MA-Sen: Is Scott Brown (R) vulnerable?
New polling says "maybe"
In our post-Labor Day edition of the weekend digest, there isn't a ton of new numbers to report. However, it is safe to say that there is a individual piece of data to satisfy everyone. No matter what meme you are interested in propping up, there is a set of numbers you can point to, released in the past week, to buttress your argument.
Hey, do you want to reinforce a "Dems bouncing back" theme? Look no further than new presidential numbers out of California or new Senate numbers out of Massachusetts. Meanwhile, one national poll shows that, even now, President Obama leads both of his chief GOP rivals.
Want to play Eeyore and go in the "we are doomed" direction? There's alarming signs out of next week's special election in New York, as well as new 2011 gubernatorial numbers out of West Virginia. And, of course, there is another national poll showing the president trailing his chief GOP rivals.
In other words, a mixed bag greets us as we head into a week with not one, but two special elections in the House. Also, one Democrat may be resurrecting a career in the wake of an awful event, and two Democrats are seeking new careers by announcing bids for higher office.
Head beneath the fold for all the polling and horserac-y goodness. You know you want to!
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: Two pollsters examined the general election this week, and found pretty divergent results. Republicans, presumably, were gleefuly passing around the ABC/WaPo poll, which had both Rick Perry (47-46) and Mitt Romney (49-45) in the lead over the president. President Obama did manage to defeat the other two "first-tier" Republicans, holding a modest lead over Michele Bachmann (50-44) and a larger one over Sarah Palin (53-41). By way of contrast, the poll this week from NBC/WSJ continued to show Obama in the lead over either Romney (46-45) or Perry (47-42). However, the President did trail the always formidable "generic Republican" by four points.
Likewise, you can find a national GOP primary poll to fit every meme, as well. The one common thread: Rick Perry is the leader in all three polls. However, the status of the rest of the field was wildly different, depending on the pollster. ABC/WaPo offered Mitt Romney the biggest lifeline, putting the Mittster (23%) within striking distance of Perry (29%). Non-candidate/attention monger Sarah Palin ran third, the only other candidate in double digits, according to ABC/WaPo. Meanwhile, the Politico/GWU poll came closest to the "it's freaking over" meme. They had Perry at 36%, more than doubling up Romney (17%). Complicating matters for Romney was the fact that Politico/GWU had three two other GOP players (Palin, Paul, and Bachmann) in double digits. Meanwhile, the NBC/WSJ poll splits the difference...kind of. The NBC/WSJ poll came a bit closer to the "big lead" scenario, with Perry at 38% and Romney at 23%. Here, we also see the first evidence of the "two man race" scenario, as Perry and Romney combine for three-fifths of the vote.
IN THE STATES: If the true pessimists among us want one reason to smile, here it is: the president has no worries in the largest state of the Union. The new LA Times/USC poll in California (conducted by GQR), showed the president lapping the field in the Golden State, despite job approval ratings that have slid down to 50%. When paired against the GOP contenders, however, the margins are eye-popping, ranging from a 19-point contest with Mitt Romney (54-35) to a 26-point blowout against Michele Bachmann (57-31). In a sign of how compromised the GOP brand name is there, California voters won't even accept "generic Republican" here: Obama leads a generic GOP foe here by fifteen points (52-37). Those 55 electoral votes, for all intents and purposes, are locked down for the Democrats.
The general election picture in Kentucky might seem a bit heartening for Dems, too, but...it's complicated. PPP, who polled the Bluegrass State this week, noted that their sample is a sample of likely 2011 voters. As Daily Kos Elections junkies already know, the 2011 electorate in Kentucky is badly turned off by Republican David Williams. Ergo, many GOPers are voting with their feet this year. One has to assume that they'll be back next year. Thus, while one might be comforted by the PPP poll, which showed Obama doing no worse than trailing by high single digits in a state where he was crushed in 2008, that sampling issue has to be a major caveat to the results.
Two polls down South this week were a bit of a buzzkill for the president, though one of them came in a state that is not on anyone's target list. That state is Alabama, where Republicans were in the lead against Obama, no matter which Republican was offered up. Even Sarah Palin held a lead, albeit a pathetic one (45-43), given the redness of the state. With more...ahem...electable Republicans in the mix, Obama trailed Romney (56-34) and Perry (52-35) by wide margins. The poll was conducted by the local crew at the Capital Survey Research Center, a longtime player in the Alabama polling game.
Meanwhile, PPP gave us arguably the most depressing poll of the week for the president, and it was in a state he carried in 2008. In North Carolina, despite improving polling numbers for Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue (more later), Obama's numbers are the worst they have been in ages. Against the leading three Republicans, Obama is either tied (Perry), leading by one (Romney) or leading by two (Bachmann). Where the depression sets in is in Tom Jensen's analysis of the undecided voters. They prefer GOP candidates at the legislative level by better than two-to-one, and their approval of the president ranges from 5-10%. Safe to say that come November 2012, they are going to be difficult to coax into the president's camp.
On the primary front, the biggest news this week was out west. California, despite its' dyed-in-the-wool blue state status, will provide a critical mass of delegates on the GOP side. And this week, the LA Times/USC poll hinted at a true tossup in that GOP primary in California. Both Romney and Perry pace the field at 22%, while only Ron Paul (11%) and Michele Bachmann (10%) also scoring in double digits.
The House of Ras hits the GOP horse race in the key state of Iowa. The Perry surge is evident here as well, and the Michele Bachmann firewall seems to be jittery, at best. Perry led the field (29%), well ahead of Bachmann (18%), Romney (17%), and Paul (14%).
Finally, and somewhat predictably, PPP has Perry boat-racing the field in a southern state. In this case, it is Kentucky, where Perry (39%) almost triples up Romney (15%) and more than triples up Ron Paul (11%).
The bottom line on the primary front is this: while Perry may well be another in a string of GOP flavors of the month (as Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann whimper softly in the dark somewhere), it has to be noted that no candidate in the GOP field to date has put up numbers like this. Even when Mitt Romney was the consensus favorite in the field, he was looking at numbers that rarely, if ever, cracked 30%.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: Democrats have to feel pretty decent about both polls which dropped this week. Early in the week, a poll by WBUR-TV in Massachusetts caught a lot of attention, as it chipped at the long-held assumption that Sen. Scott Brown was going to be virtually impossible to dislodge next year. Brown still held a lead over his Democratic rivals, but he was under 50% against all of them, and one Democrat (Elizabeth Warren) held him to a single digit lead (44-35). Against the balance of the Democratic field, the margin widened noticeably, with Brown holding advantages that ranged between 15-18 points.
Meanwhile, PPP's poll in West Virginia might have induced a little heartburn at DGA headquarters (more on this later), but the DSCC had to be pretty pleased. The poll showed that, even when paired against top-tier Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin had a lead that was (a) in double digits and (b) above the 50% threshold. The margin, as it happened, stood at sixteen points (52-36), which was considerably closer than either fellow GOP Rep. David McKinley (60-24) or 2010 rival John Raese (62-23) could manage. Raese's swoon is especially telling: folks, it was eleven months ago that Raese was actually tied with Manchin in polling for that seat.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Democrats had to be doing a little bit of a Snoopy Dance in Wisconsin, with the news that veteran Rep. Tammy Baldwin would be entering the U.S. Senate race there. Baldwin, who has represented the Madison area for over a decade, was long rumored to make this bid. That became a virtual certainty once popular former Sen. Russ Feingold elected not to seek office next year. Baldwin could still see a primary challenger on the Dem side, as both current Rep. Ron Kind (WI-03) and former Rep. Steve Kagen (WI-08) have pondered bids. On the GOP side, the field is getting thicker, with state House speaker Jeff Fitzgerald and former Rep. Mark Neumann already in, and former Gov. Tommy Thompson flirting with the race, as well.
- Back to Massachusetts, where we will soon learn just how much Scott Brown's word is worth. Back when it was revealed that one of his advisors was behind a spoof website attacking one of his potential Democratic opponents (Alan Khazei), Brown made all of the proper "no one better do that shit on my watch again" motions. Well...ahem...less than a month later, an anti-Elizabeth Warren website pops up. And, to the surprise of essentially no one, a Brown advisor is behind it.
- Whee! Time for some high-priced, top-shelf cat fud in Connecticut, where Linda McMahon looks like she is ready to toss her hat into the ring (sorry, couldn't resist) again. The Republican, who lost to Richard Blumenthal in 2010 by 12 points, is likely to face a challenge from former Rep. Chris Shays, who was busy pissing and moaning this week about having to face McMahon, who is known for (a) bare-knuckled campaigning and (b) having gobs of money.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
THE POLLS: There are two special elections this week to replace a Republican (Nevada's Dean Heller, now in the Senate) and a Democrat (New York's Anthony Weiner, now out of the public eye). All indications are that at the end of the week, the likely partisan breakdown in those seats will be 2-0 in favor of the GOP.
National Democrats, sadly, have pretty much ignored the race in NV-02, and the early voting stats there are exceptionally pessimistic for the Democrats. This has led to an interesting rift this week, as the Blue Dog coalition of center-right Democrats (which has endorsed Marshall) criticized the DCCC for not playing in this seat.
The DCCC is most definitely playing in the other special election scheduled for Tuesday night, and new polling from Siena explains why the D-trip is dropping coin in NY-09. The pollster, which sounded the alarm last month when they showed Democrat David Weprin only up six in this nominally Dem district, released new numbers this week showing Republican Robert Turner with the 50-44 edge. This came on the heels of GOP pollster Magellan releasing similar numbers (giving Turner a 45-40 advantage). What's more, PPP (whose own poll on the race comes out later in the weekend) tweeted that their poll showed a similarly depressing set of nums for the Democrats.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Curious about the new House districts for 2012? Our own JeffMd has been putting together a pretty impressive Google Maps project that produces overlay maps for all of the states with completed redistricting. Check it out!
- Some interesting redistricting-based goings-on out of Michigan, where Gary Peters surprised just about everyone by announcing that he would be running in the Detroit-metro based 14th district, where he will engage in an incumbent-on-incumbent primary with freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke. The nearly unanimous assumption had been that Peters, whose district was shot out from under him when Michigan had to shed a district, would challenge veteran Rep. Sander Levin in the more suburban 9th district. Meanwhile, John Conyers announced that he will run again in the Detroit-based 13th district, but almost immediately got primary challenges in the form of a pair of state legislators.
- Meanwhile, in the newly-open WI-02, the Democratic jockeying has begun in one of the bluest districts in the Midwest. State legislators Mark Pocan and Kelda Roys jumped in with haste. Meanwhile, state senator Jon Erpenbach will make the call on a House bid in the very near future. A complicating factor for him--if the proposed recall election of GOP Gov. Scott Walker goes off as planned, Erpenbach might be an attractive gubernatorial prospect for the Democrats.
THE RACE FOR THE STATE HOUSE:
THE POLLS: PPP gives us two polls in Dem-held states traveling on markedly different vectors. In West Virginia, where voters will head to the polls in a matter of weeks, the race has narrowed dramatically and a bit disturbingly. Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D), according to the pollster, enjoyed a modest six-point advantage (46-40) over Republican challenger Bill Maloney. This is the first poll to date that showed the Democratic incumbent leading by only single digits. By way of contrast, a poll earlier in the week conducted by a local pollster (Repass) for the WV Chamber of Commerce showed Tomblin with a much wider lead (40-24). Of course, this might be a rare time where a CoC poll cannot be dismissed as GOP-friendly, as the Chamber endorsed Tomblin.
But if PPP was a bit of a buzzkill in West Virginia, they also provided a spark of hope for Dems that might have long written off one of their own in North Carolina. Their monthly survey there showed Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue close to parity in job approval (40/44), her best performance literally in years. Meanwhile, Perdue has also drawn within four points of Pat McCrory (R) in a perspective gubernatorial rematch (45-41). That is the closest that race has been in a long while, as well. In addition, Perdue now leads two alternative Republican candidates by 5-10 points (state Ag Commissioner Steve Troxler and Rep. Renee Ellmers). This all appears to be largely the result of Perdue's handling of the crisis that was Hurricane Irene in the Tar Heel State, handling for which she has received high marks. Whether or not this is the start of a reassessment of Perdue, or an ephemeral example of the "rally effect", remains to be seen.
Finally, one poll which popped over the weekend last week confirmed the absolute drubbing incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear is visiting upon the GOP in Kentucky. There, according to Braun Research, Beshear enjoyed a 54-25 lead over Republican nominee David Williams, with perennial third-partier Gatewood Galbraith back at 7%. As PPP noted last week, this is carrying over to downballot races, where Braun confirmed that a Democratic sweep could well be on the way.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Not that it was a surprise, but Democrats got some good news this week when their #1 recruit in Montana finally pulled the tigger on a bid. Attorney General Steve Bullock made it official this week, after months where it was essentially assumed that he would jump in. Several Republicans are looking like sure things, most notably former Rep. Rick Hill. Remember that despite the relative redness of the terrain in Big Sky country, this is a Democratic governorship: Brian Schweitzer is term-limited.
- Apparently, Republican Peter Kinder is still swinging away in Missouri, which is probably the best news Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon received all week. Kinder welcomed none other than Karl Rove this week, as the purveyor of "the math" lent his name to the campaign of the scandal-bitten Lt. Governor (and strip club afficionado). That's good news for us, since even local media outlets were polling this week on whether or not Kinder should drop out of the gubernatorial race, amid the many unsavory revelations that have popped up about him, his penchant for living high on the government dime, and his penchant for pursuing strippers that catch his eye.
- We'll close the digest this week with a tweet that adds to our "wait and see" file. In New Hampshire, local reporter Josh McElveen tweeted this week that in the next few weeks, we will know whether or not Democratic Gov. John Lynch will be seeking a fifth term. PPP polled the race earlier in the summer, and found that Democrats might struggle to hold this state house if Lynch elects to stand down.