"Dreamers"—undocumented high school grads protesting for a right to live the American dream
In my
previous post, people got into a debate over whether the outsized drop in Latino support for Obama (20 points from yearly high, compared to 7 points for African Americans and 10 points for whites) was just a function of the shitty economy, rather than disgust over the administration's immigration policy.
Here's some further insight from Alicia Mendendez (daughter of Bob) and pollster Matt Barreto:
Yesterday, Latino Decision released a new poll which found Obama’s approval numbers dipping among Latinos. Here, Latino Decisions pollster Matt Barreto weighs in on the importance of immigration to young Latinos, how the new changes in prosecutorial discretion could affect Obama’s approval ratings, and who Latino voters will hold accountable for the debt deal.
The economy has shot back to being the #1 issue.
MB: The economy and immigration have both been mentioned at top issues of concern by Latino voters since SB1070 took center stage in the Spring of 2010. For most of 2010 the economy was listed as the top issue, and immigration as the number two issue, especially as the election neared and the candidates and the media talked non-stop about the economy. Into 2011 as more and more media attention in the Latino community focused on immigration and deportations, immigration popped up as the top issue. This was also around the time that President Obama hosted multiple meetings on immigration, and gave the speech in El Paso. Now, with the extensive focus on the debt ceiling in August, we see the economy returning as the top issue, however immigration remains a very important issue as well to Latino voters.
Immigration reform/DREAM was most important to Millennials and young Gen X’ers — 45% named it as their main issue, compare to 37% of respondents over all. Was that surprising at all given that they are the most likely to be American-born?
MB: Immigration reform, and especially support for the DREAM Act has become a very significant issue with younger Latinos. This is because they are more likely to be in contact, through their extensive social networks, with DREAM Act-eligible Latinos. When a young undocumented college student gets detained or deported, news spreads very quickly across facebook and twitter, and our survey data suggests younger Latinos are very, very committed to this issue. Even as the younger population tends to be heavily U.S. born, we know that their parents or grandparents are immigrants. So when the immigration issue comes up you are speaking about their friends, and their parents, so it becomes very personal. While they also worry about their future in terms of the economy, jobs, the issue of immigration has become very personal, and symbolically important. In our previous poll in June 2011, we found that 59% of Latinos age 18-35 said they personally knew an undocumented immigrant, the highest of any age group. This month in August 2011, we found that 82% of Latinos age 18-35 support the state level DREAM Act to provide in-state tuition to undocumented immigrants who are accepted to college.
Yes, the economy is huge in the Latino community, as it has been disproportionately been affected by the downturn. But immigration looms large, so much so that it ping-pongs back and forth between the first and second slots as "most important." There's an inherent problem in polling A OR B-style questions, since for most Latinos, both issues are of great importance.
But in case you're wondering why immigration is particularly salient in my community:
53% of poll respondents reported personally knowing an undocumented person, whether a relative, friend, or co-worker. Additionally, 25% of respondents reported personally knowing someone who “faced detention or deportation for immigration reasons.” [...]
According to Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice Education Fund, “These are remarkable findings. It shows that immigration is the top priority among Latinos, and why this is the case. This issue is personal. It's about family, future and full acceptance.
Every time someone rails against immigrants, it's an attack on our very self-identity as Americans, it's an attack on our families, and it's an attack on our broader community. While jobs may impact the community more directly, rationally speaking, immigration hits us at an emotional level. That's why it competes so strongly against the economic concerns that dominate the top concerns of other groups.
It's particularly interesting how immigration rates with the youngest Latinos. Given the difficulties in turning out youth voters, and given how strongly they vote for Democrats, giving them any reason to stay home election day is catastrophic.
One final thought for the "stop being mean to Obama!" crowd. Here's the Latino voter intensity numbers from the poll discussed above:
And it gets worse:
Currently, only 38% of Latino voters are certain they will vote for the president next year. This number was 43% in February, when impreMedia/Latino Decisions did a similar poll, and it had increased to 49% in June after the capture of Osama bin Laden and Obama’s speech in El Paso reaffirming his support on immigration.
With numbers like that, Obama will have a hard time winning Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and other swing states with heavy (non-Cuban) Latino populations. So you can complain about people pointing out the obvious (Obama is in the gutter) and demand people cheer on his failed approach, or you can push for a new approach, one that actually wins votes.
This has nothing to do with the "professional left." Shooting the messenger never won an election.