Kentucky: Not likely to be a coin flip in 2012
Before getting to the raw numbers out of the Bluegrass State, a caveat in the "cool your jets" vein. This PPP poll is not based on an anticipated 2012 electorate, but rather based on a sample of voters likely to turn out in two months for the gubernatorial election.
As election junkies know, the GOP nominee in that race (David Williams) is an underfunded train wreck of a candidate. As a result, he is getting blown out by Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear. Republicans are, rightfully, a bit pessimistic about their chances in November. As a result, turnout among Republicans is expected to be week. The likely voter sample here voted 48-44 for John McCain in 2008. McCain, of course, easily carried the state (57-41).
With that bit of information in mind, let's explore the presidential numbers:
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 8/25-8/28. Likely 2011 voters. MoE +/- 4.0%. (No Trendlines)
Mitt Romney (R): 48
Barack Obama (D): 40
Rick Perry (R): 49
Barack Obama (D): 42
Michele Bachmann (R): 46
Barack Obama (D): 43
Barack Obama (D): 47
Newt Gingrich (R): 44
Barack Obama (D): 48
Sarah Palin (R): 44
Even in the worst-case scenario, Obama halved his 2008 margin of defeat. And, against the weakest prospects in the GOP field, Obama actually reclaimed a modest lead. This is a marked difference from other summer polling this year, virtually all of which has shown Obama running behind his 2008 margins when paired against the more viable GOP contenders.
This is, as mentioned earlier, entirely a function of the suppressed GOP electorate this Fall. The 2008 exit polls out of the Bluegrass State split 47-38 Democratic. The sample here split 55-36 Democratic. Clearly, a lot of Republicans are staying home this year. Just as clearly, they are liable to head back to the polls in 2012, a fact not lost on PPP's own Tom Jensen, who noted that:
In the end, Obama won't win Kentucky--not even close. Republican voters don't seem too jazzed up by David Williams, so Democrats might have a good year this fall. But conservatives will be back out in force next year, and Kentucky won't be near the top of any candidate's travel itinerary.
Even in this decidedly amenable sample of voters, Obama still suffers from pretty miserable job approval in Kentucky (39-56). One expects that, in spite of the better-than-expected numbers, Kentucky will not make it onto any target lists unless Williams implodes to such an awesome extent that he does lasting damage to the GOP brand name here.