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At this moment, it seems as if the odds favor a flip in New York's 9th district. And with the Democratic-controlled New York Assembly and Republican-controlled New York Senate having to find a way to get rid of two incumbents, the drama seems to center around eliminating the 9th and eliminating Kathy Hochul's seat? But what about a series of splits to eliminate the 9th and at least help one upstate Republican as a payback while keeping Hochul?

Here's the blank maps of upstate New York and New York City:

Let's go district by district now

NY1 (Bishop): 78W/12.5H, 51.4/47.6 Obama. Was 52/48 Obama. Only adds a few precincts on the Western Border.

NY2 (Israel): 64W/20H, 55/44.1 Obama. Was 56/43 Obama. Loses precincts to NY1. Loses Jericho to NY3. Picks up the tail of NY3 around Bayshore.

NY3 (King/Turner): 76.5W/12H, 50.1/49.1 McCain. Was 52/47 McCain. Loses it's tail to NY2. Picks up a new one by going to Rockaway and picking up Bob Turner's house. Picks up some turf from NY4.

NY4 (McCarthy): 52W/17B/18H/11A, 58.4/40.9 Obama. Was 58/41 Obama. Loses turf to NY3. Picks up turf from NY5.

NY5 (Ackerman): 36W/26H/32A, 64.4/34.9 Obama. Was 63/36 Obama. Loses turf to NY4, picks it up from NY9.

NY6 (Meeks): 13W/45B/20H/14A, 86.8/12.9 Obama. Was 89/11 Obama. Loses ground to NY3 and picks it up from NY9.

NY7 (Crowley): 22W/15B/42H/17.5A, 77.6/21.9 Obama. Was 79/20 Obama. Picks up ground from NY9.

NY8 (Nadler): 64W/12H/19A, 67.6/31.5 Obama. Was 74/26 Obama. Loses ground to NY14/16, picks it up from NY13. The much more Republican Brooklyn section is inevitable because NY13 can't take all that stuff without causing problems with the majority-minority districts. So sinking Borough Park/Dyker Heights into the 8th seems like the only likely outcome.

NY9 (Hayworth/Lowey): 60W/10B/22H, 62/37 Obama, was 62/38 Obama in NY18. Hayworth would likely not run in this district and would move north.

NY10 (Towns): 21W/51.5B/20H, 88/12 Obama, was 91/9 Obama. Swaps some ground with NY11 and picks up NY9.

NY11 (Clarke): 29W/51B/12H, 87/12 Obama, was 91/9 Obama. Picks up a bit of NY9.

NY12 (Velazquez): 30W/43H/17A, 83/16 Obama, was 86/13 Obama. Picks up the Middle Village.

NY13 (Grimm): 65W/15H/10A, 51/48 McCain, was 51/49 McCain. Swaps some turf from NY8, picks up Homestead/Sheepstad Bay.

NY14 (Maloney): 65W/14H/14A, 79/20 Obama, was 78/21 Obama.

NY15 (Rangel): 24W/25B/45H, 92.5/7 Obama, was 93/6 Obama.

NY16 (Serrano): 27B/66H, 94/6 Obama, was 95/5 Obama.

NY17 (Engel): 44W/27B/21.5H, 67/33 Obama, was 72/28 Obama.

NY18 (Hanna): 90W, 51.5/47 McCain, was 51/48 Obama.

NY19 (Buerkle): 84.5W, 56/42 Obama, was 56/43 Obama.

NY20 (probably Nanworth): 77.5/11H, 51/47 Obama, was 51/48 Obama.

NY21 (Gibson and Owens): 92W. 53/45 Obama. Gibson's district was 51/48 Obama. Owens district was 52/47 Obama. In a head to head, Gibson would be a favorite based on geography through.

NY22 (Tonko): 80W, 58/40 Obama. Was 58/40 Obama.

NY23 (Hinchey): 76W/11H, 58/40 Obama. Was 59/39 Obama.

NY24 (Reed): 92W. 52/46 McCain. Was in a 51/48 McCain district.

NY25 (Slaughter): 72W/15B, 59/40 Obama. Was in a 69/30 Obama district.

NY26 (Hochul): 87W. 49.4/49 Obama. Was in a 52/46 McCain district. Picks up areas from Slaughter outside of Monroe and loses Monroe areas to Slaughter.

NY27 (Higgins): 76W/14B. 59/39 Obama. Was 54/44 Obama. Absorbs some blue areas from Slaughter's district.

In a year similar to 2008, Obama wins 23 of 27 districts.

But if the year is closer to 50/50 nationally than 53/47, Obama wins 20 of 27 districts.

The winners and losers of this map

Winners: Hochul (gets a better district), Dan Maffei, Michael Grimm

Losers: Bob Turner, Bill Owens or Chris Gibson, Peter King

So, how does this account for a Bob Turner victory?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 02:33:57 PM PDT

  •  I don't see it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    I can maybe see Rep. Peter T. King and a hypothetical Rep. Turner being drawn together, but Republicans wouldn't accept putting Reps. Owens and Gibson in a "fair fight" as their trade. They would demand that either Reps. Hochul and Higgins, Reps. Owens and Tonko, or Reps. Hinchey and Tonko be drawn together.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 03:20:15 PM PDT

    •  yeah, but their majority rests on 1 guy (0+ / 0-)

      it's more about making enough of them happy to get it through than making all of them happy. And strengthening Reed/Hanna is another part of that upstate map.

      Hochul can't be paired out of her seat short of maintaining the earmuffs. Because you pair her and Higgins, she jumps to the district including her area. And that area will be more Dem without the Slaughter gerrymander.

      Pairing Hinchey and Tonko seems unlikely as I don't think you can draw an Albany to Ulster County district without weakening the other R districts. Same for Albany to Plattsburgh.

      There's not exactly a lot of reasonable options. New York isn't 50/50. Eliminate Turner, and create the potential to eliminate Owens or someone else. And I think Gibson beats Owens in that district based on familiarity and Owens probably being the worst upstate Dem in the delegation.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 03:39:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Eliminating a Dem upstate is very tricky (0+ / 0-)

    Problem is, one downstate seat and one upstate seat must go and that's hard to do while maintaining partisan wishes.

    I've never posted a New York map before, but I may try to do one.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:01:01 PM PDT

    •  They ought to just let the courts draw it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, andgarden, Taget

      let the chips fall where they may.  I'd like our chances under such a scenario.  Deliberately axing one of our upstate Dems (who worked their asses off to get elected) to compensate for removing potential fluke winner Turner is sick.  Cuomo should veto anything like that.

      •  Rep. Hinchey has cancer (0+ / 0-)

        If his district can be eliminated, that might provide the solution.

        I'm still hoping Weprin pulls it out, obviously, but it looks grim. He's down two sets and a break, and he's not exactly Roger Federer.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:38:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was surprised that the Hinchey district (0+ / 0-)

          was intact on my map. And considering the dynamics, you can't cut Hinchey's district up without making a few of those Republican districts bluer. It'd be like what happened when I cut up the Slaughter district and made Hochul's district into a 50/50 district.

          In theory, Engel and Lowey being paired would probably not screw up the Republican districts too badly, but I would imagine that Engel and Lowey have the power to prevent that.

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:51:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Interesting thought (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not sure how much clout they have. Reps. Engel and Serrano could also conceivably be combined and Rep. Lowey left alone. For being in office for over 22 years apiece (they're both Class of '88), Engel and Lowey don't have a ton of power on the Hill.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 04:57:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  if you pair Engel (0+ / 0-)

              it'd be a bit tidier to just combine his surplus with Hinchey's district and give Ithaca to someone else. The Engel district I drew was a bit ridiculous but I was dropping lots of Hispanic precincts from Engel's district to Serrano's district.

              But Ithaca is a bit of a problem as it's surrounded by Republican districts and i'm guessing NYS Republicans wouldn't go for a 4-way deal where two NYC Congressmen get wounded and two upstaters get hurt too. Because Buerkle isn't getting a red district short of some map that gives Slaughter an earthworm from Buffalo to Syracuse.

              The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

              by RBH on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 05:15:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Engel & Lowey (0+ / 0-)

              I certainly agree with you on Engel.  Besides being a pro-Israel hack, he is  most noted for always sitting on the aisle during presidential addresses so that he can shake the president's hand.  However, Lowey ranks fourth among the Democrats on the Appropriations Committee and she is a former chair of the DCCC.  The two are hardly comparable.

    •  The way you eliminate a dem upstate... (0+ / 0-) to separate the candidate from the the district.  What I mean by that is you eliminate Hotchul the person.  But you eliminate Buerkle's district by moving Syracuse into Owen's district and you create a new super Republican district that Buerkle is forced to run in.

      The effect is to eliminate a Democratic district and a Democrat.

    •  Getting rid of Hinchey is tricky. (0+ / 0-)

      The Ithaca tail is more to protect Republicans by getting rid of a high Democratic vote area than it is to protect Hinchey.  You can create a nice more compact district for him without Ithaca.  Doing so might even help protect Nan Hayworth assuming you don't just give her Ithaca in return.  But some unlucky Republican will get Ithaca and not like it one bit.

  •  VRA Considerations? (0+ / 0-)

    Given that it is possible to keep the 6th (Meeks) majority VAP Black and also to make the 12th (Velázquez) and 15th (Rangel) majority VAP Hispanic (without inducing retrogression in the 16th (Serrano)) whilst maintaining compact districts is it justifiable not to do so?

    •  hm (0+ / 0-)

      yeah, maybe some swapping between the 6th and 3rd could occur to make the 6th majority-AA again and the 3rd more Republican. Although the NYC districts could be justified if you go with the coalitions. Although with population changes, the 10th/11th dropped a bit in African-American percentage.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Sep 09, 2011 at 08:20:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        with the 10th/11th. It is only just possible to get 3 majority Black districts out of NYC. Whilst I'd agree that not creating majority Hispanic districts is potentially morally justifiable in certain cases (due to coalition districts, say) I'm interested to see if it will turn out to be practical given that it is actually very easy to get 3 Hispanic districts in NYC.  

  •  I'm nervous about Tim Bishop (0+ / 0-)

    he barely survived 2010. With a district that is even a touch weaker, one more bad year and he might be gone.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Sat Sep 10, 2011 at 11:06:39 AM PDT

  •  Upstate questions (0+ / 0-)

    My downstate concerns have already been addressed.  I wonder whether the following could happen:

    1) Send 18's Cayuga County to 24, 24's Cayuga to 19, and 19's Otsego to 18.  

    2) Instead of dividing Livingston County into a northern and southern part, divide it into and eastern and western part.

    I don't know what these would do regarding population, but I think it would help clean up the appearance of Upstate.

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