Significant and devastating flooding is underway across Pennsylvania and New York, and elsewhere in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. I'll update it as time goes on during the day. The scoop below the jump.
Lee made landfall on the Gulf Coast and moved north and eastward. Unfortunately, Lee moved over areas that have been slammed with rain since the end of last winter, and from Hurricane Irene.
Record and possibly catastrophic flooding is expected along the main stem Susquehanna River in Pennsylvania and New York, and I'm seeing indications more flooding in the interior portions of New York state are underway. At some points this flood will exceed that of Hurricane Agnes in 1972, which remains the benchmark flood for most of central and eastern Pennsylvania.
And it's still raining. This morning's NWS discussion out of State College is dire:
.NEAR TERM UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING SCENARIO PLAYING OUT OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AS TORRENTIAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ADDED TO ALREADY
STAGGERING 84 HOUR TOTALS FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION OF
NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. PEMA REPORTS
OVER 450 ROADS CLOSED AND AT LEAST 2 FATALITIES THUS FAR FROM
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. COLUMBIA COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS
MOST PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF FROM OVERNIGHT RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS (WITH FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCY WORDING) WHICH HAD BEEN IN EFFECT SINCE LAST EVENING
HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN REPLACED BY AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS ONGOING SEVERE FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS PREVENT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MY
AREA.
The flooding began yesterday. Flash flooding around Harrisburg appears to have claimed one human life, and several animal ones at Zoo America in Hershey.
More during the day. Stay safe out there.
Update 1 6:30AMEDT:
Two deaths now reported in Lancaster County. (Scott Martin is one of the three County Commissioners for Lancaster County.)
Update 2, 715AMEDT
I had a major update on the flood crests that dkos ate. Lesson learned; I'll write them in word and copy and paste from now on. Here's try number 2:
Gauges for this region can be seen here.
at Harrisburg at 7am, the Susquehanna has risen to 19.76 feet. It is forecast to rise to 28.5 feet. If verified, this would be Harrisburg's 3rd worse flood.
at Sunbury, where the West Branch and main stem Susquehanna meet, the Susquehanna has risen to 27.86 feet. Crest forecast at 34.1 feet. Agnes's crest was 35.8 feet.
at Wilkes-Barre, the Susquehanna has risen to 29 and a half feet. Flood crest is expected to 39.6 feet. The levees that protect Wilkes-Barre protect to 41 feet.
Update 3:
From Binghamton New York, where flooding will likely exceed that of the June 2006 floods, which is that city's benchmark flood.
Update 4:
Check out this graph for the Swatara Creek at Hershey, PA.It's exceeded its record by over 8 feet, and it's still rising.
Update 5:
An update for Wilkes-Barre, which could give you a sense of how bad this really is: The crest of the Susquehanna is expected to be just 18 inches below the levels of the levees that protect that city and its surrounding areas. The Wyoming Valley is home to some 200,000 people. No word yet on if a full evacuation of this area has been called.
Update 6:
This is what will flood at 28 feet in the city of Harrisburg. it's a PDF. A great deal of that orange is the city's industrial core, although the neighborhoods of Shipoke and portions of Uptown will flood as well. If it looks like the city's server is overloaded, however, I'll break the link.
This is insult to injury to the city of Harrisburg, which is, for a variety of very long-stemming reasons, broke. I mean going to be paying workers in IOUs broke.
update 7:
my personal safety is fine. Trust me, if they told us to go, we'd get the eff out. We're not even in the 500-yr flood plain, and most of the property didn't even flood during Agnes according to the elderly man 2 doors down. However there is a creek that borders the far end of our property and it has risen to an incredible level, although according to our land survey, it's still within the 100 year flood. I got some pictures yesterday which I posted on Facebook. It's risen at least a foot since then, since it's now spilled out into a wider area of the lower field, and I can actually see it from my front steps.
If that's a 100 year flood, I don't ever want to see a 500 year one.
Update 8:
It looks likely that the floodwalls in Binghamton will be overtopped.
Mandatory Evacuations of most of the Wyoming Valley (this is Wilkes-Barre) are now underway. That's about 120,000 people.
Update 9:
My sense now is if you're along the Susquehanna, and the old-timers say "yeah we had 5 feet of water here at this spot during Agnes", consider leaving. Like now.
Some updated gauge forecasts:
Harrisburg: 29 feet, Saturday morning
Sunbury: 34.7 feet, Friday night
Bloomsburg:31.8 feet, Friday morning (this exceeds Agnes by several inches)
Wilkes-Barre: 40.7 feet, Friday morning
From the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader
"There is a 30 percent chance that the river will go higher than that," county Commissioner Stephen Urban said during a Thursday morning news conference at the Emergency Management Building. "We're confident that the levees will hold. However, we're going to order a mandatory evacuation of the areas affected by the Agnes flood in 1972. We're going to ask everyone leave the area by 8 p.m. Get out of the area."
Approximately 150,000 residents will be affected by the full-scale evacuation.
Jim Brozena, executive director for the county Flood Protection Authority, said levees are continually monitored and tested, and have not settled since they were raised 10 to 12 years ago.
"One of the things we do as part of our maintenance operations, we do surveys of the levees, we are sure they are the proper height that they were originally constructed too," Brozena said.
Update 10:
Significant flooding is occurring in and around Philadelphia. A mudslide has blocked I-76 from its interchange with the Blue Route to Girard Ave. If you know Philadelphia, you know this is the main route into Center City.
Incidentally the Schuylkill River at Philadelphia (roughly at the Art Museum) will crest at 14 feet this evening.
If you don't need to be out today, stay home.
To give you a sense of how bad this is, here's a picture of the Susquehanna at Harrisburg. About 15 feet UNDER that water is a wide pathway, and then another 3 feet down some steps to the river. It's still rising.
Update 11:
Port Deposit MD is to be evacuated. I also got a report via twitter that Route 1 over the Conowingo Dam, is closed. Not confirmed yet, and not sure if it's the road or the dam. Conowingo is one of 4 hydroelectric dams on the Susquehanna below Harrisburg.
Update 12:
TMI is not expecting a shutdown, for now.
Other nuclear power plants on the Susquehanna include Berwick, near Wilkes-Barre and Peach Bottom, near the PA/MD border.
Also, my town is officially cut off although I don't have a link. We're fine, and most of the town is high up, but this really is serious.
I do apologize that this diary is Pennsylvania-heavy, but it's where I live. If you happen to have information about your states, please post them.
Update 13:
Governor Corbett is speaking now. This has been declared a Level One Emergency here in Pennsylvania. (ABC 27 Livestream)
I've uploaded a bunch of photos of the flooding around Millersburg, Pennsylvania.