AB 52, a bill that would have given California the right to regulate health insurance premium rates, went down in flames in the California Senate yesterday. Sure, politicians will tell you that they are 'regrouping' and advocacy groups will say 'all is not lost'. It's true -- it is technically possible that the bill could pass next year with just a vote in the California Senate, bypassing the need to introduce a new bill and go through the elaborate process of legislating from scratch.
But the stark fact of the matter is, to almost verbatim quote a staffer I talked to in Mike Feuer's office who was on the front lines:
"Five Democratic Senators told Assemblyman Feuer that under no circumstances would they vote for a bill to regulate health insurance rates this year."
(Assemblyman Feuer was the sponsor of the bill and coordinated the effort even in the Senate)
Since five Democratic Senators out of 25, plus 15 republicans, are enough to defeat any bill, there was no hope left for this year. There is nothing to indicate to me that anyone is going to change their mind in some magical way just because the calender ticks over from 2011 to 2012.
But back to the real question: why did it fail?
I don't know.
You don't know.
If there is someone who knows the odds are very high that they aren't talking.
And that's a big part of the problem.
We don't know who those five Senators are that were adamantly against the bill. Nor do we know who was on the fence. We know for a fact a number of Senators who were for the bill, but that's about all we know. There wasn't a vote taken, so only a few Senators are on record as supporting the bill, and no one that I am aware of is on record as being opposed (Senator Hermandez was quoted as saying he wouldn't vote for the bill without some alterations he considered necessary).
Oh sure, we have a general idea of why the bill failed. Insurance companies have their teeth firmly implanted into many legislators' throats. We've known that for a long time. But as constituents and grassroots activists, we are not deemed worthy of knowing which of our representatives are in support and which are supplying red blood cells to insurance company vampires on a bill that that critically affects our lives.
What we generally get when we call and ask is something like
Senator XXX does not yet have a position on the bill. He/she generally does not take a position on any bill until the vote. I will pass your support/opposition along to the Senator.
(If you don't believe me, read the comments to our advocacy diaries -- e.g. this one -- over the last few days, where people describe their calling experiences. Or try calling any of your State or Federal representatives and asking them their position on some bill).
And so, by design, we have no one to lay responsibility on. No particular targets to call, no office to picket, no townhall meeting where we can confront a particular legislator on why they were opposed, and no one in particular to threaten with a primary. There's no voting record to point to, and plausible denial ("I don't know how I would have voted!") because it never came to a vote and no one is going to own up in opposition.
In summary: Why did we fail?
We don't know.
We aren't going to know.
And that's the way they like it.
(Uhhuh, uhhuh).
(Thank you for allowing me to rant. You may now continue the erudite debate on the timing of the President's speech)