The latest Associated Press polling on same-sex marriage suggests that Americans have no clue when it comes to answering poll questions.
"Should the government give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, or not?"
Yes: 53%
No: 44%
"Would you favor or opposite a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman."
Favor: 48%
Oppose: 43%
That's right. The same set of poll respondents want (by a majority) legal recogition for same-sex marriages AND (by a plurality) want to write into our constitution a total ban on same-sex marriage.
Perhaps just as confusing, according to the same AP polling, only 42% of Americans think there own state should legalize same-sex marriage, while 45% are opposed (despite the 53% favoring legal recognition!).
I don't know what we can conclude from all of this. All I can do is analyze the totality of the data. In 2011 there have been eleven national polls that have asked American adults in one way or another as to whether they favor same-sex marriage or are opposed to it. There is no doubt about the results.
- Averaging the eleven polls, 49.7% of Americans favor same-sex marriage, while 45.0% are opposed.
- None of eleven polls shows a majority of Americans opposed to same-sex marriage,
- Seven of the eleven polls show a majority of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage.
2011 Same-Sex Marriage Polling Results
AP |
53%-44% |
8/22 |
PRRI |
47% - 47% |
8/29 |
ABC/WaPo |
51% - 45% |
7/20 |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
51%-46% |
7/16 |
Quinnipiac |
46%-48% (rv) |
7/11 |
Gallup |
53% - 45% |
5/19 |
PRRI |
51% - 43% |
5/18 |
CNN |
51% - 47% |
4/13 |
ABC/WaPo |
53% - 44% |
3/10 |
Pew |
45% - 46% |
3/1 |
General Social Survey |
46% - 40% |
2/25 |
North Carolina bigots may win their
statewide battle to embed hatred into their constitution on a technicality (holding their referendum on the constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage at the same time as their Republican primary), but there is no question that in the end they will have failed.
Just as opinions on interracial marriage have steadily and inexorably changed in favor over the last 50 years (at about a rate of 1.5% per annum)
so too are opinions on same sex marriage changing -- at an even greater rate of about 1.7% per annum.
9:52 AM PT: More on the AP poll and some of its more disturbing implications via cajunboylgb's diary