Obama Needs to Withdraw From the 2012 Election
The results from the Congressional special elections last night should be all the evidence anyone needs…that Democrats are headed for an electoral disaster in 2012 if Obama is at the top of the ticket.
Just as the loss of Ted Kennedy’s senate seat in the special election in Massachusetts foretold the Democratic collapse in the 2010 elections, we have been given fair warning. Obama and the Democrats brushed off the Massachusetts results then, and paid the price. The country cannot afford to have them ignore the clear signal now. The Democratic base, and the flood of new voters attracted to turn out in the 2008 election hoping for “change you can believe in”, are disgusted.
And who can blame them? The Obama Administration has been an endless display of give-aways and capitulation to the Republicans, and a complete failure to defend the core principles and programs of the Democratic party. From the health care fiasco, to the extension of the Bush tax cuts for the rich, to the so-called ‘deficit reduction’ agreement slashing trillions from government spending without a penny of revenue from the rich and giant corporations, Obama has essentially proposed and agreed to Republican policies. We now have a spectrum of political debate that is bounded on the “left” (ho ho ho) by a president who proposes raising the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67, and on the right by a party that wants to turn Medicare into a voucher program. Where are the three-quarters of the citizens who want a strong defense of Medicare and increased taxes on the millionaires and corporations supposed to go?
Malaise in the Democratic Party would be bad enough in decent economic times. In these terrible economic times, it is catastrophic. The only chance Obama had was to make this a “choice” election (between clearly distinguishable Democratic and Republican policies and visions for the future), rather than a referendum on Obama. But that slim hope is long gone. The die is cast. The economy and unemployment in 2012 are going to be horrible, Obama has been ‘in charge’, and there is no escaping the fact that this will be a ‘referendum’ election on Obama.
No-one should delude themselves that Obama will be saved by the Republicans nominating someone too “extreme” to be elected. Those of us old enough to remember the 1980 election recall the glee that Democrats felt when first hearing that the “unelectable” Ronald Reagan would be the Republican nominee. With this terrible economy, and all the campaign money that the Republicans will have, any of several current Republican candidates could handily beat Obama.
The only chance the Democrats have to win this election is to have as their candidate someone who was not in Washington, D.C. these past few years. Under the current path, that simple “outsider” status will be a huge advantage for the Republicans….when the hatred and mistrust of Washington, D.C. is so high.
Moreover, having someone who will vigorously campaign on core Democratic principles and programs, presents the opportunity of re-awakening the Democratic base….which has been so disillusioned with Obama.
Consider the following two scenarios. Under scenario ‘b’ (not optimal), Obama stays in the race, and (1) the Republican base is hugely motivated to vote him out…far beyond any generic opposition to a “Democrat”; (2) The Democratic base is disillusioned, bitter and apathetic….and the only hope is to ‘scare’ them that a Republican would be ‘worse’; (3) independents go with the simple reaction that since things are so bad, and Obama was in charge, we need “change”.
Under scenario ‘a’, Obama drops out (or is forced out in a primary challenge) and the Democrats run someone who has not been in D.C. for at least the last few years. This results in (1) the Republican base is still Republican, but the extra momentum of opposing someone who has been so extensively vilified is diffused. Four years of massive efforts to build up the negative ‘brand name’ of Obama goes to waste. The ‘race’ and ‘birther’ motivation is negated. This can’t help but diminish to some extent the enthusiasm of the Republican side. (2) The Democratic base is reinvigorated, and the strong Democratic themes that have been obscured or compromised away over the last few years are revitalized. This can’t help but increase the campaign efforts of Democratic activists and boost turnout…perhaps substantially. (Recall how well the Democrat did in the special election in upstate NY earlier this year….blasting Republican proposals to cut Medicare, and calling for a new tax on millionaires. Unfortunately, Obama completely diffused that success by soon afterwards ‘putting Medicare and Social Security on the table’ himself…thereby trampling the winning Democratic theme.) As for the ‘fear of Republicans’ trump card, nothing is lost. Anyone who would turn out to vote for Obama for that reason will surely turn out to vote for a replacement Democratic candidate. Quite likely, many more will. (3) For independents, the “change” reaction is neutralized, since both candidates are going to be representing change. Most importantly, the election can truly become a “choice” election, rather than a referendum on Obama.
The last possible chance Obama had was to ‘pivot’ immediately after Labor Day and run a full-scale ‘contrast’ election and champion big, true progressive Democratic policies. Instead, he came out with another famous Obama proposal…..weak and 80% Republican in policy content. Inevitably, as has happened repeatedly, Republicans will strip out the few Democratic shreds and Obama will ‘compromise’ and agree to a basically Republican plan to grant still more tax cuts. The tragedy is that even if Obama got the full proposal…it’s a weak-ass proposal and would fall far short of making any kind of difference for the economy in 2012. Much too little, much too late.
If Obama truly cares about the future of the country, not to mention the future of the Democratic Party, he will announce that he will not seek re-election in 2012. If he doesn’t, Democrats need to run a primary challenge and force him out. If neither of those two things happen, and Obama runs at the top of the ticket in 2012, God help us all.