This is my idea of what a COI court-drawn map of Ohio would look like.
The tally is 9 R, 6 D, 1 T
I think that's pretty fair for a GOP-leaning swing state.
By the end of the decade, this could look similar to a Democratic dummymander, however, ending up at a 12-4 just like the GOP gerrymander.
On to the map.
Statewide:
I'm going to start with the rural districts, since you can see them fine in this large map.
2nd (dark green): Jean Schmidt (R) vs. GOP challenger? (R)
Schmidt's not very popular, and a strong primary challenge could probably displace her. Her territory gets much more rural, as I tried to fit as many Cincinnati suburbs as possible into the 1st and 8th. This left much of Clermont County and a bunch of rural areas in S. Ohio. The PVI, at R+14, is out of reach for any Democrat, even a conservaDem. I tried to make this a S. Ohio rural COI, but had to add about 100,000 suburban voters, not enough to overwhelm the rurals.
5th (red): Jim Jordan? (R) vs. Bob Latta (R)
Jim Jordan's district got split in half due to population loss in W. Ohio, but Bob Latta seems weaker than Steve Austria, so I'm assuming he'll run here and win the primary, which is why I kept his district number. However, he's got a tough choice: his base of Lima is here; Latta's Bowling Green base is not. While only 4 1/2 counties here are from Jordan's district, they are pretty populous. At R+13, no matter how brutal the primary is, Democrats aren't winning here. Boehner endorsing Latta could affect this as well. Further, the 7th district directly south of this one would look appetizing as well...
7th (gray): Steve Austria (R) vs. Jim Jordan? (R)
Austria only has one county of his here, but not all of the rest is from Jordan. While Springfield has lots of votes, Austria is a sophomore without much clout. Jordan could probably beat him as well. This one is R+16, the second most republican in the state.
9th (pale blue): Marcy Kaptur (D)
Latta may live here, but he's not running here. It's D+7, safe for Kaptur. It's more compact, adding some Lean Republican territory to safe Dem territory along the lakefront.
6th (black): Bill Johnson (R) vs. Bob Gibbs (R)
Much of Fairfield and Licking Counties here means a Blue Dog no longer has much of a shot. It's R+8, and instead we turn to what would be an interesting primary between the anonymous Johnson and the apparently more liked by leadership Gibbs. Again, a Boehner endorsement could be a big deal here for Gibbs. Interestingly, this a very non-ugly way to negate the impact of Athens in a district.
5th (old 17th) (yellow): Tim Ryan (D)
Ryan's district lost tons of population and has to extend southward. This entire district is trending red pretty quickly, and it might be smart for Ryan to run for governor in 2014 before he's in a perpetual swing district. Right now, it's D+4, but I'd wager it's at least R+3 by the end of the decade. For now, Ryan is safe. Former Rep. Zack Space could run in 2014 if Ryan jumps to the gubernatorial race.
16th (green): Jim Renacci (R)
Renacci is a winner from the court-drawn map, expanding while getting safer. His now R+6 district keeps all of Stark County and adds heavily red territory to the west. He should be safe here.
1st (blue): Steve Chabot (R) vs. Steve Dreihaus? (D)
Driehaus would have a good shot here, as a pro-life Blue Dog in a D+2.5 district. Chabot's seniority may negate his conservatism, but it'd be a marquee race, especially with Black turnout higher in 2012 than 2010 or 2014. All of Cincinnati is in this district.
8th (periwinkle): John Boehner (R)
The speaker loses his rural areas, becoming a completely suburban representative. This district, at R+19, is the most Republican in the state, and he's 100% safe.
3rd (purple): Mike Turner (R)
Turner gets a district entirely in the Dayton Area, and it's safe for him at R+4.5 and Lean R in an open year. Another district probably trending rightward as Dayton loses population.
15th (orange): BATTLE ROYALE! (D)
Many Democrats will be running for this, which is basically the same vote sink the Republicans drew in their own map. It's D+16.
12th (pale blue): Pat Tiberi (R) vs. Steve Stivers (R)
This will be an interesting primary. Stivers seems very popular, while Tiberi has seniority and is more conservative. I completely surrounded the Columbus seat, making this one as suburban as possible.
14th (puke): Steve LaTourette (R)
To give Summit County it's own district, LaTourette instead goes into more of Trumbull and nearly all of Portage. It's R+2.5, pretty safe for LaTourette but vulnerable in a wave year or open seat situation. I'd call it Lean R, Tilt R when open
11th (green): Marcia Fudge (D)
This district, I just now realized, is plurality White (45.9 to 45.5) VAP. This would be changed by a court, so it'll look a bit uglier than this. Oh well. Safe D anyways.
13th (salmon): Betty Sutton (D)
As Akron slowly withers and dies, Sutton's now D+3 district will become very swingy and possibly R-leaning. For now, she's fine. Besides Summit County, I added Kent (same COI as Akron) and the Eastern quarter of Medina for population. I then had to enter Cuyahoga, gaining some Republican suburbs, Parma Heights, and 1/3 of Parma (I decided it was better to split one suburb three ways than two suburbs twice).
10th (pink): Dennis Kucinich (D) vs. D in Primary
It's a competitive district for everyone's favorite Democrat who ACTUALLY pals around with terrorists. Most of Huron County and some of Sandusky were left over, so I put them here because they don't fit anywhere else. Elyria County and Western Cuyahoga are here as well. It's D+3, fine for any Ohio Democrat NOT named Dennis Kucinich. Unfortunately for Democrats, this Ohio Democrat IS named Dennis Kucinich, so hopefully a primary ensues.
And there's my map.