hard to see many logistical obstacles in their way.   To watch whether it’s happening the first place to check is whether Perry donors are helping Giuliani and vice-versa.  By then it might be too late for Republicans to notice cooperation or see it as a scheme and not a happy accident. For the time being this is an interesting sub-plot to watch as the Republican primary process begins in earnest.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think your analysis is spot on. It could happen (0+ / 0-)
  •  @!&$** (0+ / 0-)

    With our luck, the moron will have  someone reading DailyKos for campaign advice.

  •  the day is swiftly passing where someone else (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    amk for obama

    can enter the field as this is the slam on Palin and her apparent indecision.  It takes time money and organization to mount a POTUS primary bid.  We are already seeing the also rans dropping out as it appears it will be a 3 horse race until the early primaries.

    Rudy's last attempt shows he lacks popular support and he also has too much baggage to be a serious contender.  My guess is Perry is going to push hard for an early knockout of Bachmann and then finish off Mitt last, hitting him hard on how he is not one of the GOP base.  

  •  The first is more realistic than the second (0+ / 0-)

    The socons would flip out if Rudy was on the ticket no matter how much cred Perry may have.

    Rick Perry is a monstrous lie.

    by Paleo on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 02:18:44 PM PDT

  •  I don't see a Perry/Gulliani ticket. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HiBob

    But the Northeast siphon is something to think about.  More likely a promise that President Perry would grant Rudy exclusive rights to the concept of 9/11 in exchange for a failed bid.

  •  Yawn (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry.

    Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you: Armisticeproject.org

    by FischFry on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 02:36:48 PM PDT

  •  Very good, Jason (0+ / 0-)

    Perry will need a moderate running mate for ideological balance on the ticket.  Guiliani fits, but then so do others--maybe even Romney.

  •  Tipped for some good points, and to counteract (0+ / 0-)

    what I would characterize as a very strange HR. All that said, I have a very hard time seeing anyone other than Marco Rubio as the Republican VP nominee. It just makes too much strategic sense. If polling doesn't show Rubio being on the ticket seriously putting Florida in play, then maybe Bob McDonnell, but if they don't win Florida, they aren't going to win anyway. Perry, in particular, would have to have a hispanic running mate because polling shows Texas in play in a head to head against Obama. The way to take Texas out of play would be to nominate the right hispanic running mate. That would be Rubio, not NM Governor Susana Martinez.

    "Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber." Aristotle

    by camlbacker on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 06:59:01 PM PDT

  •  It could happen. It would make me sick (0+ / 0-)

    to my stomach, but it could happen.  

    Perry could go on to win the Pukes' nom and he could choose the "moderate" Giuliani to balance the ticket.  

    The nutbaggers would howl but would understand that Perry was their prize and they'd put up with "liberal" Rudy.

    Progressives can't stand either one of them, for a variety of good reasons, but Republicans generally would likely grumble a bit and then cast their votes for a Perry-Giuliani ticket.  

    Don't know if Rudy would accept a veep nod, although his odds at the top of the ticket are quite long.  He was absolutely stomped out of contention in 2008, quickly, and horribly.  

    The Republicans appear ready to nominate one of three or four people.  I'm writing off Santorum, Caine, Gingrich, and most of the rest of the pack, thinking that Perry, Romney, and Bachmann are the only ones within plausible reach of the nomination.  Giuliani could get in the race, run better than expected in New Hampshire, still not WIN New Hampshire, but slice Romney's voter base just enough to give either Perry or Bachmann a win there.  That would kill Romney's campaign and create a sort of IOU from Perry.

    The Republicans are so ethically contorted at this point that I just don't see them triumphing over Obama.  But a Perry-Giuliani ticket, while it still wouldn't beat Obama-Biden, could make things interesting.  

  •  rudy's impact in NY and NJ, let alone on (0+ / 0-)

    national level, is overrated.

    One bitter fact is two bit hacks populate the third rate fourth estate who are truly the fifth columnists. PL poutrage lasts a week, max.
    Call the media when they Lie

    by amk for obama on Tue Aug 30, 2011 at 08:05:54 PM PDT

  •  Sounds reasonable. btw Lawrence O'Donnell (0+ / 0-)

    takes a big bite out of Judy Riuliani tonight.

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