Once again, I would like to post a map I drew of Kentucky's Congressional districts, but first a bit of backstory. Back in 1991, Kentucky Democrats drew a map they thought would give them 4 out of 6 seats. This map (which closely resembles the one used during the 00's) backfired in 1994 and went from 4D-2R to 4R-2D in a few years. It went even further to 5R-1D when Republican Anne Northrup defeated Democrat Michael Ward back in 1996. It then went back to 4R-2D in 2006 when Democrat John Yarmuth defeated Northrup. That is where things stand today.
In this theoretical map I drew, I did what Democrats can do (and probably what they should have done back in 1991) to maximize opportunities in as many Congressional districts as possible by packing the bedrock of KY Republican strength into one district. This would give Democrats the opportunity to have 4 seats, but no less than the 2 they already have. In the best case scenario (though improbably), they could get as many as 5. If Democrats had the trifecta here, this is what they should consider strongly. The only "ugly" district I drew is the 2nd. All of my districts deviate from ideal population by less than 100 people.
Let's see how we come about doing this....
(Note: In drawing this, I used both 2007 Gubernatorial results and 2004 Senatorial results available at U.S. Election Atlas.)
Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky
Western Kentucky
First off, let's start with our Republican vote sink (District 5, which is colored gold). If you look at the county results for the 2007 Gubernatorial election, you will notice that south-central Kentucky voted Republican en masse (also note that at the U.S. Election Atlas, blue is Republican and red is Democratic). Supposedly, this region of Kentucky went Republican after the Civil War and has not looked back. I drew this whole contiguous cluster of counties into one district, making a super-red Republican vote sink. Hal Rogers lives here and would likely run here. No data is needed to know that this is SAFE R.
Next, let's move to the two districts currently held by Democrats. District 3 (dark magenta) is still entirely within Jefferson County and is LIKELY D for Rep. John Yarmuth. Democratic performance here ranges from 55% to 65% of the vote. District 6 (teal) is currently held by Rep. Albert Benjamin "Ben" Chandler III (whose home is Versailles in Woodford County). In my map, he loses the Republican counties of Jessamine and Garrard and gains the more Democratic counties of Nelson, Washington, and Marion. LIKELY D for Chandler and TILT D if open.
District 1 (blue) becomes the most likely pick-up opportunity for Kentucky Democrats. It loses the Republican counties of Casy, Adair, Russell, Clinton, Cumberland, Monroe, Allen, and Butler. It then gains Dem-leaning Warren County (where Bowling Green is located) and heavily-Dem Owensboro. It is now anchored by Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Paducah. I'd say that this district is probably TOSS UP/TILT R if Democrats recruit a top-tier candidate.
District 2 (green) is the only ugly district on this map. It sops up as much of the remaining Republican voting strength as possible. It starts in Butler, circles around Jefferson, and branches over to the Cincinnati suburbs. Republican Rep. Geoff Davis lives in Hebron in Boone County, so he would likely run here. Democrats could win this since it's not too Republican, but I'd call it no less than LIKELY R.
District 4 (red) is based in heavily-Democratic Eastern Kentucky, as can be seen in the 2004 Senatorial election results. It contains 4 counties that voted for Obama in 2008 (one of them, Elliott County, has voted Democratic for president in every election since the county's creation in 1869; this is the longest streak that ANY county in the U.S.A. has voted for the Democratic nominee for president!). Republican Congressman Hal Rogers currently represents Eastern Kentucky, but he lives in Somerset in Pulaski County, which is now far-separated from the new Eastern Kentucky district. Since this seat would most likely be open, I would say it is TOSS UP/TILT R.
Here are my rankings for these districts, which I shall rank using horse race terminology:
Show - Dems win KY-03 and KY-06
Place - Dems win KY-03, KY-06 plus either KY-01 or KY-04
Win - Dems win KY-03, KY-06, KY-01, and KY-04
Triple Crown - Dems win all districts but KY-05
I hope you liked this piece of work. It's not at all likely to happen because Republicans hold the State Senate, but it was fun to imagine "what if". Feel free to comment, critique, and discuss!
UPDATE x1:
I took in the comments made by Western KY Dem and SouthernINdem. I was told that KY-01 would be better for Dems if I added in McLean and Hancock County. Also, the Cincinnatti suburbs are reddish and would not help KY-04. Also, if I split Boone, Kenton, and/or Campbell counties, it may violate court precedent and the state constitution. In brief, the Kentucky Supreme Court might respond to my map like this:
So what I did was gave all of Campbell to my KY-02. I then gave all of Daviess, Hancock, and McLean counties to KY-01, which had to shed the rural parts of Warren County. All of this movement forced me to make adjustments to KY-04, KY-05, and KY-06. KY-04 now has Leslie and Estill County and has a chunk of Madison County. KY-06 now takes in Elisabethtown in Hardin County. It's not a pretty picture, but it works fine.
Revised Western Kentucky
Revised Eastern Kentucky
What do you think of this new map?