An article in the Christian Science Monitor today speculates about the possibility of Sarah Palin making a third party vanity run for the presidency as a Tea Party candidate, something I've been talking about for a while now. I think it's a very real possibility. She clearly loves the spotlight, and running for president offers unequaled opportunity to be the center of a media extravaganza. But she just as clearly dislikes responsibility, and being a third party candidate essentially guarantees that there is no chance of actually winning the White House and being forced to, you know, govern. Where's the fun in that?
Cross posted on STL.
But this is shaping up to be an unusual race for a variety of reasons. On one side we have a president whose job approval ratings have been hovering around 40% for months, but whose personal approval ratings are consistently above 50%. People like him, they just don't think he's doing a very good job. That's a more or less accurate description of my own feelings. I think he is obviously a highly intelligent and accomplished guy, but I also think he's a terrible politician who has consistently misread the determination of the other side to bring him down, and has played into their hands time and again. He comes across as a man out of his depth, and like a lot of Democrats I find myself with an acute case of buyer's remorse, and wondering how things might have been different under a President Hillary Clinton. sigh
(If I were the type to say I told you so, this would be the point where I would say it. I was not an early or avid supporter of Barack Obama during the 2008 primary campaign. I thought he was a great speaker, but that his lofty rhetoric was not backed up by any real life political gravitas. I came over when it was clear he was inevitable, but I was never what you'd call enthusiastic, as my posts on Daily Kos can attest. It's a good thing I'm not the type to say I told you so. Heh.)
But despite all his weaknesses, President Obama could still win. For one thing, he's an excellent campaigner. For sure this will be a different kind of campaign than four years ago. The president will be playing defense this time. He won't be able to run against the discredited policies of a failed administration. In fact quite the contrary, he'll have to defend his own policies, widely seen as ineffective, against those self same attacks. But he's still an excellent public speaker whose intelligence and command of the issues comes through, and those things matter in a campaign, especially when it comes time for the debates.
Another thing that works in Obama's favor is the gaggle of nitwits arrayed against him. A recent Onion headline proclaimed "White-Hot GOP Race Down To Two Mentally Ill People, Person Who Lost Nomination Last Time," and as always their satirical take on events is eerily accurate. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann may appeal to the "Teavangelical" Republican base, but either would have an uphill battle to win over swing voters, who are generally turned off by their kind of extremism. It's not impossible, to be sure, but it's a big hurdle. Of the two, Rick Perry seems more likely to be able to pull it off, but it remains to be seen whether he is the real deal or just the flavor du jour. I tend to think the latter is more likely. For a variety of reasons, not least of which is a primary calendar that almost seems engineered in his favor, I think the eventual Republican nominee will be Mitt Romney. If so he would certainly have a realistic shot at winning. But it would by no means be a sure thing. Unless he suddenly grows a personality, Romney is unlikely to ever command much in the way of enthusiasm. A choice between Romney and Obama could easily come down to "meh" vs. "blah," a situation that probably works to the incumbent's advantage. But no matter who ends up as the GOP nominee, it is not hard to imagine a situation where an unpopular president with a bad economy is nevertheless reelected because he's still better than the alternative.
Of course, if Sarah Palin were to run as a major third party candidate, it would all but guarantee a Democratic victory. That fact is probably the one thing that might give her pause. If she is seen as responsible for another four years of Obama, her popularity among conservatives could be irreparably damaged, and she could lose everything that she fell ass-backwards into to achieve. If that happened she could always make an Arianna Huffington-like switch and become a left wing media darling. You think I'm kidding, but stardom is stardom. Besides, you get to hobnob with better celebrities on the left.