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David Weprin
Siena (PDF). 9/6-8. Likely voters. MoE ±3.3% (8/3-8 (PDF) results):
David Weprin (D): 44 (48)
Robert Turner (R): 50 (42)
Don't know/no opinion: 6 (9)

Last month, when Siena showed Weprin up by just six, David Nir wrote that "These numbers are certainly closer than I would have expected." Since then, the race has gone from closer-than-expected to upside-down of what we would have expected. Weprin continues to struggle to consolidate the Democratic vote, drawing just 63% of Democrats, a bare increase over last month's 61%.

The DCCC is going in with a sizable independent expenditure, and this poll had already been in the field for several days when Turner made his epic “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like” gaffe, but there's no question that with four days to go and Turner up six, this is going to be uncomfortable.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 07:29 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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