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Senate:

MI-Sen: In response to public pleas from former Gov. John Engler that he quit the GOP primary, Christian private school entrepreneur Clark Durant says he'll do no such thing, and noted to a radio host that Engler has "been in Washington for a while since he left Michigan." Meanwhile, Durant's rival for the Republican nod, Pete Hoekstra, picked up another endorsement, this one from 10th CD Rep. Candice Miller.

NE-Sen: AG Jon Bruning, who might be described as the nominal front-runner in the GOP primary, is coming under fire for some shady behavior. I'll let Robynn Tysver at the Omaha World-Herald explain:

In the summer of 2007, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning waived a $1 million settlement reached with a student loan company accused of improper business practices.

He later backed down after being accused of showing favoritism to Nelnet, a company whose executives had donated $16,000 to his campaigns.

A year after the controversy, Bruning and two top Nelnet executives purchased a $675,000 house together near the Platte River.

Click the link for the full story, which may indeed have some legs. Not only is Don Stenberg, who is probably Bruning's chief rival for the nomination, on the attack, two top Nebraska Republicans, Gov. Dave Heineman and Speaker of the Legislature Mike Flood, are refusing to defend Bruning. This one looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better.

VA-Sen: I'm really not seeing how supporting Eric Cantor's insistence on predicating disaster aide on further budget cuts is a political winner — yet here's George Allen doing just that, while Tim Kaine has the good sense to rip Cantor. It's all the more absurd since Virginia, too, was struck by Irene — not as horribly as upstate New York and Vermont, but the state saw flooding and widespread power outages. Even Virginia's arch-conservative Gov. Bob McDonnell took sides against Cantor's craven posturing. But hell, if Allen wants to go down with this ship, let him.

WI-Sen: No real surprise here, since they've already aired ads in the race, but the Club for Growth just officially endorsed ex-Rep. Mark Neumann in the GOP primary.

House:

CA-32, CA-38: A pair of inter-related developments in the Los Angeles area Congressional reshuffle: On Wednesday, Dem Rep. Grace Napolitano declared that she'd changed her mind and would not run in the 38th. Instead, Napolitano said she'd switch over to the new 32nd District, noting: "[Rep.] Linda [Sanchez] and I rarely disagree on issues. And after some consideration I felt that it would be better to have two strong Latina congresswomen representing the people of this area instead of just one."

The following day, in response, Sanchez said she'd run in the 38th CD. She doesn't necessarily have a clear shot, though, as another Democrat, state Sen. Ron Calderon, is already in the race. With the merry-go-round in full tilt, now is a good time to plug the updated version of the Race Tracker Wiki, a collaboration between Daily Kos Elections and the Sunlight Foundation's OpenCongress. Longtime DK Electioneer/Swingnut Benawu has been populating the wiki with candidate information — you can see the CA-38 page here. Since it's a wiki, you're welcome to sign up for an account and start adding info yourselves! In any event, you'll definitely want to bookmark the Race Tracker.

GA-09: The AJC's Jim Galloway reports that GOP state Rep. Doug Collins will run for Georgia's new congressional district — and also says that Galloway is the first to do so. I'm a little confused, though, because we've seen reports that conservative radio host Martha Zoller is running, but other sources say she is "seriously considering" the race. I'd be surprised if she didn't get in, but I'd just like a little more clarity here. (That final link, to Roll Call, at least quotes her directly, so I think "considering" is probably the right label.)

IL-13: Former state Rep. Jay Hoffman, the biggest Democratic name still considering the race in the redrawn 13th CD, says he will file paperwork to form an exploratory committee. GOP Rep. Tim Johnson has decided to seek re-election here, so if Hoffman gets in, it'll be a serious battle.

NY-09: Hmm. A new survey from GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates has the special election between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner a dead heat at 42 apiece, as compared to a 43-35 Weprin lead in July. But note that a) the poll was in the field for a single day and b) the sample size is just 300. Colin Campbell also reminds me of this NY-04 poll McLaughlin produced last October, showing a tied race that Democrat Carolyn McCarthy ultimately won by 17 points.

But there's some much better news for the Democrat: FEC filings were due yesterday, and Weprin handily outraised Turner. Weprin pulled in $451K between July 1 and Aug. 24 and has $202K on hand. In a press release, Weprin also says he's taken in an additional $100K since the end of the reporting period. Meanwhile, Bob Turner reported a pretty feeble haul: Just $138K (plus a $65K personal loan), with $92K left in the bank.

NY-19: I told you Nan Hayworth really fucked this one up hard. Yesterday, the GOP freshman echoed Eric Cantor's remarks that budget cuts must accompany any disaster aid offered to victims of Hurricane Irene — even though much of her district suffered massive damage and is still badly flooded. (Just one example: The vital commuter rail Port Jervis line has been "devastated" and won't be fixed for "months.") Now a fellow Republican, state Sen. Greg Ball, is lambasting her, with remarks that sound like they could have been uttered by a Democrat:

[Ball] said he doesn’t know “if she’s taking orders from (House Speaker John) Boehner or (House Majority Leader Eric) Cantor or whoever, but she needs to spend a little bit more time in the district and see the pain,” Ball told Gannett’s Albany Bureau. “I mean you can’t be attaching people’s lifeline to a political game in D.C.”

I should note that Ball isn't some "moderate" relic — he's a young arch-conservative and self-declared tea partier. He also ran for this seat in Congress in 2009, until Hayworth's entry (and money) priced him out of the race. I have to wonder if he's thinking about a primary challenge here.

OR-01: State Rep. Brad Witt, himself a former labor official, just announced the backing of four local unions. (Jeff Mapes's writeup for some reason say three, but Witt's press release (PDF) says four.) One of Witt's rivals for the Democratic nomination, Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, had previously scored endorsements from ten unions, but as Mapes notes, "they are all smaller than the UFCW and IBEW locals that endorsed Witt." Mapes also points out that the third big wheel in this race, Suzanne Bonamici, hasn't announced any labor backing as yet.

UT-02, UT-Sen, UT-Gov: Dem Rep. Jim Matheson says he'll decide which office he'll run for "sometime this fall." As you probably know, Matheson is a redistricting target for the state GOP, so he's been openly looking at a gubernatorial or Senate run for some time. He also claims that Rep. Jason Chaffetz's unexpected decision not to challenge Orrin Hatch for the GOP Senate nomination will have no bearing on his plans.

WA-01: Republican business consultant James Watkins, who scored 43% running against Jay Inslee last year, says he'll try again now that this seat is open (Inslee is running for governor). I'd be surprised if the GOP could make this race competitive if the best they could must was 43% in their high-water year, but Watkins did manage to raise a slightly-better-than-Some Dude $350K. Meanwhile, on the Dem side, local attorney Andrew Hughes, who also seems to fit the Some Dude profile, has joined the race and has raised $50K in his first month. Lot of big boppers in the Democratic field, though.

WI-02: Dem state Rep. Mark Pocan will launch a bid for Congress next week, according to the Madison-based Channel 3000, even though Rep. Tammy Baldwin hasn't yet launched her (widely expected) campaign for Senate yet. It wouldn't be the first time this cycle that this kind of out-of-order announcement happened (see state Sen. Eric Griego jumping the gun on Rep. Martin Heinrich's seat in NM-01), but perhaps Baldwin will jump in before Pocan does — or maybe this is Pocan's way of giving Baldwin a nudge. Anyhow, we're sure to see a serious Democratic primary for this seat, given its safe blue hue. Other likely candidates include state Sen. Jon Erpenbach and state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys, but I wouldn't be surprised if more names got in.

Grab Bag:

Kentucky: Public Policy Polling has radically overhauled their website, consolidating their blog with the rest of their site. You can take a look at the link, which points to Tom Jensen's newest post on a batch of KY miscellany. Could someone please explain to me the 7% of Kentuckians who are Yankees fans? That makes me want to hurl.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Maine redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    Headline: Commission approves Democratic redistricting plan; GOP ready to approve its own plan.

    "Republicans on the commission reiterated their willingness to use their legislative majorities in the Legislature to push through their preferred proposal — a more radical plan that would divide Maine east and west — on a straight party-line vote when lawmakers convene for a special session in late September. Doing so would circumvent the Legislature’s statutory two-thirds majority provision currently required to pass a redistricting plan.

    Democrats said such a move would prompt them to file a court challenge and potentially mount a people’s veto effort to overturn the GOP plan."

    •  I still don't see what the Maine GOP (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, jncca

      is going to all this trouble for.  The PVIs don't change!  Are they being clever or stubborn?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:21:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Trying to screw over Chellie Pingree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        as I recall.  So: "clever."

        In my avatar, the blue bars show how many want Reps who COMPROMISE; the aqua bars show who wants Reps who STAND FAST no matter what. (Left=Overall; Center=Democrats; Right=Republicans.) And there's the problem!

        by Seneca Doane on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:01:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are they aware of the long (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          history of Reps moving into districts and/or Representing districts they don't live in?

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:32:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I must say, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, jncca

            if I had nothing else significant against my member of congress, and they were drawn out of my district, that wouldn't be anywhere near enough for me to vote for someone else.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:44:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Politicians spend years cultivating their base (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            If your base gets chopped in two (or more), then there's no district you can choose that preserves the fruits of that effort.  That's what this is about.

            In my avatar, the blue bars show how many want Reps who COMPROMISE; the aqua bars show who wants Reps who STAND FAST no matter what. (Left=Overall; Center=Democrats; Right=Republicans.) And there's the problem!

            by Seneca Doane on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 02:17:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  They're playing the long game (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        whatever map they get passed this time will be the basis for maps in future redistricting cycles, and since the 2/3rds majority requirement will be set in stone next time, they can stonewall and let the courts draw the maps (which will likely be a least-change map, as that's what happened last time).

        Second, the PVI doesn't matter, it still moves 10,000 Republicans into ME-02. If Michaud ever vacates the seat, it could be more competitive than the existing district.

  •  TX Redistricting (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, jncca, supercereal, MichaelNY

    The trial will be expedited:

    http://www.statesman.com/...

    The judges probably want to avoid fiascos like the ones in 1996 and 2006 where multiple elections had to be held.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:05:53 AM PDT

  •  KY Baseball (3+ / 0-)

    As a native to Louisville...

    The Riverbats (now a farm team for the Reds) used to be the Red Birds (Cardinals).

    Most Louisvillians aren't too keen on Cincinnati.

    Now I don't know why St. Louis changed the farm team (or if that was a baseball-based decision), but many locals blame St. Louis for that, so that's out.

    Chicago is too far out to be serious fans, and the Yankees are more a national team than anyone else (not that this is excuseable).

    This is just supposing, though.

  •  CA-44: LA Mayor Villaraigosa endorses Hahn (5+ / 0-)

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:35:40 AM PDT

    •  Speaking of which (0+ / 0-)

      who keeps messing up the formatting/information on the Musical Chairs spreadsheet?

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:57:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, she is the Angeleno/a (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      out of the current lot, no?  Does anyone know how much of the district's population is in Los Angeles city limits?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:08:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  judging from the MPI maps (0+ / 0-)

        it looks like about 60% of the population is not LA or Long Beach. I don't know what the breakdown of that 40% is but I'd imagine it's more LB than LA.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:28:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  lol nevermind (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          of course they actually wrote this stuff out here and the city of LA is about a quarter of this district, much more LA here than Long Beach.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:38:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can't open that right now (0+ / 0-)

            But, as I've said, Hahn probably represented most of that quarter of the new CA-44 on the LACC.  Now, how much of the new CA-44 is in Hall's Senate district, which is much larger than an LACC district?

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:54:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hall's an assemblyman, not a senator (0+ / 0-)

              and just from eyeing his current district, it doesn't look like there's a lot of overlap there. I would guesstimate that Assemblyman Warren Furutani (D) has the biggest chunk.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:11:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  So Hahn (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Zack from the SFV

                might have more of a leg up in this primary's starting situation than some people think--depending on if previous representation/organization trumps ethnic identity.  I also don't know how much organization Richardson has in the new district.  Meanwhile, I think Furutani is aiming to be Hahn's successor on the LACC.

                26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:28:33 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think Hahn is in a bad position (0+ / 0-)

                  even if the vote breaks down by race, Richardson and Hall will split the black vote. And of course there will be plenty of black voters who reject Richardson off the bat because of her ethics problems.

                  21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 11:01:37 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  the question is (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    does hahn win the hispanic vote? she's generally thought of as stronger with blacks. or does a hispanic jump in, further scrambling things

                    18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:01:27 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Hispanic vote (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      seems up for grabs, but I've heard that LA has a lot of tension between black communities and Hispanic communities. (of course, that was supposed to hurt Obama too, and it didn't.)

                      also, fun fact: Hahn can be a Korean last name, since it's an alternate spelling of the last name Han (like the Han River which runs through Seoul)...maybe she'll win the Asian vote too? :)

                      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:17:48 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Re "Hahn," my next-door neighbors... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        ...are an elderly Korean immigrant retired couple named Hahn.

                        My female neighbor on the other side also is a retired Korean immigrant.

                        And one pair of neighbors across the street are Korean-Americans, born here.

                        There's also an elderly Indian-American immigrant woman a few houses down, and then us.

                        Everyone else is on our street is white.

                        Such is McLean, Virginia, where whites and Asians are the big groups.

                        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 03, 2011 at 03:55:56 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

  •  NV-02 finances (6+ / 0-)

    Marshall slightly ahead in terms of both $ raised and $ on hand, but being crushed by American Crossroads.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:37:36 AM PDT

  •  WI Senate: Correcting the diary (4+ / 0-)
    No real surprise here, since they've already aired ads in the race, but the Club for Growth just officially endorsed ex-Rep. Mark Neumann in the GOP primary.

    The above is true, but the note is incomplete.  The NATIONAL Club for Growth Committee endorsed Neumann for the open Senate seat.  

    The Wisconsin Chapter of the Club for Growth however has made it clear they have yet to endorse anybody and at the moment are officially neutral in the open Senate race.

    from linked article: http://dc.wispolitics.com/...

    The Wisconsin chapter of Club For Growth said Wednesday that it has not taken sides in the race and that it was not consulted about the national group's ad.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:41:15 AM PDT

  •  GA-9 ???? Mike Freeman ???? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    While checking out the elections wiki for Ga-9 I note the wiki does not list anyone as a potential nominee for the Democrats in GA-9.

    I have a Mike Freeman listed as a potential Democrat but the Wiki does not even indicate any connection to the race.

    Unfortunately, I no longer recall what article I read that led me to add Mike Freeman to my spread sheet so I throw it out to others to confirm or deny Mike Freeman's interest in this race?  Anyone?

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 06:55:41 AM PDT

  •  No new jobs. (0+ / 0-)

    Unemployment remains at 9.1% though.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/...=

    DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:04:41 AM PDT

    •  A bit off (7+ / 0-)

      The economy gained 45K jobs but the report discounts the 45K Verizon jobs that were temporarily lost due to the strike.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:10:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well yes and no (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, MichaelNY

        Yes the Verizon strike is a distortion, and it's striking that the BLS narrative explicitly identifies that distortion--that's rare, the BLS narrative usually avoids getting into that sort of thing.  Full data is available for inspection and study for anyone interested to root out those distortions and publicize them, but BLS generally avoids that.

        But zero is still the official figure, even if the 45K weren't really "lost," and further 45K is still crappy and well below expectations.

        By the way, the downward revisions for June and July totaled 58K job losses, all government jobs!

        So downsized government continues to be a big problem.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:39:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If we do get a double-dip though, I hope... (0+ / 0-)

          ... it happens this fall. It'll mean brutal numbers for Obama for a little while, but if we go into a recession and we're out by next spring, a reelection is at least doable.

          What would be awful would be a double-dip occurring next year. And what's scary is that nobody actually knows what'll happen next year. Projections that we'll see slow growth and little job growth assume no big negative external events, yet a Eurozone implosion or another oil price spike could easily stall or send us into a recession next year.

          •  We won't go in and out that quickly (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            A double-dip hitting an already-stagnant economy just won't have a quick exit.  At least I can't imagine it.

            Obama is going to have to try to break all historical precedent next year to win reelection.  We're just not going to have any kind of v-shaped recovery, he's going to have to make it on the combination of a bad GOP nominee and continually changing demographics that favor our party.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 09:53:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Trends, trends, trends. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              In the end, the trend matters more than anything else, or so I've read. I highly doubt, short of some miracle, we will get the robust recovery necessary to generate a lot of jobs very quickly. But if we get to the point where we are adding at least 200,000 or so jobs per month and there's an improvement in indicators that show people are at least more hopeful, I believe that will be enough to win. The problem is that it needs to take hold so that it can be rolled into a narrative and actually affect the perceptions people have.

          •  I'm DYING to know just what (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

            is going on in the heads of Wall Street types and businessmen of different types. At this point, it's clear the economy needs help; you might have been able to say we could avoid doing more back in March, but not now. Is there clamoring for something big, even if it's a second-best option like a big payroll tax cut? I've seen a few hedge fund managers say we need a new WPA-like program, but that's obviously more complicated than simple tax changes. And if these people are as nervous as I hope they'd be, why aren't they offering their help to the administration?

            Anyway, I've said before that I am convinced that, at minimum, we will get a payroll tax cut extension (and unemployment benefit extensions, too, I should add) into next year. Now, more than ever, I am convinced that is right. There's simply no reason not to do it, and you'd figure that Wall Street types and others recognize this.

    •  So much for jobless claims being predictive then (0+ / 0-)

      I can toss that spreadsheet away.

      •  no (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Sometimes you get a month that doesn't fit the pattern. New claims are correlated with layoffs, but the other piece of net job growth is new hires. New hires were apparently very low in August, perhaps in part because the DC/Wall Street/media freakout made firms more reluctant than usual to take new people on.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 02:28:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  2012 Prez: jobs, & politics of jobs (6+ / 0-)

    I won't provide a link because it's all over the news, net jobs for August was ZERO.  But unemployment didn't rise with population, it stayed at 9.1.  These are two separate surveys, so this kind of discrepancy isn't so unusual; we saw the opposite over the winter, when steep declines in unemployment didn't perfectly match up with monthly jobs numbers.  There is smoothing over time, which is what matters, and what we're seeing is flatness in employment.  Yes everyone will now worry anew that it's double-dip, but that's waaaaay premature, and I'm skeptical any double-dip is happening.  The jobs numbers for August were held down by the 45K Verizon strikers, and the BLS release explicitly cited the strike as a factor.  But even without that strike, 45K new jobs would be a crappy August.  And I understand June and July were revised downward!

    I continue to marvel most at the self-destructiveness of our own side, which frankly makes me think more than ever that Obama may, indeed, prove a one-termer.

    A couple examples:

    Oliver Willis tweeted this morning:

    whats even worse is that in addition to the fud from the right, is the impotence from the dems.

    And Laura Clawson's final sentence on the DK main page story on the unemployment report:  

    For Obama, it's yet another wake-up call to treat unemployment as an emergency that can't be fixed with small tweaks and timid policy.

    So audible voices of the the left are telling America that Obama is timid and worse than conservatives.  The messaging there to swing voters is:  "Obama is doing a bad job, so don't vote for him."  My examples above aren't isolated, they illustrate what's become a longtime pattern.

    Gee, I wonder how that will affect the election?

    And I wonder what these people on the left will have to say come 2013 under an all-GOP government?  Forget the fantasy of a Democratic takeover of the House, or preservation of the Senate, in spite of Obama losing--that's not going to happen.  Actually, I don't wonder at all:  they will say Obama should've "strong-armed" Congress into spending a lot more money, remaining in complete denial about what was ever politically possible, or what the court of public opinion would allow.

    Both political camps in America (maybe everywhere else, too, for all I know, but I haven't considered or studied it for other countries), at least in this young century, seem to thrive in opposition more than in power.

    But that becomes a race toward defeat, not power.  And too much of the left doesn't realize that race, and not a race toward policy victories, is the race they're winning.

    At this point, the only reason I put Obama's reelection chances at 50-50--and I still nervously do--is the poor quality of the alternatives.  Swing voters are not going to be happy about a President Romney or President Perry, and if they choose either, it will be with noses held.  But they easily could be unhappy enough with Obama that the choice is a wash, and they'd rather take their chances with a devil they don't know than a President whose governance they no longer trust.

    Going back to the anti-Obama left, I would like to know this, and it's an honest question:  did Republicans and conservatives react like this on the Iraq War in 2004 and 2006?  I don't remember that they did.  I remember them holding together in defense of their President and of the war, come hell or high water.  I was astounded by it at the time, but frankly they were smart to do that, they outperformed expectations because of it.  But I can be persuaded with enough evidence that my memory is wrong, that the right was much more divided than I recall.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:13:13 AM PDT

    •  Jobs & seats in Senate, House (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      True North, MichaelNY

      Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01) wisely highlighted jobs in a tin cup letter received today tied to the Labor Day holiday - remember Labor Day?

      It struck me as a shrewd move in a year when organized labor is under attack by the GOP agenda.  I hope the Labor Day theme will be picked up by other Democratic challengers and incumbents, this weekend.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:37:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The only reason I would give Obama better than (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, jncca

      50-50 is because there is no doubt in my mind that he could lose the popular vote by a small margin and win the electoral college thanks to states like Colorado and Virginia.  The GOP needs to win Pennsylvania if it can't win both of those states, which is still a stretch, and so far Obama has held up well in both.

      Even when national polling shows him tied with Romney he's still in a position to win the electoral college and I think his floor at this point is all of the Gore states which turns into a win once you add VA and CO.

      •  if Obama loses PA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        NC is the pivotal state. Obama can win every Kerry state besides PA as well as Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Virginia and still lose if he does not pick up NC as well. And NC seems closer to the tipping point than Ohio or Florida.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:46:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think we put too much stock (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, MichaelNY

        in individual state polling at this stage. If there's movement away from Obama on the national level during the campaign, the marginal states like NC will probably move away from us pretty decisively.

        •  Well sawolf is envisioning reverse 2000 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, itskevin, MichaelNY

          Yes state & national polling move with each other, and anything but a razor-thin popular vote loss almost certainly translates to an electoral vote loss for us.

          I agree that if we're losing the popular vote even by just 2 full points, then the GOP is 99.999% likely to win at least 270 electoral votes.

          But if we're down a point or less, then that easily can translate to a narrow electoral college victory.

          I do agree that it's highly unlikely that we win NC and lose the national popular vote; that's just not plausible unless there is weird Democratic underperformance in some key states like PA.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 09:44:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, I was thinking a narrow loss (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            such as within a percentage point.  The 1888 election comes to mind though some of the dynamics such as incumbency are different: The popular vote loser wins the electoral college thanks to a very narrow win in a big state (NY) which in Obama's case would be Pennsylvania.

            This could all easily change between now and nov 2012, but when all of those polling outfits showing Romney and Obama tied still show Obama winning VA, CO, and IA, not to mention states like WI or MI, then Republicans have to win everything else that's potentially winnable for them.  If I were the GOP I would be very worried if my winning strategy depended on winning Pennsylvania, especially with someone like Rick Perry.

            As for Perry himself, I could see him coming within 2-3 points of Obama and still getting obliterated in the electoral college if Obama wins VA, CO, NC, NV, PA, and FL.  I really don't see how he wins unless Obama sinks to Carter's level of not only approval, but also personal favorability.

            Here's what I think is Obama's baseline against Romney:
            http://www.270towin.com/...

            And against Perry:
            http://www.270towin.com/...

    •  It's really nothing new (16+ / 0-)

      Democrats and liberal-leaning individuals tend to be far more critical of our own side than Republicans are of their own. There are a number of reasons for this. Some of it is psychological -- numerous studies have shown that people of a liberal-minded bent tend to be more cynical, more open to new ideas, and less deferential to leaders.

      It's also worth noting that liberal-minded people typically represent a broader cross-section than the right. This isn't just true in the U.S. -- it's true abroad. If you look at politics in other countries, what's striking is that in virtually every country, the left is more fractious than the right, and that in countries where there are multiparty systems, there are typically more left-wing parties than right-wing ones.

      At a very basic level, this is understandable -- whereas the right (in any country) basically seeks to uphold the status quo in a manner that is friendly to the business establishment and social mainstream, the left seeks change and reform. Yet members of the left will always disagree over what "change" means. Some favor change in particular areas but not others. Others favor smaller changes compared to others.

      These kinds of strains then always create tension when the a center-left government or administration is in power. Inevitably, various parts of a coalition are in opposition. Leading an institution is inherently conservatizing, since institutional prerogatives and pressures will always temper the actions of its leaders. (That's something you see outside politics too - think about business or academia, where someone new comes into power with support from reformers, only to disappoint.)

      In most cases, this is a good thing. It leads to self-reflection, greater self-awareness, and overall, I'd argue, better government than the closed-circuit right. But the downside, of course, is that it's very difficult to maintain unity in the face of political attacks or challenges.

      What Obama faces is nothing new. Organized liberals -- opinion-writers, labor leaders, intellectuals -- have been fiercely critical pretty much every time a Democrat has been in power. That of course gets magnified and exacerbated when the economy is poor. The left's dissatisfaction with Clinton didn't hurt him overall because the economy was thriving. With Obama, though, it may be a different story.

      •  More people should read this than will do so here (4+ / 0-)

        Maybe they'll enjoy it in Top Comments, where I'm sending it.

        In my avatar, the blue bars show how many want Reps who COMPROMISE; the aqua bars show who wants Reps who STAND FAST no matter what. (Left=Overall; Center=Democrats; Right=Republicans.) And there's the problem!

        by Seneca Doane on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:05:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  good post (3+ / 0-)

        I think part of the problem is also that the right has proportionately more people who see political issues in terms of us/them. People on the center and left are more likely to see them in terms of right/wrong or effective/ineffective.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:52:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It makes perfect sense within the framework (0+ / 0-)

        of Jonathan Haidt's theory of moral reasoning.

        Liberals prioritize fairness, justice, harm and care over other moral axes. Thus, we're consequentialists and truth-tellers. If we see one of our own causing harm or injustice, we jump on it.

        Conservatives give equal weight to group identity and deference to authority. Thus, they're wagon-circlers. If they see one of their own causing harm or acting unfairly, they're as likely as not to defend him, even more so in front of people outside their group. And even more so if he's one of their leaders. And since they also give equal weight to purity, if he stands behind an absolutist position that they share, they're practically guaranteed to stand behind him.

        This is why I have a hard time understanding the faction here that brooks no criticism of President Obama. Perhaps they're taking a strictly utilitarian view, in which he's brought about more justice than injustice and more benefit than harm, on balance, and they're defending him on this basis. But they act like conservative wagon-circlers, demanding the presentation of a unified front against the Others.

        And if the Blue Sky Mining Company won't come to my rescue, if the sugar refining company won't save me, who's gonna save me?

        by Geenius at Wrok on Sat Sep 03, 2011 at 05:40:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Speaking as someone who's often a defender... (0+ / 0-)

          ... what bothers me isn't so much the criticism but the lack of proportion. I don't consider myself a knee-jerk defender - just someone who thinks on balance he's done a good job in difficult circumstances and done many good things. But I recognize that there are areas where he has fallen far short. For example, this whole ozone rule reversal is indefensible, as far as I'm concerned. And people are going to naturally have different priorities. If someone's key issue is civil liberties, for example, I can't blame them for viewing Obama in a fairly negative light.

          Still, what I think I dislike about some of the criticism is the nature of it. Many on the left seem to personalize politics to an unholy degree, which is of course just going to lead to cries of "betrayal!" I realize that some supporters are the same way, and you could also argue that the Obama campaign itself rested on personalization, so perhaps this is an example of them reaping what they sow. (I'd note that the left does periodically invest a huge degree of emotionalism into personalities, which tends to periodically produce this kind of disappointment.)

          I wish people were more willing to simply see that even the best people in politics are politicians. They're human beings, with faults. They'll sometimes make mistakes. Sometimes they'll make self-serving deals. That's life. No need to be happy about it - by all means, stress the disagreements, support advocacy groups that champion your issue, hell, cast a protest vote in a primary. But just keep a sense of proportion about the people involved.

          Personally, I've found it hard to comment on the site, not just because of the "bashers" but because the "defenses" are often just as bad, IMO. Knee-jerk regurgitations of WH talking points, 11-dimensional chess, etc. But I can usually get those nuances in day-to-day conversation or with close friends. Online commenting isn't necessarily the venue for that, perhaps.

    •  Exactly why I don't want Perry to win the GOP nod (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I don't like to bring up Carter-Obama analogies, but a 1980 scenario (in miniature) is fairly plausible to me. Carter, too, was sunk by external events, which led to victory a candidate long-thought too extreme to win (Ronald Reagan).

      •  I dismiss the 1980 precedent for 2 reasons (4+ / 0-)

        First, the electorate is radically different from 1980.  Reagan enjoyed an electorate that was roughly 90% white.  Next year it will be at most 73%, perhaps as low as 70%.  That favors us, and if Reagan had to deal with that in '80, election night would've been a nailbiter with perhaps no winner identified for days.

        Second, Perry is no Reagan.  The painting of Reagan as extremist at that time was itself misguided because he had, after all, been a 2-term Governor of a large purple swing state--that's what California was at that time.  So Reagan already had proven his skills at winning over a diverse electorate.  Perry has done no such thing.  Also Reagan's acting career proved a positive rather than a negative, because acting skills are only a plus in looking good on TV, while his career as a Governor offset any ability to mock him.  Perry doesn't have the same skills.

        The truth is there is no applicable precedent for next year.  Yes it's a given that a bad economy will hurt Obama a lot, and maybe there's no path to reelection.  And yes it's a given that swing voters won't vote happily for Perry or Romney, they'll need to be persuaded and maybe will snap back to Obama in spite of their frustrations.  But next year will have so many big distinctions from all previous Presidentials that there's no confident comparison.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:04:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've always wondered about the Perry-Reagan (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          comparisons. Your description of that time makes sense, if only because (a) you are usually right about a lot of things and (b) there's not a particularly strong body of evidence to back up the opposing argument.

        •  Also, in 1980 Carter's ratings were really low (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY, jncca, DCCyclone

          Carter's approval ratings throughout the summer and fall of 1980 were in the 20s and low 30s. George H.W. Bush's were also in the low 30s when he lost. If Obama's ratings get that bad, then yeah, he's toast. Right now, though, he's in the low 40s. If he can get back up to at least the mid-40s, he's probably narrowly favored.

          Had Carter had an approval rating in the low 40s, he might well have won, given doubts about Reagan.

          •  And one more thing...... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            This is important, voters went into the 1980 election angry at what was one-party Democratic rule, as we had both chambers of Congress in addition to the Presidency.  When voters are angry and there's one-party rule, it's easy to see who they are going to punish:  the party in power.  So 1980, 2006, and 2010 were all predictable outcomes given the intense voter anger.

            That the GOP controls the House now, and also has been loudly and visibly driving much of the agenda since taking over, is a radicallly different situation.  Voters hate Republicans generally and Congressional Republicans in particular more than their Democratic counterparts, and much more than Obama, and that puts voters in a quandary.  Voters are honestly torn about who to punish now.  They've punished everyone for 3 straight cycles, and the divided government we have still isn't working, and indeed might be working worse than ever as far as swing voters are concerned.  So I think they don't know what to do, and they're not likely to decide until very late.

            The closest parallel we faced to anger when there's a split government was in 2008 when Dems controlled both chambers of Congress but voters still punished Republicans because of anger at Bush.  But that, too, doesn't compare to now, because voters were angry only at Republicans, not at all at Democrats.

            Another rough parallel was 1992, but there wasn't the same anger at Congressional Democrats that year that there is at Congressional Republicans now--12 years of Republican Presidents gave cover to Congressional Dems.  But that may be as close a parallel as there is to today--still a very rough one at best.

            There just isn't a precedent that applies to today.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 03, 2011 at 09:37:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Do people listen to those on the left? (3+ / 0-)

      I ask this with only a slightly joking attitude.

      My point is that for all of the kvetching done on this site--much of it justified, I should add--most people will probably vote for him. That's important, but what about there being a perception that he's lost his base and thus making it seem like there's no reason to even consider voting for him? I can't see this narrative really taking hold unless it's true, and so far, it's not. The fact that voices like ours are marginalized might, for once, be a big help.

      •  I think polls matter more (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If a president has weak ratings overall, then discontent from the base becomes a bigger story for the press. You can debate whether it actually has an effect on those numbers, or whether it's merely a correlation, not a cause.

        If his numbers bounce back, then there will be a lot less mainstream reporting about discontent from the base. And while liberals may continue to have disagreements with this administration (many of them justified, mind you), you'll find even the tone changes.

        Examples: remember that after all the moaning and groaning about the Bush tax cuts deal in December, by January, when Obama was back in the low 50s, the tenor towards him even on pages like this one (dKos) had changed dramatically. Same after the Bin Laden raid.

        I think we'll see a small bounce next week between the jobs speech and the 9/11 commemoration. It probably won't last though, so we'd better hope that at least some small stimulative measures can make it through this fall, that the Fed takes more aggressive action, or that the economy makes a natural (and unexpected) rebound.

        •  I'm not expecting any bounce from those things (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I agree that the bottom line is polling.

          But I'll be shocked if either his jobs speech or the 9/11 commemoration help his numbers at all, even for a day.

          The jobs package is going to be a sustained push perhaps for the rest of Obama's term.  It's a serious legislative proposal, because that's what voters want him to offer, but one that he won't expect Congress to really act on.  So it's going to be a campaign offensive, not something that produces any short-term bump.

          I imagine some people might think 9/11 could produce a bump because Obama killed bin Laden, but I doubt we'll see that.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:16:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  So (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      This:

      Gee, I wonder how that will affect the election?

      A tweet and a single line in a blog post? You were right to be sarcastic, because the answer is obvious (even if it's the opposite of what you intended): not at all. Even if it's "part of a pattern," no one cares about this shit. Voters don't vote based on what bloggers are saying.

      As for this:

      So audible voices of the the left are telling America that Obama is timid and worse than conservatives.

      Worse than conservatives? I don't see that anywhere.

      Really don't understand what you're advocating. That Democrats unhappy with Obama should mute their criticms and clap louder? Again, It won't make one bit of difference what some people in the blogosphere say. Nothing that you read here is going to affect how tens of millions of Americans choose to vote next year. What's going to matter is the jobs situation, and whether it appears to voters whether the GOP can do any better than Obama has done.

      As for 2006, I don't even know what you're talking about. The GOP got swamped that year. So whether their public figures stuck together or not obviously didn't make a bit of difference.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:45:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  All fair points, to which I have some responses (0+ / 0-)

        I don't want to overstate the impact of a few internet postings, but yes I think there's a pattern of the liberal noise machine bashing their own President, and that undermines his support with swing voters.  Intraparty fratricide always hurts a party's image with voters outside the party.  No it's not universal, and no most voters aren't following politics on Twitter or reading blogs, but this stuff extends to the news they actually do see, even if not as loud, and creates a mindset of "even the people who are supposed to love Obama now hate him, so why in the world should I vote for him?"

        No I don't expect people to clap louder.  I recently started following some people on Twitter who really are Obama sycophants, to the point of annoying me even though I'm a loyalist myself.  But a lot of liberal criticism of Obama is thoughtless and unconsidered, and comes from an echo chamber that is unfamiliar with how and what swing voters really think.  I think that stuff, when magnified and multiplied, gets damaging.

        Regarding 2006, my point is that the GOP did not really get its clock cleaned nearly as much as they could have.  They lost 30 House seats, we were ecstatic just to get back the House, but I remember Carville and some others were frustrated we didn't get a bunch more.  And I, too, found it a slight bit dispiriting how many seats we left on the table.  Virtually running the table on the close Senate races to take back that chamber further muted any unhappiness, but I don't think there's any question that Republicans saved a bunch of seats they easily could've lost.  The fact that we went ahead and gained 24 more 2 years later, and Republicans hit the motherlode with 63(!) 2 years after that, reinforces that we probably underperformed in 2006.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:10:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Capuano out for MA-Sen (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    Not a surprise, really.  So, it's going to be Warren or bust (the other guys aren't even worth mentioning).

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:36:45 AM PDT

    •  I don't quite buy that take (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I don't buy the presumption so many people want to make that Liz Warren is either the strongest general election candidate or the frontrunner in the primary.  I've seen ZERO evidence that primary or general election voters see her the way that the netroots and Beltway campaign professionals see her.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:42:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree, but (6+ / 0-)

        Do the remaining candidates have even that much behind them?  Nature abhors a vacuum and netroots+Beltway could easily be enough to win a MA primary if no other primary candidate gets another source of support.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:59:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  baseline for a Dem statewide in Mass is what? (4+ / 0-)

          46%? I gotta think as long as she campaigns (not like Choakley) and raises some good money (netroots/establishment PACs will write checks/individuals pissed she didn't even get nominated/etc) she'll be no worse than any other candidate.
          And I'd love to see her in the senate as a gaint fuck you to republicans.

        •  No they don't, but that doesn't mean... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          ...primary voters won't eventually rally to Setti Warren or someone else over Liz Warren.

          These Democrats are all such big unknowns, Liz Warren included, that candidates and campaigns are going to be huge in deciding the outcome.  And hype does not make for a skilled candidate or a sound campaign.

          The fact that Liz Warren has never run for anything in her life undermines her hype.  She's basically trying to be the Ron Johnson of 2012, which is doable but she's got nothing to entitle her to a presumption she can do that.

          I'll say this, if she is sworn in as a U.S. Senator in January 2013, she will be the crown jewel of netroots activism since the internet's dawn.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 09:49:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know, since (0+ / 0-)

            As you say, she seems to have DC backing as well as netroots (can I point out how much I hate that word?) backing.  I think the truest crown jewel would be a case where netroots backing trumped D.C. backing.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:30:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe no one will remember this, but... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...the first mentions of Liz Warren as the desired Senate recruit I ever saw were on the internet, started or retweeted (can't remember which) by Markos.  The early discussion was all manufactured by the netroots.

              It was elections-as-a-board game as we all play it here for fun on DKE and before that SSP.  And for that reason I never took it seriously.

              But then we started getting wind that professional Beltway Dems started thinking the same about her, which just astounded me.

              I do take the hype much more seriously if smart people at the DSCC want her, and she actually wants to run.  But it's still just hype until she proves she's a good candidate and runs a good campaign.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:56:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Larry Sabato thinks that she is... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...the only one out there that could potentially beat Scott Brown.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 03:51:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I was just discussing with my father (5+ / 0-)

    that Perry just will not appeal to suburban voters.  No way.  His schtick may kinda work in Texas, but it won't work in any region that isn't already deep red.  In terms of Oregon, our area of expertise, we agreed that he wouldn't even play that well in the rural Willamette Valley, where someone like Bachmann may, or in Southern Oregon, only in Eastern Oregon, where ranchers will relate to the cowboy Perry.  Obama is not the candidate that he was in 2008, but neither is Perry McCain, and given Perry's lack of appeal mentioned above, we expect a map in our state a lot like 2008: Obama wins or comes within a couple hundred votes of winning every county that a Democrat possibly could, and even one or two that they shouldn't.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 07:46:30 AM PDT

    •  this (5+ / 0-)

      People forget that McCain went into the 2008 campaign with very good favorables and if I'm not mistaken had decent ratings even at the end of it. He actually did consistently better than "generic Republican" in trial matchups, whereas almost all candidates will do worse than generic R or generic D. Perry is not especially popular even in Texas and his favorables are probably going to look like Newt's by the time the other Reeps and then the Dems are done unloading on him.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:12:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How can Perry be attacked? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        True North, MichaelNY

        There's the obvious ways--his statements concerning Social Security and Medicare--but what else? Will any punches be related to his Christian identity, not by Democrats but by association from Republicans? I ask because Romney's big demographic asset--his Mormonism--is limited to a few areas out West and could easily be offset by unfortunate bigotry. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Perry get even more support from his base if they feel like he's being maligned because of his faith, even if such an attack only exists in their heads.

        •  Perry (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          The other Reeps could use examples of cronyism/corruption from Texas or hit him from the right on immigration. The Dems could use the cronyism issue but would mostly have to beat him up on his expressed far-right views on bread and butter issues. I wouldn't touch the religion issue with a 10-foot pole. The Dems will need the votes of a lot of evangelicals and others who support the safety net even if they may be socially conservative.  
           

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:50:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  attacking religion (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            is never a good idea in campaigns.

            see libby dole, jack conway, and richard nixon

            18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 01:02:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  How would Perry lose votes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that Bachmann may have gotten?

      •  Michelle doesn't come off as a jackass (4+ / 0-)

        and a cowboy like Perry does.  She seems like a suburban mom, like she could be an accountant or a tax lawyer (heh).  Her religious right-ism would play well with the folks in Linn, Yamhill, and the more rural and small town parts of Marion, Clackamas, and Polk counties.  Part of that area has been called Oregon's bible belt.

        Perry would do well in Linn County, but Polk doesn't cotton much for anti-government types.  It's got a college town and part of Salem (the state capitol), with a lot of state workers.  Obama nearly won it.  Yamhill is becoming more Hispanic and even a bit suburban, and so Obama even came close there.  Perry might do well enough in Medford that Obama wouldn't win Jackson County again, but he'd still do better in Southern Oregon than not, and would likely win Wasco County and maybe Deschutes, so one or two counties in Eastern Oregon.  Heck, Obama might even win Coos this time if he faces Perry, and so he'd win almost the whole coast.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:31:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If this is true, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      then it's really an underrated factor. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Obama do worse in certain areas than he did in 2008, but a loss is not the end of the world, depending on the margin. In other words, if Perry's characteristics you describe prevent him from winning certain areas like Romney might, it's a big help.

  •  NY 9 could easily be lost (0+ / 0-)

    Weprin has been a thoroughly lackluster candidate. I heard him on Brian Lehrer a few weeks ago, and he seemed to know almost nothing about his district. He did a lot of ..." umm" ... and hemming and hawing before every answer. When he did give answers, they were pretty vague, clearly indicating his basic lack of knowledge of his districts' needs and make up, such as minority population, unemployment, etc. Any candidate worth his salt in New York knows to be well prepared before going on Lehrer's show, because he always asks tough questions, and he will challenge incredulous answers or statements. Ed Koch has also sided with the Republican, purely as a protest to Obama's Israel policy. There are a lot of orthodox Jews in this district who could be easily persuaded to vote for the Republican just on this one issue. Ed Koch is basically an old fool that no one really listens to anymore, but Turner has been persuasive on this point. Once again, the Dems may be close to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

  •  NC Redistricting maps submitted today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    to the DOJ and DC court:

    An attorney for the Senate Redistricting Committee says the Legislature and the Attorney General's Office planned to file the district lines Friday with the U.S. Department of Justice and a federal court in Washington.

    The filings mark a two-pronged approach by Republican legislative leaders to get a seal of approval that the boundaries approved by the General Assembly in July comply with the federal Voting Rights Act. Democratic legislators say they don't.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Let the games begin.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 08:11:42 AM PDT

  •  mini preview on WV-gov (0+ / 0-)
  •  WA-1 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I went to a Watkins event (free), and he said that he was thinking that redistricting was going to shift the district from a D+10 or so to a D+1 district, and that was the environment he was planning around.

    Also, Watkins said that if Kusinish wanted to visit, Watkins would buy him a plane ticket.

    "All things are not equally true. It is time to face reality." -Al Gore

    by Geek of all trades on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 10:54:03 AM PDT

  •  Miller/Macomb MI--Unbelievable! (0+ / 0-)

    Candice Miller's uncontested tenure in Macomb County, Michigan has always been unbelievable to me. Her husband was a base commander and she rolled in not on Republican issues but on her promise to save the base and the county's fragile economy. The base is no longer threatened, but no one challenges her. Within a month of taking office she was in trouble for a heavy ethics violation for which she was censured.

    Her record is totally anti-jobs, anti-union and anti-middle class--exactly what Macomb County, Michigan doesn't need. Yet in the last nine years no one of any substance has bothered to challenge her.

    This is why the Michigan Democratic Party is in such a shambles.

    Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.

    by MrMichaelMT on Fri Sep 02, 2011 at 11:59:04 AM PDT

  •  MI-Sen: Confused (0+ / 0-)

    It seems like I've seen this story in the digest almost every day this week.  In fact, I think the current item is literally a word-for-word repost from the yesterday's digest.  What's that about?

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