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Senate:

MO-Sen: For a while now, I've been hearing people say—people who've seen him up close—that Republican Rep. Todd Akin is actually pretty dumb. I believe that more and more each passing day, especially when he's capable of the following statement about Medicare: “I don’t find in the Constitution that it is the job of the government to provide health care.” Is Akin sure he wants to keep saying stuff like that?

NV-Sen: Tell me if I'm wrong on this one, because I have no interest in being a homer, but this page A1 NYT piece on Shelley Berkley allegedly using her influence to try to help her husband's nephrology practice seems like it's less than it's cracked up to be. Read the article and judge yourself, but this strikes me as a classic case of the Times getting very worked up about the confluence of money and politics and deciding that there's inevitably corruption when the two intersect. One over-heated line in the piece really bothers me, where reporter Eric Lipton says that Berkley's behavior is "striking even among her peers on Capitol Hill" — but offers absolutely zero attempt at any kind of comparisons with other lawmakers. Hell, one of the letters Berkley sent that the Times grouses about—aimed at saving Nevada's only kidney transplant center—was even co-signed by Dean Heller, Berkley's Republican opponent… a fact the Times manages to elide entirely. Anyhow, I don't dispute that the optics aren't good, and it's certainly possible Berkley has acted impurely, so this story could very well prove damaging. But I think the jury's out for now.

VA-Sen, VA-03: Entirely unsurprising, but nonetheless, Rep. Bobby Scott says he won't seek the Democratic nomination for Senate and will instead endorse ex-Gov. Tim Kaine. Scott of course claims he could have won the nod, but I am very skeptical. In any case, Scott had also said more than once that he'd decide in early July, but he obviously missed that timetable by a couple of months. It sounds like he wanted to await the outcome of congressional redistricting, but with that process delayed indefinitely (see VA redistricting bullet below), it seems like it was finally time to make a choice.

WA-Sen: The Everett Herald's Jerry Cornfield says that freshman state Sen. Michael Baumgartner is supposedly being pushed to run for Senate by his fellow Republicans, who so far have come up empty in their search for a candidate to take on Sen. Maria Cantwell.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: WMUR's Josh McElveen tweets that Dem Gov. John Lynch will announce whether he's seeking a fifth two-year term "in a couple of weeks."

MT-Gov: Democratic AG Steve Bullock will reportedly make a formal announcement that he's joining the gubernatorial race today.

WV-Gov: I told you I didn't feel so great about that DGA poll which had Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin up 47-33 over businessman Bill Maloney. Tom Jensen tweets that the race is "now in single digits" and that he'll have full numbers out today.

Meanwhile, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce is out with a poll of its own, but they didn't exactly go top shelf. The poll, from local outfit R.L. Repass & Partners, survey a mere 300 respondents and took a leisurely 12 days in the middle of August to do so. It also wound up with a ton of undecideds (31%), and found acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin with just 40%. Fortunately, businessman Bill Maloney was all the way back at 24%, but I think you'd be hard-pressed to call this poll particularly good news — especially since the Chamber looks likely to endorse Tomblin.

House:

CA-35: Let's call this the least surprising press release of the cycle. Back in June, state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod declared: “I’m in, I’m in, I’m in, I’m in!" At the time, this district was known as "Ontario-Pomona," but now that it has an official number (35), I guess Negrete McLeod is making it official, too.

IA-01, IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Dem Rep. Bruce Braley has lately been holding events outside of his 1st Congressional District, leading a number of in-state political observers to speculate that he's looking at either a gubernatorial or Senate run in 2014. (Some even suggest that Sen. Tom Harkin is grooming him as his successor.) Braley responds by saying he's spending time in Des Moines (which lies just to the southwest of IA-01) because the media market there covers new parts of his district. Seems kinda thin….

IL-14: Former McHenry (pop. 25K) Alderman Frank McClatchey, who also served as the eponymous county's Democratic chair in the 1990s, says he'll run for Congress in the redrawn 14th CD. This seat was deliberately designed as a GOP vote sink (Democrats got crushed here in 2010), so it would take some doing to turn this seat blue. However, there is a ray of hope: We could see a Republican primary mashup between Rep. Randy Hultgren (who has already said he'll seek re-election here) and Rep. Joe Walsh (who may). If they utterly nuke each other — and especially if Walsh somehow emerges the victor — then we may just have a shot here.

IN-08: Patrick Scates, a former district director for ex-Rep. Brad Ellsworth, says he may join the Democratic field looking to win this seat back from GOP freshman Larry Buchson. Scates would join state Rep. Dave Crooks and attorney Terry White in the race. No word on whether Ellsworth might endorse Scates, but in the past he's had some kind words for his one-time aide, who came over to Ellsworth's staff on a personal recommendation from Barack Obama.

KY-03: Dem Rep. John Yarmuth just announced that he's seeking a fourth term, and said so specifically to combat rumors that he might have had other plans. I hadn't heard an inkling about any retirement speculation, but Ryan Alessi points to a Roll Call piece from earlier this year which pointed out that Yarmuth raised only $34K in the second quarter. Yarmuth says he'd been holding off on fundraising on account of Kentucky's off-year statewide races this fall, but promises a "much more impressive" third quarter.

MI-13: Southfield (pop. 72K) Mayor Brenda Lawrence has upgraded from "actively looking" to "announcing soon" that she'll challenge freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke in the Democratic primary.

NC-04: Rep. David Price previously sent out a fundraising email which indicated he'd seek re-election, and now he's confirmed that at a recent town hall. Price will face off in the Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Brad Miller.

NC-11: Roll Call says that real estate investor Mark Meadows is likely to seek the GOP nod to challenge Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, and that he plans to self-fund a "significant amount."

NE-02: Two Some Dudes are better than one: Republican Rep. Lee Terry, an occasional apostate, just acquired his second primary challenger, 72-year-old math professor Jack Heidel. Not that I think either Heidel or Brett Lindstrom, a 30-year-old one-time college football player, are much of a threat to Terry, but when you're the incumbent, you'd almost always prefer to face a divided opposition.

NV-02: Kate Marshall is out with what looks to be her final ad of the race (election day is Tuesday):

Given the DCCC's total abdication here, and the absence of any positive internal polling, it's hard to see how Marshall could pull off an upset. The spending imbalance is laid out starkly in Ray Hagar's summary — check out the left-hand sidebar for the rundown.

NY-09: Republican pollster Magellan is out with a new poll in the special election, and they find GOPer Bob Turner leading David Weprin 45-40, with 3% for Christopher Hoeppner, who is running under the Socialist Workers Party banner. Please note that this poll, Rasmussen-like, was in the field for just a single day — and also somehow came back with a whopping 2,055 respondents. (Read this post by Nate Silver to understand why such short sample periods can be so problematic.) Magellan also put some questions before the head-to-heads which it shouldn't have, like "right track/wrong track" and an issue-based question about federal priorities. What's most telling to me, though, is that even Turner's own internal polling isn't this optimistic — his survey from McLaughlin & Associates had the race at 42-42. So I'm a bit skeptical.

OK-02: As expected, businessman Markwayne Mullin (already in the running for one of the best names of the cycle, though still behind Beto O'Rourke) launched his campaign for the Republican nomination in the open seat race in Oklahoma's 2nd CD.

TX-36: That's a lot of gold fillings: Usually I don't think of dentists as the kind of guys who might self-fund their own political campaigns, but Shira Toeplitz suggests that Republican Brian Babin may do just that. Babin is interested in a run in the new 36th CD, but he hasn't committed to putting his own money into the race just yet. Note: State Sen. Mike Jackson is already in the race, and former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove (yes, that's his real name) may also join.

WV-01: If you've been reading the tea leaves carefully (and we're always careful never to throw away the dregs without looking first here at Daily Kos Elections), then this won't be a surprise. Ex-state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who beat Dem Rep. Alan Mollohan in last year's primary but lost by less than 1% in the general election, just announced that he'll seek a rematch against GOP freshman David McKinley. Oliverio had been seen around the state capitol building while his former colleagues were hashing out a new redistricting map — and the fact that they left prior district lines virtually unchanged is probably a good thing for him. Given the difficulty of the district, Oliverio outperformed expectations considerably in 2010 (best seen visually here).

Other Races:

NH Executive Council: Democratic operative Colin Van Ostern, who managed Ann McLane Kuster to within a point-and-a-half of victory during last year's red storm, is running for office himself. Van Ostern is seeking a spot on New Hampshire's unusual five-person Executive Council, which has veto power over many gubernatorial decisions that most states reserve exclusively to their governors. The current council is composed entirely of three Republicans and two Democrats and played a key role in cutting off funding for Planned Parenthood earlier this year. Van Ostern is running in the swingy District 2 against Daniel St. Hilaire, and picking up this seat will be of critical importance if Democrats don't keep the governor's mansion next year — and even if they do.

• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso gives us some background on last night's special in New Hampshire:

New Hampshire House, Rockingham-14: Another open Republican seat in the massive New Hampshire House of Representatives. This is normally a pretty Republican seat, having gone 51-48 McCain in '08 and 53-44 Stephen in '10, but there's a split among Republicans: The Republican nominee is firefighter Kevin Janvrin, but some Republicans feel he is a RINO, and are instead backing Libertarian nominee Brendan Kelly, a Selectman in Seabrook. Democrats nominated Ryan Mahoney, a consultant who was one of the Democrats' candidates in the district last year. I'm not sure if this split will be enough for Mahoney to pull off an upset, but it's an interesting race nonetheless. The district elected two Democrats and two Republicans in '06, three Republicans and one Democrat in '08, and four Republicans in '10.

Unfortunately, Johnny updates, Janvrin held this seat for his party, winning 45-37 over Mahoney. Libertarian Brendan Kelly's 17% wasn't quite enough to split the vote and tip the election to the Democrats.

Grab Bag:

• NY Election Law: Remember that crazy New York election law I first brought up last Friday, which purports to require that campaigns disclose a whole mess of details about any polls they release to the public? Well, I emailed the Board of Elections about it, and this is the response I got:

Thank you for contacting the NYS Board of Elections concerning filings for public opinion polls.

We do not post the polls on the website. If you wish to know if a particular campaign has filed a poll please submit a FOIL request through the website under the link for "Public Information".

So no online database, but could there really be an archive of this information somewhere? You better believe I'll be filing a freedom of information request!

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: Republicans seldom show much shame when trying to mau-mau the refs, and AG Tom Horne is proving to be an exemplar of the form. Under fire from his predecessor for publicizing an investigation into independent redistricting commission, Horne isn't dialing things back but ratcheting things up and comparing the situation to the greatest constitutional crisis of the last hundred years. Says Horne of the commissioners: “They’re stonewalling. And as I’ve said before, it didn’t work in Watergate and it won’t work now.”

To show you what a fraud this all is, GOP state Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs recently demanded some 4,000 pages of documents from the commission under a freedom-of-information request, as part of this ongoing intimidation campaign, and then accused the commission of "stonewalling" — three days after they made all of the documents available. Even more pathetic, even after two weeks, Biggs still hadn't sent anyone to review the materials. I just hope the commissioners stay strong in the face of this assault. This also ought to be a demonstration that states which use independent commissions can get just as rancid as place which do redistricting the old-fashioned way.

ME Redistricting: Eddie in ME has a great, in-depth look at why Republicans in the state legislature might not ram through redistricting on a simple majority vote, instead of reaching a deal with Democrats to achieve a supermajority. The (very) short answer is that if a bill is passed by 50%+1, it's subject to being overturned at the ballot box; legislation passed with two-thirds in favor is immune. But click the link for much more detail.

NJ Redistricting: New Jersey's redistricting commission just began work yesterday, though it doesn't have to produce a new congressional map until Jan. 17. The commission is composed of six Democrats and six Republicans, with a tiebreaking 13th member serving as commissioner. The man on the hot seat is former state AG John Farmer, whom we discussed when he was first selected.

NM Redistricting: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez has convened a special session of the legislature, ostensibly to deal with redistricting. But Martinez also wants the Dem-controlled lege to reconsider several bills on unrelated subjects that lawmakers already voted down during the regular session, which could delay work on new maps. The real issue will be, of course, whether a compromise redistricting plan can be reached, or whether the entire issue winds up in the courts.

TX Redistricting: Michael Li of the very straightforwardly-named Texas Redistricting blog has an excellent preview of the major redistricting trial that started in San Antonio yesterday. If you want to understand who all the key players are and what major issues will be decided, I highly recommend his summary — it's much better than all the tradmed pieces I've read about the trial, which is supposed to last until Sept. 16. A ruling may not happen until late this year, especially since the San Antonio court is awaiting the outcome of the other key case hearing Texas redistricting issues: the preclearance suit in Washington, DC, which may not issue a decision until Thanksgiving.

VA Redistricting: It sounds like the state legislature is giving up on reaching a compromise congressional map, something Democrats and Republicans had supposedly been working on during a special session this summer. (You can see both sides' proposal here.) Anita Kumar at the Washington Post says that lawmakers might postpone further discussions "at least until November," and may wind up kicking the whole thing to the courts. For Democrats, that's probably the best-case scenario.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (10+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 05:00:03 AM PDT

  •  NH State House (7+ / 0-)

    The guy who won is a liberal Republican who said that his elections was a repudiation of the tea party.  He also opposes right-to-work.

    How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

    by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 05:53:36 AM PDT

  •  Not unexpected Emily's List is officially behind (6+ / 0-)

    Tammy Baldwin. They have put her on the "recommended" list this morning.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    http://emilyslist.org/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 05:55:10 AM PDT

  •  The NYT article on Berkley is bunk (8+ / 0-)

    Ask any health care advocate in Washington (I'm one of them) and they'll tell you that when you want to advance the cause of expanding health care and especially health research, you go to Shelley Berkley on the D side, and usually Michael Burgess of Texas on the R side (this has expanded somewhat with the 2010 elections and some Rs who need Democratic and indy voters to stay in office). Of course she has advocated for greater kidney care--she always advocates for greater care. No one in Congress has been a better friend to sufferers of osteoporosis, kidney disease, or a variety of other ailments than Berkley.

    I wish she had commented for that article. If memory serves, her first date with her husband involved him giving her a medical examination. She's a great champion for those of us who work every day to increase federally funded medical research and medical care.

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:17:16 AM PDT

  •  Teh snappy is back! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    supercereal, bythesea

    Dkos was a chore to load recently, but now it's much better.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:19:31 AM PDT

  •  Bad juju in Michigan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Egalitare, jncca
    • MI-13: Southfield (pop. 72K) Mayor Brenda Lawrence has upgraded from "actively looking" to "announcing soon" that she'll challenge freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke in the Democratic primary.

    Brenda Lawrence needs to take her singularly high opinion of herself and stuff it somewhere. Hansen Clarke is a smart, hard-working, service-oriented legislator who doesn't deserve a primary challenge from this bozo.

    •  I grew up in Southfield, and am surprised (0+ / 0-)

      to see its population down to 72,000. It was 110,000 in the 70's.

      Form follows function -- Louis Sullivan

      by Spud1 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:51:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A couple of points: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      1. Yes, Hansen Clarke is doing a great job in his first term. However, as sucky as the GOP gerrymandering is, it's also true that he doesn't live in the (new) 14th district.

      2. Lawrence was our Lt. Gov. candidate last year, and has been re-elected as Southfield mayor twice, most recently with over 85% of the vote.

      3. My own Congressman, Gary Peters (MI-09, which has been merged into Sandy Levin's district), is rumored to be planning on challenging Clarke in the new MI-14 as well, now that he's been squeezed out of his own district. Peters has done a fantastic job overall so far in his 2 terms (except for pushing to extend the Bush tax cuts, that is). Will you call him a "bozo" as well if he does decide to jump into the race?

      I happen to be Brenda Lawrence's website developer, which obviously biases me towards her; plus, Southfield loves her, and she is the only one of the three who actually live in the district. However, I also happen to live in Gary Peters' district, and have great respect for (most of) his performance in Congress so far. At the same time, I agree that Clarke is doing a great job as well (and lord knows I'm thankful to him for shoving Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick out of the way).

      NONE OF THEM is the incumbent Congressman in this new district, since the 2 incumbent Congressmen don't live in the district, and the one who does isn't a member of Congress yet.

      My point is that all three of these folks would do a great job. It absolutely stinks that the GOP has created this situation, but of course that was the whole point, and it is what it is now.

      •  Well, there's this (0+ / 0-)

        Peters is unfortunately my rep, too, and I will never support him again after his disgusting display in support of the Bush tax cuts for his chamber pals.

        Ask Virg Bernero's people how happy they were being saddled with that half-wit on the ticket. Think two-ton anchor on a stormy sea.

        I will actively support Hansen in whatever he chooses to do. I believe he is what's needed in Congress.

        •  OK, so it sounds like your main issue is... (0+ / 0-)

          ...with Lawrence specifically (and Peters, it appears), not with Clarke facing a primary challenger in and of itself.

          In other words, you strongly support Clarke and strongly dislike Lawrence and Peters; fair enough.

          I guess my point is, let's suppose that another figure who you respect as much as Clarke (I dunno...Alan Grayson, Howard Dean, Barney Frank or whomever, assuming that they lived in/next to the new 14th district) were to challenge him, would you rip on them for doing so as well?

          Not trying to criticize here, just wondering if it's the specific people involved, or the concept of primarying a good incumbent in general that you dislike.

  •  "Self funding" of political campaigns (0+ / 0-)
    NC-11: Roll Call says that real estate investor Mark Meadows is likely to seek the GOP nod to challenge Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, and that he plans to self-fund a "significant amount."

    Now, just how much does a U.S. congressman make?  I've always been just totally suspicious when I hear that someone is funding a big portion of their own campaign for public office.  First, and most obviously, if someone isn't popular enough to get campaign donations for his/her efforts, then just how good a candidate could they be?  Second, I wonder just how much money these candidates realize beyond their salaries and bennies when/if they do get into office.  

    With the mood of the SCOTUS these days I know this isn't possible, but I'd be totally in favor of limiting the amount of money any political candidate could put into their own campaign.  Better yet, I'd LOVE to see VOE (voter owned elections) make a comeback.  

    Maybe I'm being silly to think this would make for far better candidates and much fairer system by which we elect our representatives.

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:48:31 AM PDT

  •  Maine GOP will try to ram their preferred (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    redistricting map through, the questions are:

    How will they try it?
    Will there be any public outcry against it?

    State law (21-A MRSA §1206) requires a 2/3 vote in both houses of the Legislature to enact a new map (it then goes to the Governor for his signature). But Republicans argue that legislators are not bound by statute, and are already saying they will work around the 2/3 requirement using the phrase, "notwithstanding any other law," to allow for a simple majority for passage.

    The Legislative Apportionment Commission recommended the Democratic map at their meeting on 30 August, one that moves 7 towns and 19,000 people from one district to another (the GOP scheme moves 139 towns and 360,000).

    So far, Mainers have shown little interest in this (it has been summer, after all). The Legislature convenes for a Special Session to take up redistricting on 27 September, three weeks from now, leaving some time for Democrats to make it an issue.

    How the Legislature takes up the bill will be of interest. Republicans have a strong majority in the Senate, but just a handful of seats in the House. If the motion is to accept the Majority Report (the Democratic map), which Democrats will push for, then it is in the GOP interest to leave the 2/3 statute in place.

    After the Democratic map is rejected, then Republicans would change to requiring a simple majority for their own scheme. And this is where the Maine electorate comes in.

    Because to do this would set Republicans up for major criticism. The entire Legislature is up for election in 2012, and state House and Senate districts will be redrawn in 2013. Should the Maine GOP lose control of the Legislature, they will face a bloodbath in 2013 like you can't believe.

    A major push for the GOP map is coming from the national level. Their scheme moves 13,000 registered voters from CD1 to CD2, including 10,000 registered Republicans. Maine Senate President Kevin Raye lost to now-Rep. Mike Michaud in the CD2 race in 2002 by 9,000 votes.

    Republican leadership in D.C. is only concerned about the now, and don't care if they are selling the State Party down the river.

    Dirigo Blue will be on hand for the Special Session on 27 September, live tweeting.

    Form follows function -- Louis Sullivan

    by Spud1 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:49:09 AM PDT

    •  Redistricting is out of control (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Spud1

      Republicans and democrats alike are responsible for the crazy way our states redistrict every 10 years as a result of the census figures.  This has turned into a totally political endeavor with absolutely no sense in how the "party in power" maneuvers the lines they draw.  In our state, when democrats "owned" the legislature, the lines were drawn to favor democratic candidates.  Now?  The republicans are in power and they're changing the district lines so as to favor their own candidates.  

      There's gotta be some other way to get this done.  I am not saying that we should not consider race as an issue so as to make sure there are minority districts...I'm all about that, of course.  I'm saying that it's ludicrous to see a district that extends from the far eastern part of the state to the far northwestern part of the state so as to include a predominance of one party favorability.  

      There just has to be a better way.

      - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

      by r2did2 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:57:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Spud1

      someone said that anything passed by a simple majority in Maine can be challenged by a ballot initiative.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:46:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's called the People's Veto (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Spud1

        that's how the bigots beat gay marriage.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 10:01:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A people's veto can be tried on any Maine law that (0+ / 0-)

        has not yet taken effect. In the case of the redistricting maps (which are enacted like any other bill), if they are voted out of the Legislature as a non-emergency bill, they would not take affect for 90 days (Maine Constitution Article IV Part Third Section 16). The Special Session is scheduled for 27 September, and so maps would become legal on 27 December, in time for 2 January 2012.

        A people's veto can be tried (Article IV Part Third Section 17):

        1. Petition procedure; petition for people's veto. Upon written petition of electors, the number of which shall not be less than 10% of the total vote for Governor cast in the last gubernatorial election preceding the filing of such petition, and addressed to the Governor and filed in the office of the Secretary of State by the hour of 5:00 p.m., on or before the 90th day after the recess of the Legislature, or if such 90th day is a Saturday, a Sunday, or a legal holiday, by the hour of 5:00 p.m., on the preceding day which is not a Saturday, a Sunday, or a legal holiday, requesting that one or more Acts, bills, resolves or resolutions, or part or parts thereof, passed by the Legislature but not then in effect by reason of the provisions of the preceding section, be referred to the people, such Acts, bills, resolves, or resolutions or part or parts thereof as are specified in such petition shall not take effect until 30 days after the Governor shall have announced by public proclamation that the same have been ratified by a majority of the electors voting thereon at a statewide or general election.

        Form follows function -- Louis Sullivan

        by Spud1 on Thu Sep 08, 2011 at 03:26:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Moreover (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Spud1

      they may have some fantasy of snagging the CD-02 electoral vote.

  •  NM-redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, NM Ward Chair

    For too long, NM-03 was very concentrated Democratic - rare for a rural district.  NM-02, in the south, leaning conservative.

    Gary Johnson was Governor for the last redistricting, and they managed to make NM-01 (Albuquerque & some burbs) conservative enough for Heather Wilson to hang onto the seat.  So despite having the majority of the voters pick a Dem in the elections routinely, only 1 of 3 in the Congressional delegation was a Dem.  (Bill Richardson, then Tom Udall, now Ben Ray Lujan.)

    This time around, the jockeying (again) is likely to focus on what gets tacked onto Albuquerque, and how much blue can be concentrated in NM-03.

    The river always wins. -- Mark Twain

    by Land of Enchantment on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:53:14 AM PDT

    •  There is no chance whatsoever (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Land of Enchantment

      that Governatrix Susanna Martinez will sign any major redistricting law (Congress, state house, state senate.)  She has told the R's in the legislature as much.  She might sign a PRC or PEC map, though.

      Re the congressional map:  Look for NM-01 to be more urban and more blue.  NM-02 will remain a Rethuglican vote sink.  The state senate and house maps are more challenging because of demographic shifts.  The Democrats' challenge is to draw the most favorable maps while respecting all of the redistricting principles, so the best we can do will be upheld by the courts.

      I can't wait to call Martin Heinrich my Senator, and I'm going to work my ass off to make it so!

      by NM Ward Chair on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 01:00:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC-4 - Only the first act (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus
    NC-04: Rep. David Price previously sent out a fundraising email which indicated he'd seek re-election, and now he's confirmed that at a recent town hall. Price will face off in the Democratic primary against fellow Rep. Brad Miller.

    Redistricting is far from settled in NC. Both the NC Democratic party and the NAACP have promised lawsuits due to racial gerrymandering. The courts made changes to NC maps after both the 1990 and 2000 census, so there's no reason to think that won't happen again.

    I don't think it is safe to say that Price and Miller will face off in a primary just yet.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 06:54:02 AM PDT

    •  Aren't both of those already congressmen? (0+ / 0-)

      What are they doing there....breaking up a district so that both of these current congressmen have to fight for just one district now?  What's THAT all about.  I see that North Carolina went red in their legislature so I guess they are pulling out all stops to maintain their power there.  This is crazy because both of those congressmen seem to be good representatives.  I hope the NAACP and the state dem party can stand firm on their lawsuit.  Good luck bear.

      - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

      by r2did2 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:02:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Crafty redistricting by the NCGOP (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, jncca, r2did2

        has thrown Miller (NC-13) into Price's NC-4 district. Miller's apartment complex was carved out of his precinct and added to NC-4, with the rest of his precint remaining in NC-13.

        The new map, as currently drawn, would likely cause the NC congressional delegation to go from a 7-6 Dem majority to a 9-4 or 10-3 GOP majority.

        A Califorina-type redistricting commission is looking pretty darn good right now.

        "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by bear83 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:30:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  except ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      .... if they nudge Miller back into a strongly-R district, I imagine he still might run in NC-4 if it contains a significant portion of his former district.

      •  This is true (0+ / 0-)

        but any change to the districts would probably make the GOP districts more competitve - and temping for Dems.

        "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by bear83 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:32:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-35: Another potential same party run off (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    Assemblywoman Norma Torres is also looking at entering the race. She also a base in the district, as she was Mayor of Pomona and of course represents some in the Assembly. Should be one of the more interesting races.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:00:00 AM PDT

  •  I wrote my first Letter to the Editor (6+ / 0-)

    To The Editor:
        I was deeply disturbed by the article “A Congresswoman’s Cause Is Often Her Husband’s Gain.”  The article leaves the impression that the Congresswoman fights for good nephrology care for Nevadans out of personal interest.  However, Congresswoman Berkley has a long history of fighting for a better health care system.  

    Congresswoman Berkley is a leading voice on a variety of health care issues from osteoporosis to dental care for veterans.  The fact that her husband is a nephrologist is as relevant as the fact that a supporter of public schools is married to a teacher.  The propriety of the Congresswoman’s conduct is underscored by the fact that the issues mentioned in the article were supported by other members of the Nevada delegation, Republicans and Democrats alike.

        There is enough self-interest and corruption in Congress that it is a shame the Times chose to focus on such a non-story.

    "He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." - J.S. Mill

    by dmsarad on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:05:34 AM PDT

  •  Mother Jones article on Koch super-PAC is scary (0+ / 0-)

    You have to read it.  Really scary stuff.  The post-CitizensUnited world is here and it means that anonymous corporate donors will essentially buy the government they want.  It's an easy and very lucrative business decision for them.

    The Koch super-PAC is projected to raise $500,000,000 to fund their sophisticated and well-tested messaging and outreach programs to achieve one goal - destroy Obama.  They want to destroy him politically and personally.  To put it into context, it will be tantamount to the Swift Boaters times 5 and with better media.  

    Dems have one chance on this and one chance only.  They have to play the game and return equal or greater fire.  We will need to scorch Koch and his anti-science cronies.  We need Dem corporate benefactors to step up - Buffet? Ellison? Kaiser? Spielberg? Hyatt? Soros?

    We have one chance.  I hope the Dem super-PAC materializes fast and is absolutely merciless in it's attacks on the GOP.

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:06:53 AM PDT

    •  Meh... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      a Dem SuperPac would be beholden to serve the same corporate interests that a GOP one would.

      Why wouldn't it?

      Who else would fund it? Greenpeace? Planned Parenthood? Labor unions? They're all already in the game as much as they are capable.

      IMO the chance to head off Koch tsunami has probably passed. That would have been to distinguish Dem as the party that was fighting tooth and nail against the GOP's war on the middle class. But the opportunity to do that was squandered by tinkering, very bad negotiating and compromising away every principle.

      Our best hope is to work our asses off and pray. Last cycle NH seemed to be the pilot program for crazy outsized 527 spending. And it didn't go so hot for us.

      "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." —Mohandas Gandhi

      by Scott Wooledge on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:50:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We need to use what they use (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        The Dem Majority PAC is one.  It doesn't make it right, but you need to compete.

        How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

        by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:57:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree, of course. (0+ / 0-)

          But lets not fool ourselves into imagining the David Kochs of the world do not outnumber the George Soros 10 to 1. Most billionaires with lots of expendable cash are not going to be working politically against their own best interests.

          This is not a playing field that can be leveled easily.

          "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." —Mohandas Gandhi

          by Scott Wooledge on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:17:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Warren Buffett is richer than the Kochs. (0+ / 0-)

            How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

            by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:27:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  We could do this all day. (0+ / 0-)

              Citing individual billionaires that might rush to save us. Steve Jobs too.

              But, the GOP has far more billionaires in their court.

              You might disagree with that, but I'm pretty sure a empirical look at the data would show I am correct. I'm just trying to be reality-based here.

              I don't think the progressive billionaires brigade is going to rush in and save us from the MIC, the Christian fundamentalists, the environmental plunderers, the "cut the millionaires' taxes" supply-siders.

              I think putting too much hope in that strategy is barking up the wrong tree. Just my opinion. YMMV.

              But if you have those numbers in your rolodex, by all means, call them up.

              "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." —Mohandas Gandhi

              by Scott Wooledge on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 10:27:59 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  It's not all that bad. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      Rove threw the sink at Harry Reid and Mike Bennet last year and they still won.  They're not all-powerful.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 08:01:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rove threw the kitchen sink (0+ / 0-)

        at NH as well. And walked away with veto proof majorities for the GOP in the State House and Senate and a shiny new GOP Senator. And made a very popular Governor sweat his reelection.

        "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." —Mohandas Gandhi

        by Scott Wooledge on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:20:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And yet they (0+ / 0-)

          can't override a veto on RTW.  Also, NH's legislature being set up the way it is, swings are all too common and strong.

          How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

          by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:26:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I am not sure what RTW is... (0+ / 0-)

            but if you've been following NH politics, not overriding a veto is essentially the flip side of 2009-2010 Dem failure to maximize the majority, herding too many cats is onerous work. The GOP leadership overreached and moderates are rebelling, fearing for their own prospects in 2012. Some clearly setting themselves up to be able to campaign against their own party when the pendulum swings back next November.

            ei: "I'm not one of the crazy ones! Keep me!"

            "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." —Mohandas Gandhi

            by Scott Wooledge on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 02:05:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  RTW: Right To Work? (0+ / 0-)

            haven't been following that, but not surprising to me.

            "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." —Mohandas Gandhi

            by Scott Wooledge on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 02:05:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  WI-2 Roys announces (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, ndrwmls10

    Kelda Helen Roys , surprising absolutely no one, announced she will stand for the Democratic nomination for Tammy Baldwin's House seat.

    Rep. Mark Pocan, is also expected to announce by the end of the day.

    Roys is in her first term, but she was the one Dane County Rep. whose district was messed with when the GOP filled her disrict with what looked like moth eaten holes in the map of her district.

    link: http://wispolitics.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:20:00 AM PDT

  •  NC-13 - Holding is a Jesse Helms Protege (0+ / 0-)

    George Holding, GOP candidate for NC-13, is using campaign stategist Carter Wrenn, longtime advisor to Senator Jesse Helms.

    The congressional campaign of former U.S. Attorney George Holding has all the earmarks of a Carter Wrenn-run campaign - find a theme and hammer away on it.

    A new radio ad emphasizes Holding's pledge to cut spending - a theme he has stressed in his first TV ad.

    "With your support I will go to Congress and do three things - cut spending, and cut spending and cut more spending," Holding says. "It's time to end politics as usual."

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Ugh.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 07:36:46 AM PDT

    •  Tomblin has 50/25 approval. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Maloney has 43/29 Favorables

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 08:04:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Trend line is not encouraging (0+ / 0-)

        Tomblin+33
        Tomblin+15
        Tomblin+6

        Also its its a McCain+9 suggesting a much lower turnout than 2008 and 2010, something ERT needs. If it where 2008 turnout, Maloney's deficit shrinks to one.

        Too many people are assuming that because this a non federal race, its in the bag for democrats. The reason Bill Maloney has been moving his numbers upwards is because his involvement in the Plan B rescue attempt during the 2010 Chilean Mine disaster is playing very well in West Virginia, a mountainous state with many coal miners. This is one is not sitting right with me at all.

        •  That's because (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          people are knowing Maloney more.  And Maloney also said he idolizes Kasich and Walker, so that will undo any good will.  Besides, his involvement with that is indirect.

          Tomblin has a ton more money and a ton more influence.  He will win.

          How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

          by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:28:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You're too much a worry wart. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          The only way Democrats lose statewide races is if the Democrat is either underfunded or liberal.  That is why Charlotte Pritt was beaten badly by Cecil Underwood in 1996.

          How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

          by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:32:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also, of further note (0+ / 0-)

            Pritt beat Joe Manchin in the primary that year.

            How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

            by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:33:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  and why did Betty Ireland win SOS in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

            this is a state that voted like Mississippi in 2008, Democrats would be very stupid to take these races for granted and it's even more dangerous to say, "Oh the democrat will automatically win in West Virginia because its a non federal race". Republicans haven't really made an effort to contest races like these in West Virginia and when they do they will be competitive like the one we have here.

            •  I'm not saying it's automatic (0+ / 0-)

              I'm saying that Dems are favored here.  Furthermore, WV is not at all like MS since much more Caucasians vote Dem in WV.

              How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

              by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 10:22:55 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  The person with better approvals wins (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, itskevin

        50% Approval typically wins a race. It could be close, but Tomblin looks on track to win.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 08:59:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  When they asked for poll suggestions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      I asked for a generic ballot question for WV.  I hope they did that.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 08:12:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bullock. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Odysseus, James Allen

    Yeah, his announcement party is tonight in Billings and then tomorrow another one in Helena. I'd love to be there.

  •  Perry's book a liability. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    http://politicalwire.com/...
    Apparently, when he "wrote" it, he wasn't planning to run for President.  Oops.

    How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

    by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 08:08:59 AM PDT

  •  CRAZY idea for you all = (0+ / 0-)

    VERY soon there are primary and special elections.....

    WHY NOT POST URGENT INFO SO WE CAN SEE WHERE TO VOLUNTEER AND DONATE.

    •  This is Daily Kos Elections (0+ / 0-)

      it's just how we roll :) I'm sure if you want to know that stuff you can ask local activists or use Google.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 10:05:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But why have each Kossack reinvent (0+ / 0-)

        the wheel when so many people here do know what is needed every day?

        I am already on many e-mail lists and phone lists for donating and volunteering but I'm disabled and can't do nearly enough.

        It's not either/or.........I'm encouraging MORE......and MORE PRECISE use of the power of technology here.

  •  NV-02 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I guess the best way to look at it, given the pessimistic news, would be that this is a Republican district, and they've thrown scads of dough into it. So, if the results are reasonably close, it's not that Obama is dragging down the candidate.

    •  This seat has NEVER (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      elected a Democrat.  Our best shot was back in 2006 when Heller came out of a really bruising primary with Angle.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 09:35:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NH Executive Council (0+ / 0-)

    is 5 Republicans, not 3-2

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Sep 07, 2011 at 12:35:29 PM PDT

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